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Fangraphs article on why their projections hate us

Hallas

By Hallas
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Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan
Malike
Malike

My recommendation is, if you are curious as to what it says, just read it. I'm not the Cliff Notes of the OH.

DrungoHazewood
DrungoHazewood

And they do things like assume that Ryan O' Hearn's last five years of performance are meaningful, and that he's likely not a .850 OPS guy going forward. Orioles fans look at O'Hearn playing awesome f

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Moose Milligan Hangout Grand Counsel

Moose Milligan

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39 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I nearly 100% guarantee that any of their analysts would admit with little or no prodding that the uncertainty in their forecasts, as is true with all baseball team forecasts, is much larger than the separation between many of the teams. Everyone knows, or should know, that when someone says the Blue Jays will win 87 games what they really mean is that the center of the probability distribution is 87 wins, but nobody's gonna be too surprised if they win 77 or 97.

If that means you think nobody has a really valid projection system, that's not wrong. But that's a lot different than singling out anyone in particular like Fangraphs.

Yeah.

But I don't like Fangraphs.

:) 

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DrungoHazewood Hangout Grand Counsel

DrungoHazewood

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34 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

That sounds true in the grand scheme.  Injuries, "hot/cold streaks"... 

Are there certain stats that are more variable than others?  If so, then would a GM goal be about reducing the random variation?  

K% is one that I know we've discussed from a pitching perspective.  Balls in play are subject to more variation than striking someone out.  Same thing for hitting (but a low K%).  Maybe the SigBot is onto the same thing you're talking about because we signed a guy this past offseason who's main value-add skill is his low K%.

Here's a relevant quote from Tom Tango:

Quote

Listen, this idea of the true spread being smaller than the observed spread bothers many people, and they all think they know a way around it.  And they don’t.  They can’t.  Even if they are god.

 

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ledzepp8 Hangout Grand Counsel

ledzepp8

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1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't think you're necessarily wrong.  The Baltimore Inferiority Complex is a very real thing.  A city that might be best known around the country for The Wire...tucked between Washington DC (you know, where things allegedly get done, the nerve center of the free world, Nation's Attic) Philly (Rocky) and NYC (cultural center of...well, everything) and there's an inferiority complex that people from the area have.  Rightly or wrongly, it exists.

But I also don't think you're necessarily correct here, either.  As others have pointed out, Fangraphs has been down on the Orioles the entire season and the Orioles have been consistent throughout the entire season.  I mean, you have to be to win 101 games, be one of two teams, IIRC, that didn't have a losing month and haven't been swept in a series since 2022.  

And yet, they continue to be down on the Orioles.  They can say "our projections" all they want and that's fine.  But maybe at some point they should stop patting themselves on the back and acting like the smartest baseball people on the internet because they've been consistently wrong about this team.  Moreover, they seem to want to double down on it. 

There's nothing they can do or say to convince me that the Diamondbacks or Phillies or Dodgers have better World Series odds than us when you take into consideration that all of those teams probably have to go through the team that they think has the highest odds to win it all.   

 

 

This is on point. I couldn't care less if they make a projection and it's wildly wrong. That's what happens all the time. The issue is when they continue to tout these projections and project the Orioles to still be worse than they are deeper and deeper into the season, in spite of their actual performance on the field/in the standings. It's akin to them saying, "Our projections are right. It's the Orioles winning ways that are wrong. You'll see (eventually)."

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dystopia Hangout Grand Counsel

dystopia

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26 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yes, because it isn't personal.

Why does that matter? FG is looking at a 100 team and saying “we don’t believe you’re anywhere close to being that good”. Doesn’t matter if it’s personal or not. It would be one thing if it could be statistically defensible but it’s not. The Orioles and their fans have every right to feel disrespected by that, and there’s 29 other teams and fan bases who would feel the same way. If you think otherwise, then you’re either lying or not a real fan. 

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NCRaven Hangout Grand Counsel

NCRaven

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Fangraphs playoff odds were updated throughout the season, including as recently as this morning.  They are based on the team and individual player performances from what I understand.  They use the same methodology for every team in baseball during the season and every team still alive in the post season.  I think that one of the reasons that they are missing on the O's this year is that our young players lack a long performance history and their system is slow to adjust to more recent performance vs. past performance.  It's also true that teams with our run differential do not historically do as well as this year's Orioles team has done.

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