John Means - Playoff Starter

[dystopia]

2 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

HOU-CLE back to back are low K opponents.    CLE is famous for it in conjunction with being a bunch of slap hitters, but the Astros blend contact and power in the ideal.

They are 2/3 to the Nationals in fewest team K this year.     It was notable doing this sort, in case we see them, that the Mariners and Twins are at the other end of the spectrum, the only two Clubs over 1500 K already this season.     MIN is 75 K's clear of everyone - five regulars over 30% K rate.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0&team=8&qual=200&sortcol=9&sortdir=default&pagenum=1

And still one of the worst offenses in the league.

[dystopia]

Just now, dystopia said:

And still one of the worst offenses in the league.

Cleveland I mean, obviously.

[banks703]

3 hours ago, dystopia said:

I agree the best out is a strikeout, but that doesn't mean pitchers can't pitch to contact and be successful.

I am not sure that I agree with a K being the best out, especially not when arm injuries continue to increase.

There is a world of data behind the increased intensity of a pitcher hunting strike 3 in a two-strike count.

To me, a 1-pitch pop-out is the perfect out. Not that it would ever happen but a pitcher could throw a perfect game with only 27 pitches if every out was recorded on a 1-pitch pop-out. It’d take 81 pitches to get there with strikeouts.

Stakeouts are sexy but in today’s game, I want my pitchers pitching deepest into games, which almost always means throwing less pitches. Give me the guy that can get outs on the lowest number of pitches. I’ll take that guy all day everyday.  

[Sports Guy]

22 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I am not sure that I agree with a K being the best out, especially not when arm injuries continue to increase.

There is a world of data behind the increased intensity of a pitcher hunting strike 3 in a two-strike count.

To me, a 1-pitch pop-out is the perfect out. Not that it would ever happen but a pitcher could throw a perfect game with only 27 pitches if every out was recorded on a 1-pitch pop-out. It’d take 81 pitches to get there with strikeouts.

Stakeouts are sexy but in today’s game, I want my pitchers pitching deepest into games, which almost always means throwing less pitches. Give me the guy that can get outs on the lowest number of pitches. I’ll take that guy all day everyday.  

…and your staff isn’t going to be that good.

You are complaining about Cano and Cano is the exact pitcher you are describing.

[EdwinRip]

Gibby might pitch game 1.  I think the O’s will want the veteran.

Edited September 24, 2023 by EdwinRip

[DirtyBird]

8 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Gibby might pitch game 1.  I think the O’s will want the veteran.

Pretty sure they will go with their best pitcher.

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, banks703 said:

I am not sure that I agree with a K being the best out, especially not when arm injuries continue to increase.

There is a world of data behind the increased intensity of a pitcher hunting strike 3 in a two-strike count.

To me, a 1-pitch pop-out is the perfect out. Not that it would ever happen but a pitcher could throw a perfect game with only 27 pitches if every out was recorded on a 1-pitch pop-out. It’d take 81 pitches to get there with strikeouts.

Stakeouts are sexy but in today’s game, I want my pitchers pitching deepest into games, which almost always means throwing less pitches. Give me the guy that can get outs on the lowest number of pitches. I’ll take that guy all day everyday.  

As we've shown previously there's a positive correlation between strikeouts and quality of the pitcher. And, actually, that's been the case since essentially the dawn of time. There's no such thing as a pitcher who can reliably get most of his outs on popups, much less one-pitch at bats with popouts. The line of pitchers who can strike people out stretches halfway to Terre Haute.

Also, strikeouts are almost as pitch-efficient as not striking batters out.  Look at some examples. Spencer Strider leads the majors with 13.8 K/9 as a starter. He's averaging 97 pitches and 5.9 innings per start, so 16.4 pitches per inning. Kevin Gausman is leading the AL in K/9 and averages 16.8 pitches per inning. On the other side is Adam Wainwright, who strikes out just 4.9 per nine, and throws 17.7 pitches per inning. Wade Miley is probably the lowest-K starter who's actually good and he averages 15.6 pitches per inning. Kyle Hendricks is another out of the Miley mold, and he averages 15.2 pitches/inning.

So if you can find a unicorn, a good pitcher who doesn't strike out many batters, he might save you as much as 1-2 pitches an inning.

Strikeouts are sexy because good pitchers strike batters out at high rates. So, that's just another way of saying winning is sexy.

Edited September 24, 2023 by DrungoHazewood

[dystopia]

44 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Gibby might pitch game 1.  I think the O’s will want the veteran.

If I'm Bradish I'm pissed if that happens.

[banks703]

15 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

As we've shown previously there's a positive correlation between strikeouts and quality of the pitcher. And, actually, that's been the case since essentially the dawn of time. There's no such thing as a pitcher who can reliably get most of his outs on popups, much less one-pitch at bats with popouts. The line of pitchers who can strike people out stretches halfway to Terre Haute.

Also, strikeouts are almost as pitch-efficient as not striking batters out.  Look at some examples. Spencer Strider leads the majors with 13.8 K/9 as a starter. He's averaging 97 pitches and 5.9 innings per start, so 16.4 pitches per inning. Kevin Gausman is leading the AL in K/9 and averages 16.8 pitches per inning. On the other side is Adam Wainwright, who strikes out just 4.9 per nine, and throws 17.7 pitches per inning. Wade Miley is probably the lowest-K starter who's actually good and he averages 15.6 pitches per inning. Kyle Hendricks is another out of the Miley mold, and he averages 15.2 pitches/inning.

So if you can find a unicorn, a good pitcher who doesn't strike out many batters, he might save you as much as 1-2 pitches an inning.

Strikeouts are sexy because good pitchers strike batters out at high rates. So, that's just another way of saying winning is sexy.

I am in no way disagreeing with any of this info or making any legitimate argument for guys with lower K-rates. I was only stating that I would take a 1-pitch pop-out over a 3-pitch strikeout.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I am in no way disagreeing with any of this info or making any legitimate argument for guys with lower K-rates. I was only stating that I would take a 1-pitch pop-out over a 3-pitch strikeout.

I'll take a 0 pitch perfect game full of batter clock violations.

[banks703]

15 minutes ago, dystopia said:

If I'm Bradish I'm pissed if that happens.

I really think it’ll depend on who they draw. If it’s the Jays, it’d be hard to argue with Gibson’s body of work this season against the Jays (2.14 ERA over 21 innings) although Bradish was equally impressive with his 2.57 ERA over 14 innings.

Had he not ran into some trouble these last few starts a case could even be made for Kremer’s 1.56 ERA over 17 1/3 IP against the Jays this year.

if it’s the Jays I imagine they’ll go Bradish, Gibson, Kremer though I could see a case for GrayRod because he’s been so good the second half. Hell, even Meansy could get a look. 

[banks703]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll take a 0 pitch perfect game full of batter clock violations.

Now we’re talking.  

[Il BuonO]

3 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I really think it’ll depend on who they draw. If it’s the Jays, it’d be hard to argue with Gibson’s body of work this season against the Jays (2.14 ERA over 21 innings) although Bradish was equally impressive with his 2.57 ERA over 14 innings.

Had he not ran into some trouble these last few starts a case could even be made for Kremer’s 1.56 ERA over 17 1/3 IP against the Jays this year.

if it’s the Jays I imagine they’ll go Bradish, Gibson, Kremer though I could see a case for GrayRod because he’s been so good the second half. Hell, even Meansy could get a look. 

There’s no way Rodriguez is left out. Let me clarify that statement. He’ll be one of the first three.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Il BuonO

[banks703]

15 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

There’s no way Rodriguez is left out. Let me clarify that statement. He’ll be one of the first three.

I’m with you but we know how much they prioritize the vets so you can pencil in Gibson for one of those starts, especially after today’s performance and even more so if they draw Toronto. 
 

The remaining games will go:

9/26 Was  Bradish 

9/27 Was  Rodriguez

9/28 Bos   Kremer

9/29 Bos   Means

9/30 Bos  Gibson

10/1  Bos  Bradish 

 

The division round starts 10/7, which would give them plenty of time to set up their three starters for whatever order that they prefer. I agree with you that GrayRod should be one of the top 3 but if they draw Toronto I will not be surprised to see Kremer get the ball in one of the games because he flat-out dominated the Jays this year.

Edit: If the O’s win their next two and Tampa loses one of their next two, that pushes the O’s lead in the division to four games in the loss column. Tampa could not beat them for the division title. Perhaps if that plays out they will skip some turns in the rotation to give extra rest. 

Edited September 24, 2023 by banks703

[Frobby]

17 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Fewer pitches.

 

Can you show evidence to support this claim?  I know it sounds super obvious but is it?  

It’s been proven wrong.  It’s basically a wash because hits extend pitch counts and strikeouts don’t yield hits.  So, your average strikeout takes more pitches than your average non-strikeout, but because 30% of non-strikeouts become hits, you’re trading 1 PA for 2 30% of the time and that adds up.