Verlander’s decline

[Sports Guy]

Lots of talk about the Verlander rumor in the other thread. Let’s look at the merits of his actual performance:

K rate has declined each of the last 4 years. This year, it has gone from 9.51 last year to 7.73 this year.

His swingstr%, which has also dropped off a lot the last 3-4 years is down to 17.6%, from 19% in 2022.

His str%, which was 68.5% last year is at 63.9% this year, the lowest he has had since 2014.  His BB rate is double where it’s been the last few years and the highest it’s been since 2017.

His FIP is the highest it’s been since 2017 and it’s one of the highest numbers of his career.

Exit velo and hard hit% is the highest since at least 2015.  
 

And then there is this from Schoenfeld:

Verlander has been pitching better than Scherzer with a 3.15 ERA, including a 1.69 mark over his past six starts in which he has held batters to a .167 average and just one home run in 37⅓ innings. Don't mistake this version of Verlander as peak Verlander, however, or even the Cy Young winner of last season. Even over this stretch, his strikeout-to-walk ratio is a mediocre 32-to-16 and his swinging strike rate, which ranked in the 90th percentile in 2019 (pre-Tommy John surgery), is down to the 37th percentile. His hard-hit rate has also dropped, from the 74th percentile last season to the 39th. It's much more of a grind when he's out there on the mound, and he's relying on his knowledge as much as stuff these days.

 

So, all these bad signs and they want high level, top prospects for him. 
 

I’ll take him under certain scenarios but I don’t think those scenarios are realistic.

[MarCakes21]

I imagine there's a few things at play without the numbers here.  He knows he can't live in the zone as much, which means he has to nibble more.  That shows in the str%, and the resulting BB rate.

When you can't get the swingstr% as much, you will get the increased exit velo and hard hit.

Now, that being said, he clearly still knows how to pitc.  He's got a 3.15ERA and 1.69 over past 6.  Do you think he can show up for the big game?  If they eat half his salary, can you stomach him at $21.5 mil per?  Obviously depends on return cost, but what if it's "just" Ortiz play a lower level guy.

[Pickles]

You'd have to think that of all people Mike Elias realizes this isn't 2015 more than anyone.

[interloper]

Yeah it really depends on who we'd send in return. Because there's a package of prospects that's appropriate for "Legendary Ace Verlander" and there's a package of prospects that's appropriate for "Wiley Veteran 5-and-Dive Verlander". And the latter Verlander is still a very, very good pitcher. But the expectations are different. 

Verlander is now more on the "he helps us get there" side than the "he's winning us the World Series" side. Which is fine! But the trade has to reflect that. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by interloper

[Emory Eagle]

Don't love it either.  Elias in a bit of a tough spot here.  Maybe should have added some SP depth during the off-season... 

Hopefully they eventually call Detroit's bluff and pick up an SP and RP for a reasonable price. 

[Sports Guy]

He has given up 4 or more runs in 10 postseason starts. He had 33 starts total.

[banks703]

I saw something somewhere where the writer wrote that the three players that the Mets should target from the Orioles are GrayRod, Cowser and Kjerstad because Jackson Holliday is probably not available.

1. GrayRod is probably more unavailable than is Holliday

2. Even if the Mets ate ALL of Verlander's money, the O's are not sending them either of these three guys

3. As @Sports Guy notes, Verlander 2023 is not Verlander 2015 and not even Verlander 2022. Someone may pony up the prospects for the 40 year old HOFer but I really hope that it isn't the O's. I would be somewhat disappointed if this deal were to materialize and they sent any of their top 15 talent outside of Norby, Hall (it would sting but I'd send him) or Wagner. 

Povich and Seth Johnson are the only realistic ML starting options who are remotely close (and both are probably 2024 at the earliest) so I don't see Povich being included and I am high on Seth Johnson so I'd be disappointed if they dealt him to acquire a 40 year old Verlander. 

The entire world knows that the O's, like everyone else needs pitching and yes Verlander is a 1st ballot HOFer but I just don't think that he's a 2023 option, let alone 2024 and 2025, which is what the O's would be on the hook for should he end up in Baltimore. 

[Frobby]

I do wonder if the O’s analytics would help him, just as the Astros analytics did when he joined Houston from Detroit.  I don’t know much about where the Mets and their coaching staff are on that stuff, but Buck’s not exactly a trailblazer in that area.   

At the same time, Verlander is 40 years old and eventually Father Time always wins.   
 

[RZNJ]

Just now, Frobby said:

I do wonder if the O’s analytics would help him, just as the Astros analytics did when he joined Houston from Detroit.  I don’t know much about where the Mets and their coaching staff are on that stuff, but Buck’s not exactly a trailblazer in that area.   

At the same time, Verlander is 40 years old and eventually Father Time always wins.   
 

You would think he’s using what he learned while with the Astros.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I do wonder if the O’s analytics would help him, just as the Astros analytics did when he joined Houston from Detroit.  I don’t know much about where the Mets and their coaching staff are on that stuff, but Buck’s not exactly a trailblazer in that area.   

At the same time, Verlander is 40 years old and eventually Father Time always wins.   
 

Some type of turnaround is possible. he would also be coming to a tougher division and league in general, although  the park should be favorable to him.

But I’m not betting too prospects on any of that.

[interloper]

The thing I think about most is his 2nd year. Because there's a good chance that's going to be a lost year, just statistically speaking at his age. So - what is the value of that year? It almost certainly won't be worth the $40 or whatever million. And on top of that the extra year is probably increasing the prospect cost as well. It's the rare deal where I sort of wish we didn't have the extra year of control. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by interloper

[Fan4Life]

He was my primary target originally.. but after looking deeper into his game logs.. I am not all that interested anymore. Especially at the cost of the prospects it likely will take to get him. ERod is likely a better target, but as I said in a previous thread, all of the available pitching has warts. I don't prefer to give up a top 10 prospect for anyone currently. I prefer a more subtle gamble with lower level prospects. 

Edited August 1, 2023 by Fan4Life

[interloper]

Just now, Fan4Life said:

He was my primary target originally.. but after looking deeper into his game logs.. I am not all that interested anymore. Especially at the cost of the prospects it likely will take to get him. ERod is likely a better target, but as I said in a previous thread, all of the available pitching has warts. I don't prefer to give up a top 10 pick for anyone currently. I prefer a more subtle gamble with lower level prospects. 

ERod has always been - and remains - the best fit IMO. 

[interloper]

If we want to look for positive spin aspects of adding Verlander, I can't think of a trade that would provide a bigger confidence boost to the guys in the clubhouse. They already believe they're a post season team, but this would really remove all doubt from their minds that they're a WS contender. 

The ace of the team is Bautista, let's face it. They wouldn't need Verlander to put the team on his back, just guide the ship into the postseason. 

The question is - what is an appropriate price for that? 

[deward]

10 minutes ago, interloper said:

ERod has always been - and remains - the best fit IMO. 

He hasn't looked great since he came back from the IL.