Pay the Man!

[Art Wing]

You really think 2 draft picks is more valuable than 4 years of Roberts.? Of course if those picks result in Wieters and Matusz, but how likely is that. The average 2 draft picks don't ever make the show. Roberts will have better than league average value for 2, most likely 3 of those 4 years and most likely no less than that in year 4.

I agree with this but is it 4 years AFTER 2009 or STARTING in 2009?

[geschinger]

You really think 2 draft picks is more valuable than 4 years of Roberts.? Of course if those picks result in Wieters and Matusz, but how likely is that. The average 2 draft picks don't ever make the show. Roberts will have better than league average value for 2, most likely 3 of those 4 years and most likely no less than that in year 4.

If you want to compare keeping Roberts to losing Roberts you can't look at it as simply 2 draft picks or 4 years of Roberts without including the $~40m that could be allocated elsewhere.

I would agree that if we ignore the money that 4 years of Roberts has a good chance of being more valuable than 2 draft picks. However in a comparison of Roberts and 2 draft picks / ~$40m available for other needs I believe that tilts the equation away from keeping Roberts as being the best option when we consider the risk/reward.

[mweb]

Last time I heard this was for Mora..and that has really worked out well:rolleyes:

He actually has been well worth his contract so far.

[Intimidator301]

I just can't see it happening until Hudson signs.

Hudson is a similar player to B-Rob, just a bit older and with less power. What he gets on the free agent market is going to help form the basis for what Roberts will be able to get next year.

If he has to settle for some minor league invite, then B-Rob will probably have no choice but to jump at whatever most recent offer hte O's have made.

If Hudson gets a lot more....the baseline for Roberts goes up.

Actually, Orlando Hudson is 2 months younger then BRob.

And I'm not sure that Roberts has more power then Hudson. Actually, I'm not sure Roberts is that much better then Hudson, or atleast heads and above better then Hudson.

They both played their first full seasons in 2003 (as starters), and since then they've been fairly close.

Roberts since 2003

Games- 863

BA- .284

HR- 58

2B- 244

3B- 29

OB%- .355

SLG%- .416

OPS- 771

Orlando Hudson since 2003

Games- 811

BA- .282

HR- 64

2B- 169

3B- 39

OB%- .346

SLG%- .433

OPS- 779

Based off that, it appears Hudson has more power then Roberts also. Roberts steals more bases and hits more doubles and is maybe a better defender, but BA is close, OB% is close, and Hudson has the edge in HR, 3B, SLG%, OPS.

After seeing their stats, Hudson is actually closer to Roberts then I first thought. Roberts better hope that Hudson gets a pretty good deal. Because IF Hudson gets $5 mil a year, I'm not sure Roberts is going to get $10 mil a year from anyone else.

Also, this is why we should extend Roberts. Why would any team give up a prospect of any value for Roberts, when a guy like Hudson is out there?

IMO, Roberts isn't worth as much money as he probably thinks, and Roberts is probably worth more to the Orioles then he is to any other teams. So, if I'm the O's I wouldn't give him 4 years on top of his 09 deal, but what I would do is offer him this..Tear up his 09 deal, and offer him a new 4/$40 mil deal. This way, the Orioles don't have to go 5, and it gives Roberts a raise for 09.

And since Roberts will be 31 all of 09 season, the Orioles have Roberts from the ages of 31-34. He should be pretty productive still through those ages.

[mweb]

First off, Roberts is much more valuable than Hudson.

As far as a contract offer, I'd up it to 3/31.5 with an option for 10.5 with a 1.5M buyout.

[El Gordo]

If you want to compare keeping Roberts to losing Roberts you can't look at it as simply 2 draft picks or 4 years of Roberts without including the $~40m that could be allocated elsewhere.

I would agree that if we ignore the money that 4 years of Roberts has a good chance of being more valuable than 2 draft picks. However in a comparison of Roberts and 2 draft picks / ~$40m available for other needs I believe that tilts the equation away from keeping Roberts as being the best option when we consider the risk/reward.

If Roberts regresses to league average by 2013, as Drungo has speculated, that would be about equivalent to his '06 performance, which was worth $10.9 mm. So over a 4 year contract, starting in '10, he would be worth more than the 4/40 we might pay him.

[Big Mac]

The Orioles would be pretty foolish to move off of 3/30 before Hudson signs. Once, Hudson signs for one year at about 5 million, the O's will have much more leverage.

I personally am in favor of a B-Rob extension, but I'm just acknowledging that it would be pretty dumb to unneccessarily up our offer right now.

I just don't see us getting much in a trade for him, and I'd rather have Ronberts for 4 more seasons than the draft picks.

[carolinaoriole]

If Hudson gets 1 or 2 years, the Orioles would be foolish to up their current offer.

We can put all the stats we want out there but the bottom line is a player is only worth what the other team(s) are willing to pay him. He is only worth what the market dictates.

Good chance things get worse before they get better.

You can't just give him another year and another 10-15 million dollars just to keep him here and appease the fans.

I don't see any reason to throw some foolish(foolish meaning way more than needed) contract out there just to get it done.

I agree with every word

[El Gordo]

Actually, Orlando Hudson is 2 months younger then BRob.

And I'm not sure that Roberts has more power then Roberts. Actually, I'm not sure Roberts is that much better then Hudson, or atleast heads and above better then Hudson.

They both played their first full seasons in 2003, and since then they've been fairly close.

Roberts since 2003

BA- .284

HR- 58

2B- 244

3B- 29

OB%- .355

SLG%- .416

OPS- 771

Orlando Hudson since 2003

BA- .282

HR- 64

2B- 169

3B- 39

OB%- .346

SLG%- .433

OPS- 779

Based off that, it appears Hudson has more power then Roberts also. Roberts steals more bases and hits more doubles and is maybe a better defender, but BA is close, OB% is close, and Hudson has the edge in HR, 3B, SLG%, OPS.

After seeing their stats, Hudson is actually closer to Roberts then I first thought. Roberts better hope that Hudson gets a pretty good deal. Because IF Hudson gets $5 mil a year, I'm not sure Roberts is going to get $10 mil a year from anyone else.

Hudson's best year was 2007 when he put up a .361 wOBA and was worth $12.5 mm. Since 2005 Roberts has been worth over $20mm in each year save '06, when he was recovering from his arm injury. Last season he put up a .369 wOBA and was worth $21.9 MM. Over the course of their careers since 2002, Hudson has been worth $54.1 mm and Roberts $88.0 mm, according to Fangraphs.

[Big Mac]

BTW, anyone who is a facebook user who wants to see B-Rob extended can join this group:

http://www.facebook.com/home.php?ref=home#/group.php?sid=2fb1a54a92931c1d183e7e8b535ca7a1&gid=54229561956

[geschinger]

If Roberts regresses to league average by 2013, as Drungo has speculated, that would be about equivalent to his '06 performance, which was worth $10.9 mm. So over a 4 year contract, starting in '10, he would be worth more than the 4/40 we might pay him.

That assumes that you are putting the $40m saved into the inefficent FA marketplace instead of investing it in other ways that have a much better return on investment. I wouldn't go any more than 3 years (from this year) for Roberts, especially in this market and especially when the market is much more likely to be down for the next couple of years than it is to be like it has in the bubble of the past few years.

[Sports Guy]

Here is the real question:

Do you pay BRob what he is worth or do you pay him how the market dictates?

In other words, if the market for top second baseman right now isn't even 3/30(the offer we have made), do you go higher than that just because BRob is worth more than that or do you say, this is the way things are, it is up to BRob to deal with that?

[mweb]

Here is the real question:

Do you pay BRob what he is worth or do you pay him how the market dictates?

In other words, if the market for top second baseman right now isn't even 3/30(the offer we have made), do you go higher than that just because BRob is worth more than that or do you say, this is the way things are, it is up to BRob to deal with that?

We don't know what the market for a top 2nd baseman is right now, because one was not available this off-season imo. I would say an offer like the one I suggested is likely in the middle of the spectrum, less than what he's worth, maybe more than he'd get on the free market.

[geschinger]

Here is the real question:

Do you pay BRob what he is worth or do you pay him how the market dictates?

In a marketplace that is more likely to get worse before it gets better it makes no sense to pay him more than the market dictates.

In other words, if the market for top second baseman right now isn't even 3/30(the offer we have made), do you go higher than that just because BRob is worth more than that or do you say, this is the way things are, it is up to BRob to deal with that?

No, I'd even be willing to play hardball... The 3/30 offer is on the table for the next week or two and if the market continues to show weakness in what Hudson, etc.. get and he hasn't signed, maybe make it 3/25 or tell him to take his chances in FA next year. That money might be more useful in picking up bargains as we enter into a down cycle in FA marketplace.

[Sports Guy]

In a marketplace that is more likely to get worse before it gets better it makes no sense to pay him more than the market dictates.

No, I'd even be willing to play hardball... The 3/30 offer is on the table for the next week or two and if the market continues to show weakness in what Hudson, etc.. get and he hasn't signed, maybe make it 3/25 or tell him to take his chances in FA next year. That money might be more useful in picking up bargains as we enter into a down cycle in FA marketplace.

Yea, I totally agree with you.

I would keep the offer the same until Hudson signs..Once he does, I would drop it.