Cease vs everyone else

[Tony-OH]

Besides his name and his 2022 season, I'm not sure of the hype surrounding Cease or why the Orioles should bid too high on him.

When I look at the statcast info, I see a guy who's velocity has fallen off and most of his value is on his slider being good that day. Lefties hit him pretty well because he really doesn't have a changeup and if he's not spotting his slider low and in on them he can get hit hard by them. they put up a .797 OPS against him last year.

He's a got decent amount of wear on him and his struggles in July ad August last year are a bit of a concern. 

Now saying that, he tends to pitch to the scoreboard a bit so can bear down when his team is not scoring much and that's a good quality to have in the playoffs. Now would I rather have him or Kremer in the rotation, I'm taking him, but if I have to give up Kjerstad or Cowser for him, I'm not giving a ton more.

If the White Sox want Kjerstad, then perhaps you make that deal but maybe you give them a Trace Bright to go along with him. Same with Cowser. If they want Cowser, then maybe I'd consider giving up a Beavers or they want a pitcher, feel free to have them take a pick from Armbruester, Peek, Pinto, and maybe Bright (who is the best prospect of all of them). If they want a 3rd guy then you trade a Wagner, Haskin, or Bencosme type.

 

[E-D-D-I-E]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

To me, you either get a deal done or you don’t.  I couldn’t care less about coming close, or “being active.”

Saying that, Elias strikes me as a guy who goes to an auction with a firm idea of what he’s willing to bid for the items he wants, and if someone outbids him, he’s not going to get auction fever and bid more than he’d planned in advance.  So he’s probably always going to miss out on most of his targets, but that trait may still serve him well in the long run. 

However, with a finite number of players, available, you may have to exceed that bid, to get the player or players needed to win. 

[RVAOsFan]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Norby, Stowers, Povich, Kremer and Sosa/Urias  for Cease and Kopech. 
 

You doing that?  Are they? 

I don't like the idea of including Kremer in a deal for Cease.  I would rather give up more in prospect depth.  If they really want a starter back then include Irvin.

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I don't like the idea of including Kremer in a deal for Cease. 

Why?  And again, getting Kopech too who has shown he can be a real asset out of the pen.

[RVAOsFan]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Why?  And again, getting Kopech too who has shown he can be a real asset out of the pen.

I just think we are a lot deeper with position players.  Kremer could be a valuable SP to keep around next year especially if we run into any injuries.

[Ripken]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Norby, Stowers, Povich, Kremer and Sosa/Urias  for Cease and Kopech. 
 

You doing that?  Are they? 

They aren't.  I'm not either only because I don't like Kopech so I'd rather not give up two potential rotation pieces in the deal.  I'm fine with Norby and Stowers, of course, but I doubt Chicago would be.

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, RVAOsFan said:

I just think we are a lot deeper with position players.  Kremer could be a valuable SP to keep around next year especially if we run into any injuries.

If we trade Kremer, I think that means we are adding 2 SPs..which is my preference.

[RZNJ]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If we trade Kremer, I think that means we are adding 2 SPs..which is my preference.

Sure, but it’s probably not realistic that they trade a cheap starter for Cease and then go out and get a more expensive starter to replace Kremer.  Also, the White Sox want a SS/2B and we know Norby isn’t a SS and maybe not a 2B.  Stowers is redundant to them because Oscar Colas is a young LH RF.   He was rated higher than Stowers.   A deal has to make sense.  This one doesn’t.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, RZNJ said:

Sure, but it’s probably not realistic that they trade a cheap starter for Cease and then go out and get a more expensive starter to replace Kremer.  Also, the White Sox want a SS/2B and we know Norby isn’t a SS and maybe not a 2B.  Stowers is redundant to them because Oscar Colas is a young LH RF.   He was rated higher than Stowers.   A deal has to make sense.  This one doesn’t.

I’m not debating your general point about this trade proposal, but I’m not sure Colas is actually as good as Stowers, regardless of how he was rated.   

[RZNJ]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not debating your general point about this trade proposal, but I’m not sure Colas is actually as good as Stowers, regardless of how he was rated.   

I don’t know if Colas is better or worse than Stowers.  Colas is 25, profiles very similar to Stowers, was BA #89 going into last year, and had a pretty brutal first 250 ML ABs.   I don’t see the inclination for the WS wanting to have Stowers included in any deal.

[Roll Tide]

8 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Bowden thinks it will take 2 top 10 prospects and another in the 15-20 range to get him.

Fine if it’s a 3-5, 5-10, and 15-20. But I’d still try the quantity approach that heads with Cowser

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I don’t know if Colas is better or worse than Stowers.  Colas is 25, profiles very similar to Stowers, was BA #89 going into last year, and had a pretty brutal first 250 ML ABs.   I don’t see the inclination for the WS wanting to have Stowers included in any deal.

Like I said, I’m not debating your general point about the proposed trade.  

[Sports Guy]

I’m guessing the WS are going to try and get the best players they can, regardless of position. They need everything and may move other players like Jimenez too.

 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m guessing the WS are going to try and get the best players they can, regardless of position. They need everything and may move other players like Jimenez too.

 

Word is they want players who are also good defensively unlike most of their current team.  Norby and Stowers don’t fit that.  Not saying every acquisition has to be GG but I’d expect one of the main pieces.  Hence Joey Ortiz.

[Chicago White Sox]

12 hours ago, Frobby said:

Trading is an auction just like free agency is.  We won’t get Cease (or whoever) unless we offer more value than all the other teams who want to trade for him.  I personally don’t believe we will get him for a package that doesn’t include either Kjerstad or Cowser unless we’re packaging 3-4 top 10 guys lower on our list. 

The Sox will want one of Cowser, Kjerstad, or Mayo as a headliner.  This will be the first major trade for Chris Getz (sorry to Aaron Bummer) and he will want a legit centerpiece that he has a high degree of confidence will not only work out but also be impactful.  The bust rate of 45 FV guys is simply too high and most of them will also lack an impact ceiling.  I could see a path in which he goes for quantity instead of a better second piece like say Ortiz (I personally wouldn’t), but he’s going to want a legit 55+ / 55 FV to headline any deal whether within the Orioles or not.