Cease vs everyone else

[forphase1]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Pretty good article about Cease.  Keep an open mind and read it.

https://www.southsidesox.com/2023/10/23/23925118/what-went-wrong-dylan-cease-chicago-white-sox-ace-to-mere-mortal-ethan-katz

Good article that illustrates both the hopeful thoughts of @Chicago White Soxthat he can fix what was broken last year,  while fully explaining why some value him around a #3 based on last years numbers.   In the end its going to come down to whether or not our front office thinks they can fix the issues noted in this article.   If so,  then perhaps that monster package is possible.   Otherwise I don't expect the Os to offer the kind of haul some are wanting. 

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Don’t care about fantasy stats and excuse making he had a 4.58 ERA, 1.41 WHIP that was fueled by 4.0 BB per 9. 

Lol…not sure how xERA is a “fantasy stat” other maybe it makes the game a little too complex for your liking?  The reality is the defense behind Cease put up -8 OAA last year while the one behind Bradish put +3.  If you don’t honestly think that difference in defense would have an impact on their ERAs then I don’t what else to tell you.  It’s hard to have a rational discussion with people who refuse to use critical thinking when assessing performance and value.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I agree with you on this ….Except I’m not giving up Kjerstad and I’d prefer to give them a choice of Cowser, Ortiz, or Norby as piece 1. I’d give up Westburg and replace him with Ortiz but I think you lessen his value playing him at 2B. Unless you move Gunnar back to 3B and play Norby at SS. 

Imagine proposing Connor Norby as the headliner for Dylan Cease . Oh you are not going to have a fun off-season when you see what Norby actually gets you in a trade.

[dystopia]

9 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol…not sure how xERA is a “fantasy stat” other maybe it makes the game a little too complex for your liking?  The reality is the defense behind Cease put up -8 OAA last year while the one behind Bradish put +3.  If you don’t honestly think that difference in defense would have an impact on their ERAs then I don’t what else to tell you.  It’s hard to have a rational discussion with people who refuse to use critical thinking when assessing performance and value.

It’s not based on actual results. 
 

Chicago’s bad defense is why we’ve had a million threads discussing trading for him. Nobody would be willing to give up Cowser for two years of a 4.50 ERA pitcher. The expectation is that he would have a year more like 2021 than 2022 or 2023. 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol…not sure how xERA is a “fantasy stat” other maybe it makes the game a little too complex for your liking?  The reality is the defense behind Cease put up -8 OAA last year while the one behind Bradish put +3.  If you don’t honestly think that difference in defense would have an impact on their ERAs then I don’t what else to tell you.  It’s hard to have a rational discussion with people who refuse to use critical thinking when assessing performance and value.

I have to admit, after taking in the points you’ve made and reading that article I’d be willing to do Cowser/Kjerstad + Ortiz

[ChosenOne21]

So it looks like if Cease had the same level of defense behind him that Kyle Bradish did, his ERA last year would have been 4.02.

I think that's how Cease should be valued. He's two years of fairly cheap 180 IP/4.00 ERA. I'd be willing to value him a little higher than that because there's some chance he recaptures his Cy Young form.

Those kind of pitchers don't grow on trees. Connor Norby as a headliner doesn't get you there. You probably need to start talks with Cowser or Kjerstad.

[Brian88]

39 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Lol…not sure how xERA is a “fantasy stat” other maybe it makes the game a little too complex for your liking?  The reality is the defense behind Cease put up -8 OAA last year while the one behind Bradish put +3.  If you don’t honestly think that difference in defense would have an impact on their ERAs then I don’t what else to tell you.  It’s hard to have a rational discussion with people who refuse to use critical thinking when assessing performance and value.

Don’t feel bad, this is how he always is. 

[Frobby]

There’s a difference between what I’m hoping to do and what Im willing to do.  If pushed by competition from other teams, I’m willing to trade Cowser, Ortiz and maybe a minor third piece to get Cease.  I’m certainly hoping that other teams’ offers will be significantly weaker and that the O’s will be able to acquire Cease without giving up a lead two pieces as strong as Cowser and Ortiz.  We’ll just have to see how it all plays out.  Cease is not the only option for the Orioles and they may go a completely different direction.  The Orioles are not the only trade partner option for the White Sox in dealing Cease.   But the matchup does make some sense.  

[Jim'sKid26]

42 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

  It’s hard to have a rational discussion with people who refuse to use critical thinking when assessing performance and value.

Ah, the message board paradox. Who is crazier? The one who refuses to acknowledge reality or the one who keeps pointing out what is real and expecting the one who refuses to acknowledge it to do so?

[Chicago White Sox]

24 minutes ago, dystopia said:

It’s not based on actual results. 
 

Chicago’s bad defense is why we’ve had a million threads discussing trading for him. Nobody would be willing to give up Cowser for two years of a 4.50 ERA pitcher. The expectation is that he would have a year more like 2021 than 2022 or 2023. 

It’s based on a pitcher’s actual quality of contact.  It may not be perfect, but calling it a “fantasy” stat seems to suggest the poster’s unwillingness to think critically when assessing a pitcher’s performance.  

I think 95% of posters here are willing to use any and all data points to help assess performance & value.  This is really just an issue I’m having with one dude only wants to use ERA as the end-all-be-all because “results are all that matter” or whatever he just seemed to imply.

[Chicago White Sox]

33 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I have to admit, after taking in the points you’ve made and reading that article I’d be willing to do Cowser/Kjerstad + Ortiz

That article does a much better job of summarizing the points I’ve been trying to make.  A shitty defense obviously had a major impact and doesn’t help a guy who both strikes out and walks a lot of guys.  Additionally, there is reason to believe that a lot of his problems were mechanical and can be fixed.  Doesn’t mean he’ll revert to 2022 form, but I truly believe someone is going to get two cheap years of TOR starter production at a fairly reasonable price given what those normally cost.

[Chicago White Sox]

6 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Ah, the message board paradox. Who is crazier? The one who refuses to acknowledge reality or the one who keeps pointing out what is real and expecting the one who refuses to acknowledge it to do so?

Lol…very true.

[RZNJ]

Some funny stuff as I search around.  I don’t have a subscription to the Athletic but for some reason I’m able to pull content up on my phone.

In a mailbag a Red’s fan asks about Cease and Bowden suggests a trade centered around Jonathan India and Ty Floyd (2023 overall 38th pick).  Sounds super light to me.  India has been mediocre for 2 years after a great rookie year and Floyd isn’t listed in BA top ten for the Reds.  Bowden really is a clown.  Lol

[Frobby]

34 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

That article does a much better job of summarizing the points I’ve been trying to make.  A shitty defense obviously had a major impact and doesn’t help a guy who both strikes out and walks a lot of guys.  Additionally, there is reason to believe that a lot of his problems were mechanical and can be fixed.  Doesn’t mean he’ll revert to 2022 form, but I truly believe someone is going to get two cheap years of TOR starter production at a fairly reasonable price given what those normally cost.

As I see it, the advanced metrics show the White Sox defense as between 14 and 64 runs below average, out of 841 runs allowed.  If you assume the high end, about 7.6% of their runs allowed were due to having a below average defense.  Apply that to Cease and maybe his 4.58 ERA should have been more like 4.23.   That squares pretty closely with his Statcast xERA of 4.13.  

Bottom line, it just wasn’t a great year for the guy.  I’d expect him to bounce back and do better than 4.13 ERA as an Oriole.  There’s risk that he wouldn’t, and questions as to how much better he’d do if he bounced back.  You can’t know everything, it’s baseball.  
 

[Sports Guy]

I don’t get this idea of you can only trade one of Kjerstad/Cowser/Ortiz.

Can we please stop acting like Ortiz is on the same level as those 2 because he’s not.

I like Ortiz. I would be happy with him as the everyday second baseman. I think he can be a 3-4 WAR player.

But the bottom line is we do have questions about how much of his power will translate to the majors and he’s “old”.  This isn’t to say he’s not a good prospect or that he can’t be a productive MLer but he is CLEARLY behind the 2 OFers and he is clearly a solid second piece in a deal like this.

People need to start getting behind the idea the Os have to trade players in areas that they have a ton of depth. You can’t just keep hoping to win AAA titles. Your players have to win games for you in the majors and they can do that in multiple ways, one of which is being part of a trade.

On top of that, if you are going to “overpay” and have him as your second piece in a trade, you should do it for a pitcher who can be an impact guy.

True impact starters don’t throw on trees. I know some on here don’t believe Cease is that and in some ways, they are correct. The problem with the thinking from some is that they refuse to look at advance stats that tell you more of the story and they refuse to understand just what a dumpster fire Cease is coming from.

Think about to a guy like Arrieta. The Os couldn’t develop him because of how awful the org was. That’s the WS right now.

If I asked you 8 years ago, would you be surprise if pitcher X went to another team and thrived, everyone here would have say no. We all knew that the Os couldn’t do anything.

Well that’s the WS now. A clueless org that can’t do anything correctly. So, if the Os are going after him and they are willing to trade for him, you have to believe they see many of the things we are talking about.