My 2023 second half and full regular season report card

[Aristotelian]

Great post. I'm slightly lower on Urias's second half due to defense. He made some spectacularly terrible plays. I would go with C- for the half and C overall.

Similarly, I am slightly higher on Hays. His hitting slipped but he played solid defense and stayed healthy all year, so I would go with C+ for the half and B overall. 

[Orioles5258]

Adleys first 2 seasons mirror Johnny Benchs first 2 seasons, you should raise his grade and not lower expectations. 

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Morgan423 said:

Do they include some kind of "clutchiness" factor?  When players hugely sway expected in-game win percentage?  Like when he single handedly won that game in Seattle in August?  That could account for it if so.

So far as I know, they do not factor in clutchness.  Diving a little deeper into this, I’ve been tracking Rdrs, which is the defensive metric that feeds into rWAR, every 18 games.  Mullins was at -2 at the 72-game mark, 0 at the 90-game mark, so figure about -1 at the 81-game mark.  He finished very strong, at +7.  So that’s 8 defensive runs he picked up in the second half, which translates to about 0.8 rWAR.  So, clearly most of the 1.3 rWAR Mullins had in the second half was due to his defense as measured by Rdrs. But by UZR, Mullins was at -3.1 at 72 games, -2.7 at 90 games, so maybe -2.9 at 81 games.  UZR had him at -2.8 when the season ended.  So, they didn’t see a big defensive contribution in the second half.  I didn’t track OAA during the season, but they had him finishing the year at +6, and Fielder Runs (Statcast measure of outfield arms) was -2.   So, I think the big difference between rWAR and fWAR in evaluating Mullins’ second half was probably the defense.

[SilverRocket]

Westburg is one I would give a slightly lower grade on, maybe a C+. While his defense has been better than I expected, I was hoping for more than a .715 with the bat, especially in a part-time situation where he is presumably matched up positively. He was also the opposite of rushed and put in his full time in AAA, so I expected production to be a little closer to what he did there.

Not a disappointment, but not really meeting the hype either.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, SilverRocket said:

Westburg is one I would give a slightly lower grade on, maybe a C+. While his defense has been better than I expected, I was hoping for more than a .715 with the bat, especially in a part-time situation where he is presumably matched up positively. He was also the opposite of rushed and put in his full time in AAA, so I expected production to be a little closer to what he did there.

Not a disappointment, but not really meeting the hype either.

My expectations were probably a little lower than yours.  At least his debut was smoother than Cowser’s or Ortiz’s.  I think he’ll hit better next year with this experience under his belt.

[Frobby]

Now for the pitchers, who I have listed in order of the number of innings pitched over the full season.  I cut if off at 20 IP, and didn’t give a new grade to Keegan Akin, who never pitched in the second half, or Austin Voth, who threw only 3.2 innings in the second half.  Due to the 20 inning cutoff, I didn’t grade guys like D.L. Hall (19.1 IP), Nick Vespi (14.1), or Pablo Lopez (13.1), among others.

Kyle Gibson – First Half: 96.2 IP, 8-5, 4.66 ERA, 1.376 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 0.7 rWAR, 1.6 fWAR: B-/C+.  Second Half: 95.1 IP, 7-4, 95.1 IP, 4.81 ERA, 1.259 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 0.2 rWAR, 1.0 fWAR: B-/C+.  Overall Grade: B-/C+.   Gibson hit a rough patch in the second half, but was very strong in September when the chips were down.  He was pretty much the same pitcher in both halves, and his 192 IP were the third-highest total of his career, completely fulfilling his role of innings eater.  He also was an excellent leader in the clubhouse by all accounts.

Dean Kremer – First Half:  91.0 IP, 8-4, 5.04 ERA, 1.418 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.2 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: C+. Second Half: 81.2 IP, 5-1, 3.09 ERA, 1.132 WHIP, 7.9 K/9, 3.3 BB/9, 1.3 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR: A-.  Overall grade: B.  Kremer had a very strong second half, exceeded his previous high in innings at a healthy 172.2, and didn’t miss a start.  He had some of his best games in key situations.   His ERA+ stepped back from 121 to 100 on the year, but he gave us a good start more often than not, as his 13-5 record suggests.

Kyle Bradish -- First Half: 78.0 IP, 4-4, 3.58 ERA, 1.205 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, 1.6 rWAR, 1.4 fWAR: A-.  Second Half: 90.2 IP, 8-3, 2.18 ERA, 0.904 WHIP, 9.3 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 3.3 rWAR, 2.4 fWAR: A+.   Overall grade: A+.  Wow.   The best ERA of any qualified Orioles starter since Mike Mussina in 1992, and tied with Erik Bedard’s 2007 for best ERA+ since Mussina in 1994.  And, he just kept getting better and better as the year progressed.  He looked like a full-blown ace in the second half.

Grayson Rodriguez – First Half: 45.1 IP, 2-2, 7.35 ERA, 1.743 WHIP, 11.1 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, -1.0 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: D-.  Second Half: 76.2 IP, 5-2, 2.58 ERA, 1.096 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.9 rWAR, 2.1 fWAR: A+.  Overall grade: B.  As disappointing as Grayson’s first half was, his second half was downright inspiring.   I had high expectations for Grayson coming into the year, but his second half exceeded anything I had expected.  His overall year was good not great, but I am drooling waiting for next season. 

Tyler Wells – First Half: 92.2 IP, 6-4, 3.21 ERA, 0.885 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 2.0 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR: A-.  Second Half: 26.0 IP, 4-5, 5.19 ERA, 1.346 WHIP, 7.6 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, -0.3 rWAR, -0.3 fWAR: D.  Overall grade: B-.  After a very strong first half, Wells suffered arm fatigue in the second half and had to be sent to the minors and shifted to a relief role.  Still, he exceeded his innings from 2022 and had a better ERA.  And, he provided a few key relief innings in late September.

Cole Irvin – First Half: 26.1 IP, 1-3, 7.18 ERA, 1.671 WHIP, 9.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, -0.5 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR:F.  Second Half: 51.0 IP, 0-1, 3.00 ERA, 1.078 WHIP, 7.2 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.6 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR: B.  Overall grade: C.   Irvin did a nice job in the second half, and frankly, I thought he was underutilized.  His overall performance was a bit less than I expected due to a slow start, but he can still be an asset for this team.  I enjoyed his strike-throwing once he returned from AAA.

Yennier Cano – First Half: 40.1 IP, 1-0, 1.12 ERA, 0.843 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 1.3 BB/9, 2.3 rWAR, 1.5 fWAR: A.  Second Half: 32.1 IP, 0-4, 3.34 ERA, 1.206 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.1 rWAR, 0.2 fWAR:  B.  Overall grade: A-.  Cano came out of nowhere this year, and my overall grade reflects that.  He was nowhere near as good in the second half as the first, possibly because he’d been used so heavily in the first couple of months.  But if you told me in March that Cano would post the numbers he did from the second half, I would have been very pleased with that.  It’s only the amazing start he had that raised expectations for him.   He’s gotten more rest and has looked sharper in his last couple of outings; I hope that shows in the playoffs.

Mike Baumann – First Half: 41.1 IP, 5-0, 3.92 ERA, 1.234 WHIP, 9.8 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 0.6 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: B.  Second Half: 23.1 IP, 5-1, 3.47 ERA, 1.457 WHIP, 6.2 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.0 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR: C-.  Overall grade: B-.  Here’s a case where ERA lies.   Baumann’s ERA may have been better in the second half, but he was forever putting runners on base, and he blew 3 saves in the second half.  The fact that he was sent to the minors twice speaks volumes.  I still gave him a B- on the year because I wasn’t expecting that much from him in the first place.

Felix Bautista -- First Half: 37.2 IP, 3-1, 21 saves, 5 blown saves, 1.19 ERA, 0.982 WHIP, 18.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9, 1.8 rWAR, 1.7 fWAR: A-.  Second Half: 23.1 IP, 5-1, 12 saves, 1 blown save, 1.93 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 13.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 1.2 rWAR, 1.1 fWAR: A.  Overall grade: A.  Even though Bautista’s peripherals were slightly down in the second half, I upgraded him from A- to A because he only blew 1 save in 13 chances in the second half, compared to the first half where he blew 5.  Also, of his five second-half wins, three of them were instances where he pitched scoreless innings in both the 9^th and 10^th, stranding the ghost runner in the 10th each time.  That’s winning the hard way!   It’s a bummer that he’s hurt and I hope he makes a full and timely recovery.

Cionel Perez – First Half: 29.1 IP, 1-1, 4.60 ERA, 1.841 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 4.9 BB/9, -0.3 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR: D-.  Second Half: 24.0 IP, 3-1, 2.25 ERA, 1.208 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.0 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR: B+.  Overall grade: C+.   Cionel’s turnaround was big for the team, especially when Bautista went down.  He still had occasional hiccup games in the second half, but overall, returned to being someone who Brandon Hyde was not reluctant to call on in big situations.

Danny Coulombe – First Half: 28.2 IP, 2-1, 2.20 ERA, 1.012 WHIP, 11.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.1 rWAR, 0.9 fWAR: A.  Second Half: 23.2 IP, 3-2, 3.42 ERA, 1.183 WHIP, 8.0 K/9, 1.9 BB/9, 0.0 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR: B.  Overall grade: A-.   Coulombe wasn’t quite as good in the second half, and missed a couple of weeks with an injury.  But overall, he was very reliable all year.  You could count on him to throw strikes and make the other team beat him, rather than walking guys and getting into bad counts and beating himself.  He was one heck of a pickup at the end of spring training.

Bryan Baker -- First Half:  32.1 IP, 3-2, 4.18 ERA, 1.299 WHIP, 11.7 K/9, 5.3 BB/9, 0.1 rWAR, 0.5 fWAR: C.  Second Half 12.1 IP, 1-1, 2.13 ERA, 1.184 WHIP, 6.4 K/9, 3.6 BB/9, 0.4 rWAR, -0.1 fWAR: C.  Overall grade: C.  Another case where ERA lies.  Baker allowed 10 of 12 inherited runners to score in the second half, and that was why he got demoted to AAA.   He took a significant step back from 2022.

Jack Flaherty – Second Half: 34.2 IP, 1-3, 6.75 ERA, 1.673 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, -0.6 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: F.  I don’t know if it was bad karma, bad luck, or bad pitching, but Flaherty gave us one good start and was terrible after that.  He essentially warmed the bench over the final two weeks of the season, with a couple of appearances in low leverage situations.   We did not get what we expected in Flaherty, though his K and BB numbers were OK. 

Shintaro Fujinami – Second Half: 29.2 IP, 2-0, 4.85 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 9.7 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, -0.1 rWAR, 0.1 fWAR: D.   I didn’t know what to expect when we got Fuji.   His ERA had been awful with Oakland, but pretty decent in the previous 6 weeks or so.  From one game to the next, you never knew what you were getting with Fuji, and he seemed to shrink in high-leverage situations.  I could see this guy putting it together and becoming a dominant reliever, but he simply was not someone who could be relied upon in a tight pennant race this year.

John Means – Second Half: 23.2 IP, 1-2, 2.66 ERA, 0.718 WHIP, 3.8 K/9, 1.5 BB/9: A.  Means’ debut was pushed back about 6 weeks with a back injury.   When we finally recalled him, I really didn’t know what to expect.  What we got was more or less vintage 2019-21 John Means, throwing strikes, inducing soft fly balls, and getting through innings at lightning speed.  The 7 inning one-hitter he pitched in Cleveland when our bullpen was running on fumes was a huge performance.  His K rate has been oddly low, but I still couldn’t be much happier with his performance.

Jacob Webb – Second Half: 22.0 IP, 0-0, 3.27 ERA, 1.182 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, 4.1 BB/9, 0.4 rWAR, 0.4 fWAR: B+.  We picked up Webb on the waiver wire, and in his first 9 appearances, he didn’t allow a run.   From that point on, he was quite human, pitching to an ERA of 5.40 the rest of the way and walking 8 hitters in 13.1 innings.  Still, he added depth when we really needed some.   Gotta be happy with that kind of production from a waiver wire guy who every other team passed on.

One final point: the staff had a 3.50 ERA in the second half, compared to 4.33 in the first half.  Bradish, Rodriguez, Kremer, Irvin and Perez all were much better in the second half than the first (which is saying a lot in Bradish's case), and Means came back and was excellent in September as well.   Pitching was a big part of what got the Orioles to 101 wins.

Edited October 4, 2023 by Frobby

[Aristotelian]

Great summary and I agree with all the grades, especially the A+ for Bradish. Refresh my memory, have you ever given out a full season A+?

[Too Tall]

Posters Season Grade - Frobby A+++++++ - for what he contributes to this site!!!!!!!!!! Thank You.

[Osornot]

Always look forward to these @Frobby THANKS!

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Great summary and I agree with all the grades, especially the A+ for Bradish. Refresh my memory, have you ever given out a full season A+?

To be honest, I'm not sure.  I know I didn't give Mullins one in 2021 or Rutschman one last year, though it was tempting in both cases.  If Bradish's two halves had been reversed, I might not have given him one, either.  But coming through so big when the chips were down put him over the top.

[ledzepp8]

19 hours ago, dystopia said:

Frazier’s grade was generous. He underperformed overall this year. 
 

I know you said you’ll do pitching in another post but let’s face it, Bradish and G-Rod get A+’s for the 2nd half easy. Kremer a B+, and Gibson a C. Flaherty and his 7 ERA gets an F. 

Really? He did exactly what he was brought in to do. He had a career high in homeruns and RBIs. He's averaged 1.7 bWAR for his career and how about that, he had 1.7 bWAR this year. I get that people are still clutching their pearls about his signing but put that aside and judge him for how he performed. 

[Aristotelian]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

To be honest, I'm not sure.  I know I didn't give Mullins one in 2021 or Rutschman one last year, though it was tempting in both cases.  If Bradish's two halves had been reversed, I might not have given him one, either.  But coming through so big when the chips were down put him over the top.

Yeah, Mullins may have been hurt by a weaker second half after the red hot first half. I don't remember how long you've been doing these but by WAR Davis '13 and Manny '15/16 might have been A+ level. 

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Thanks for a great detailed report @Frobby.

I'm not sure I understand how the stats for Rutschman and McCann warrant identical B- grades. Sure... Adley missed high expectations and McCann was better than last year's backups, but for me their "test scores" would not each receive the same grade. 

I sort of do a mix between a pure raw score and a pure curve based on expectations.   In other words, if a guy like Adley meets but doesn’t exceeed my expectations, he’s probably getting a B, maybe a B+.   If a guy like McCann meets but doesn’t exceed my expectations, he’s probably getting a C+.  So here, a B- for Adley means I was slightly disappointed in his season.  B- for McCann means he very modestly exceeded my expectations.  

On the one hand, my grade for Adley feels stingy.  He deservedly made the all star team, and I won’t be surprised if he gets some down-ballot MVP votes.  On the other hand, there’s no denying that he set expectations by being worth 5.4 rWAR, 5.3 fWAR in 3/4 of a season last year, and was “only” worth 4.3 rWAR, 5.0 fWAR this season.  And if you look at last season, after his initial adjustment period where he had a .513 OPS in his first 20 games, he had an .872 OPS the rest of the year.  So, that’s about what I thought we’d see in 2023.   

In short, my expectations for Adley were extraordinarily high, and since I’m grading vs. my expectations, he got downgraded a bit.  Next year I’ll probably temper my expectations a bit going in, based on the current baseline.  But I’ll still be greedily hoping for more!

 

Edited October 4, 2023 by Frobby

[Hallas]

5 hours ago, SilverRocket said:

Westburg is one I would give a slightly lower grade on, maybe a C+. While his defense has been better than I expected, I was hoping for more than a .715 with the bat, especially in a part-time situation where he is presumably matched up positively. He was also the opposite of rushed and put in his full time in AAA, so I expected production to be a little closer to what he did there.

Not a disappointment, but not really meeting the hype either.

This is kind of crazy to me.  He was like, the 5th ranked prospect in the system, and was a tail-end top-100 overall guy, and he played like an above average regular from the second he got called up.  I'm not sure how you can reasonably expect more out of him.

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

This is kind of crazy to me.  He was like, the 5th ranked prospect in the system, and was a tail-end top-100 overall guy, and he played like an above average regular from the second he got called up.  I'm not sure how you can reasonably expect more out of him.

Pretty clearly everyone in the O's top 10 should be a rookie of the year contender.