Dylan Cease

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Then I dont want him. I'm not giving a top 100 guy plus for a 4 ERA pitcher. I'd rather just sign Sonny Gray for 2 years

First of all, it’s fine to have that opinion.  I’d rather sign Gray than trade talented players for Cease.  But if we aren’t willing to pony up what it costs to sign a Gray-level pitcher, then what?

I wouldn’t get too caught up in the “top 100” thing.  Cease was a consensus top 40 prospect back in the day, and his actual outcome so far is a very good outcome for a prospect of that ilk.  These prospects we have (several of whom are ranked well below where Cease was) aren’t all going to turn out to be studs.  

I think you are too dismissive of Cease.  He’s had an ERA+ of 110 or better in 3 of 5 seasons, and a career mark of 113.  He’s also played on a team with a really crappy defense (probably the very worst in baseball over the last 3 years).   Put him on a good defensive team with a good coaching staff and he probably can outperform his career averages, even if he doesn’t approach his 2022 figures ever again.  
 

[Sports Guy]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Then I dont want him. I'm not giving a top 100 guy plus for a 4 ERA pitcher. I'd rather just sign Sonny Gray for 2 years

Gray will get 3-4 years.

I would actually rather have Cease in a trade than Gray for money and I’m not even a big Cease guy.

But I am a believer in stuff in the playoffs and I’m not sure how much I would trust Gray in October.

Don’t get me wrong, I would sign him. I would be very happy we got him but I wouldn’t feel he makes us much better in October. Cease could make me feel that way but obviously his floor is lower.

Im not moving Holliday, Mayo or Basallo for him and I don’t think any other team is moving a top 25 guy either.

I think I think some kind of combo of Cowser, Kjerstad, Norby, Ortiz and Westburg could get it done.  Just a matter if that’s what you would want to do. 
 

I would be hesitant to put Cowser or Kjerstad on the table for him…again unless Robert is also involved.

 

[Sports Guy]

The thing about Cease is that his organization is absolute train wreck. Maybe the biggest embarrassment in the league right now. 
 

Get him out of that situation and into a real organization that knows how to develop guys and maybe his results get better. That would be my biggest hope and why acquiring him is intriguing to me.

[OriolesMagic83]

12 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Thanks.  As for Westburg, I do like him, but I wouldn’t center a Cease trade around him.  Don’t see an elite carrying tool with him like Mayo’s power.  If I couldn’t get a stronger centerpiece from the Orioles, I’d look elsewhere.  Prospects just bust too frequently and Westberg as the headliner makes worry there is a real we end up empty-handed.

Do you think a trade package headlined by Kjerstad and Ortiz would be enough?  3rd piece would be a player outside O's top 10 like Povich or Beavers.  It's always good to get another team's fan's perspective.  I think O's fans like most team's fans overvalue their own prospects and players and undervalue those of other teams.

[Roll Tide]

43 minutes ago, Frobby said:

First of all, it’s fine to have that opinion.  I’d rather sign Gray than trade talented players for Cease.  But if we aren’t willing to pony up what it costs to sign a Gray-level pitcher, then what?

I wouldn’t get too caught up in the “top 100” thing.  Cease was a consensus top 40 prospect back in the day, and his actual outcome so far is a very good outcome for a prospect of that ilk.  These prospects we have (several of whom are ranked well below where Cease was) aren’t all going to turn out to be studs.  

I think you are too dismissive of Cease.  He’s had an ERA+ of 110 or better in 3 of 5 seasons, and a career mark of 113.  He’s also played on a team with a really crappy defense (probably the very worst in baseball over the last 3 years).   Put him on a good defensive team with a good coaching staff and he probably can outperform his career averages, even if he doesn’t approach his 2022 figures ever again.  
 

He's been a just under 4 ERA 0r worse in 4 of 5 seasons. What concerns me is the BB/9 of 4 and the 1.4 WHIP. He clearly shot his load in 2022. I'm okay with trying to get him, just not buying the 2.20 ERA guy that was considerably worse in 2023.

[Roll Tide]

42 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Gray will get 3-4 years.

I would actually rather have Cease in a trade than Gray for money and I’m not even a big Cease guy.

But I am a believer in stuff in the playoffs and I’m not sure how much I would trust Gray in October.

Don’t get me wrong, I would sign him. I would be very happy we got him but I wouldn’t feel he makes us much better in October. Cease could make me feel that way but obviously his floor is lower.

Im not moving Holliday, Mayo or Basallo for him and I don’t think any other team is moving a top 25 guy either.

I think I think some kind of combo of Cowser, Kjerstad, Norby, Ortiz and Westburg could get it done.  Just a matter if that’s what you would want to do. 
 

I would be hesitant to put Cowser or Kjerstad on the table for him…again unless Robert is also involved.

 

I read something that said Gray might want a shorter deal. Hinting that he may only want to pitch a couple more seasons. I'm not giving him 4 years. I'd consider 3 or 2 with a mutual option if he decides he still wants to pitch.

[Frobby]

13 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

He's been a just under 4 ERA 0r worse in 4 of 5 seasons. What concerns me is the BB/9 of 4 and the 1.4 WHIP. He clearly shot his load in 2022. I'm okay with trying to get him, just not buying the 2.20 ERA guy that was considerably worse in 2023.

I don’t think we should be paying for the 2022 version.  But the 2020-21 version, or career average version, is a good pitcher who I’d be happy to have on our staff.  

Edited November 6, 2023 by Frobby

[Roll Tide]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think we should be paying for the 2022 version.  But the 2020-21 version, or career average version, is a good pitcher who I’d be happy to have on our staff.  

I'd throw out his rookie year and sadly 2022 as its anomaly. If you do that he's a 4.15-4.35 ERA 160 ish innings pitcher that walks too many. I know the White Sox will want to extract 2022 value and who can blame them. As a fan of the team buying I want to pay for the pitcher he was in 2023. My guess is that he will make around 10 million in arb this year. So he has some surplus value. But, I think we can do better.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I'd throw out his rookie year and sadly 2022 as its anomaly. If you do that he's a 4.15-4.35 ERA 160 ish innings pitcher that walks too many. I know the White Sox will want to extract 2022 value and who can blame them. As a fan of the team buying I want to pay for the pitcher he was in 2023. My guess is that he will make around 10 million in arb this year. So he has some surplus value. But, I think we can do better.

177 innings with a 3.72 FIP last year.   You take his lowest innings total of the last 3 years (165 in 2021) and use that.  Why isn’t he a 180ish innings pitcher?   You don’t want him.  Fine.  Let’s be accurate.

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

177 innings with a 3.72 FIP last year.   You take his lowest innings total of the last 3 years (165 in 2021) and use that.  Why isn’t he a 180ish innings pitcher?   You don’t want him.  Fine.  Let’s be accurate.

Nitpick Much? Guess I couldve said 160+ or 160-180. Don't care about FIP...... I'd take him but I'm not overpaying.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Nitpick Much? Guess I couldve said 160+ or 160-180. Don't care about FIP...... I'd take him but I'm not overpaying.

165, 184, 177.   That’s the last 3 years.  It’s curious that you said 160ish.   Love the bold face.   

[Billy F-Face3]

Dylan Cease? 

 

[Roll Tide]

11 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

165, 184, 177.   That’s the last 3 years.  It’s curious that you said 160ish.   Love the bold face.   

As I admitted, I shouldve used the + or _____ to _______. My bad

[E-D-D-I-E]

Wow, some of these trade proposals.... As usual and I do it too, we over-value our prospects. There is no world where Cowser would get us a #3 starter, let alone, a young one with a TON of upside. Pitching is at the utmost premium, especially starters. Prospects are prospects until they aren't. Cowser didn't exactly do himself or us any favors with his first look. He certainly hasn't shown that he can be a good big leaguer. The list of AAAA's is a mile long.

[Roll Tide]

31 minutes ago, E-D-D-I-E said:

Wow, some of these trade proposals.... As usual and I do it too, we over-value our prospects. There is no world where Cowser would get us a #3 starter, let alone, a young one with a TON of upside. Pitching is at the utmost premium, especially starters. Prospects are prospects until they aren't. Cowser didn't exactly do himself or us any favors with his first look. He certainly hasn't shown that he can be a good big leaguer. The list of AAAA's is a mile long.

Did anyone suggest a 1 for 1? I think I said that the trade simulator says Mayo for Cease would be an equal trade.