Cease vs everyone else

[RZNJ]

6 hours ago, Chicago White Sox said:

I’d take Colas over Stowers.  He’s a bit of a head case, but is super athletic and still somewhat raw. I’m just not a fan of guys who have massive K rates like Stowers.  Bust potential seems way too high even if the power is exciting.

I am not arguing your main point and I don’t have confidence in Stowers but he cut his strikeouts down to 26.8% in AAA in 2023.   Colas was at 22%.  I’m not sure 26.8% qualifies as massive these days.

[Chicago White Sox]

4 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

So you think he’s going to return 2 top 100 prospects for 2 years of control. Outside of his one awesome season he’s been good but not great. The Sox could certainly ask for the moon and perhaps there is a GM dumb enough to pay it. I suspect the deal lands somewhere in the middle. 
 

Ive theorized a more quantity type deal headed by Cowser/Westburg.  If that happens perhaps you also get a guy roars around 100 or just outside. 
 

Maybe something like Cowser, Ortiz/Norby, Beavers, & Baumann.

 

I agree with the prior post about Kremer. He had a low 3 ERA last year and if not for a dreadful start would’ve been in that ball park again. He gave up 22 runs in 39 innings in April.  
 

 

Two top 100 prospects is obviously fairly general since a 60 FV guy worth way more than a 50 FV guy, but yes I expect Cease to deliver that.   Again, we’re talking about a guy who is 8th fWAR and I believe 4th in Stuff+ over the past three years.  Two top 100 prospects (with one being higher rated) is more or less the going price for a pitcher like this with two years of cheap control.  I can’t even imagine how much Cease would cost in this market.  Teams are simply desperate for quality SP and very few arms have the stuff that Cease possesses.

Regardless, if you were offering Cowser, Ortiz, Beavers, & Buamann that might be a deal we’d actually do.  And that meets the two top 100 prospect criteria.  But there is a big difference to me between Ortiz and Norby, with the latter possessing a profile we are trying to move away from.

[RZNJ]

2 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

Two top 100 prospects is obviously fairly general since a 60 FV guy worth way more than a 50 FV guy, but yes I expect Cease to deliver that.   Again, we’re talking about a guy who is 8th fWAR and I believe 4th in Stuff+ over the past three years.  Two top 100 prospects (with one being higher rated) is more or less the going price for a pitcher like this with two years of cheap control.  I can’t even imagine how much Cease would cost in this market.  Teams are simply desperate for quality SP and very few arms have the stuff that Cease possesses.

Regardless, if you were offering Cowser, Ortiz, Beavers, & Buamann that might be a deal we’d actually do.  And that meets the two top 100 prospect criteria.  But there is a big difference to me between Ortiz and Norby, with the latter possessing a profile we are trying to move away from.

Ortiz and Cowser is possible.  I don’t think you’re getting Beavers or another prospect close to our top ten if you get those two.   As I said, that might be a fair deal (Ortiz and Cowser) but I don’t think Elias does it which means either the WS get a better offer elsewhere, hold onto Cease, or settle for less.

[Chicago White Sox]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So a few things here…first off, that trade idea was born more out of the idea of what Bowden was saying..IE 2 top 10 guys and another guy outside the top 10.

Povich was a top 100 guy on McDaniels list and Norby was a top 100 guy on multiple lists at different times in 2023. Both of those guys are easily top 10 guys in most organizations and maybe even top 5 in some.

Stowers is a ML ready OFer with big power and exit velo numbers. He has become the forgotten man here in Baltimore but he has everyday OFer, 30+ homer upside. I wouldn’t expect the OBP to go much beyond 325 because I would expect a lower average but he will take a walk.  If the Os move on from a guy like Cowser this offseason, I am More than fine to give the chance to Stowers and see what he can do over 400+ at bats this year.

I would like to get Kopech back in this deal for our pen. His value isn’t that much at this point but to expand the deal, I put Kremer in it because, admittingly, there isn’t that top 100(right now) guy in the deal and in these larger deals, you almost always see a MLer going back. Sometimes it’s just a reliever or maybe a UTI type guy or someone like Lopez, where you want him to start. Since you got him, I don’t think Mateo or Urias make a lot of sense as that guy, so I went with the more productive guy in Kremer to make up for the lack of a top 100 guy. Kremer fits right into your rotation, he’s cheap and has a lot of team control. He’s not as good as his numbers in 2023 suggest but he’s a solid 4th starter making no money who can eat innings. That’s valuable.

It’s also predicated on the idea that they took a quantity deal for Bummer. Obviously Bummer isn’t Cease but that doesn’t mean there isn’t an organizational thought about taking back a lot of players and seeing what you can do. The Os did that with Bundy and Jorge Lopez. In none of those deals did you get a stud prospect but you had guys with upside and, of course, Bradish hit, Povich has become a real prospect and Cano was good this year.

Now, going with the idea that they want better defense and better athletes…that’s fine. If those exact guys don’t work because you are missing that, I get it. So, you take out Norby and Stowers and you add in a guy like Ortiz. 
 

I guess my larger point in all of this is simply, what are the Sox looking for and are you actually going to get a top 35 guy for Cease? I am very skeptical of that.  Will you even get a top 50 guy?  Again, Im skeptical.

Ortiz is more of a top 75 type guy. I could see that. I could see a guy like Beavers(or Povich), who has top 100 upside this year. Is Ortiz, Beavers/Povich and a guy like Max Wagner enough for Cease?  I’m guessing most WS fans would want to say no to that but are you really going to do better than a top 75 guy, a borderline top 100 guy and another player with some upside?  Again, I’m skeptical.

As I have said, if we had to I would deal Cowser, a top 35 guy, for Cease but again, I’m skeptical that a player of that level will be needed to get dealt to get Cease.

 

We just got a 50 FV prospect typically ranked in the 60’s for two months of Lucas Giolito.  The SP market is just as insane, if not more insane than it was a few months ago.  I mean, Lance Lynn just got $10M after his disaster of a season.  Reynaldo Lopez got $30M over three years, partly because the Braves think they might be able leverage him as a SP.  To think two cheap years of Dylan Cease, who possesses some of the best stuff in all of baseball and is only one removed from a AL Cy Young runner-up season will command the same return as Giolito is very crazy to me.  Let me ask you this, what kind of contract would you expect Cease to get in this market if he were a free agent?

I don’t mean this to be disrespectful because this board is filled with many smart posters and everyone has been very welcoming to an outsider, but I don’t think some are grasping how expensive good SP will be this off-season and guys that can potentially provide real impact will be extremely expensive.  You guys may not have faith that getting Cease out of the worst organization in baseball will lead to a return to form, but I can guarantee that modern front offices are chomping at the bit to get their hands on him.  An unnamed Astros source last trade deadline called him their “dream acquisition”.  It’s 100% fine if you guys value your prospects over Cease, but there will be a GM who will prioritizing winning in the majors over winning in AAA.

[RZNJ]

4 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We just got a 50 FV prospect typically ranked in the 60’s for two months of Lucas Giolito.  The SP market is just as insane, if not more insane than it was a few months ago.  I mean, Lance Lynn just got $10M after his disaster of a season.  Reynaldo Lopez got $30M over three years, partly because the Braves think they might be able leverage him as a SP.  To think two cheap years of Dylan Cease, who possesses some of the best stuff in all of baseball and is only one removed from a AL Cy Young runner-up season will command the same return as Giolito is very crazy to me.  Let me ask you this, what kind of contract would you expect Cease to get in this market if he were a free agent?

I don’t mean this to be disrespectful because this board is filled with many smart posters and everyone has been very welcoming to an outsider, but I don’t think some are grasping how expensive good SP will be this off-season and guys that can potentially provide real impact will be extremely expensive.  You guys may not have faith that getting Cease out of the worst organization in baseball will lead to a return to form, but I can guarantee that modern front offices are chomping at the bit to get their hands on him.  An unnamed Astros source last trade deadline called him their “dream acquisition”.  It’s 100% fine if you guys value your prospects over Cease, but there will be a GM who will prioritizing winning in the majors over winning in AAA.

We’re doing pretty good for having a GM who prioritizes winning in AAA over the majors.  LOL

 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Chicago White Sox said:

We just got a 50 FV prospect typically ranked in the 60’s for two months of Lucas Giolito.  The SP market is just as insane, if not more insane than it was a few months ago.  I mean, Lance Lynn just got $10M after his disaster of a season.  Reynaldo Lopez got $30M over three years, partly because the Braves think they might be able leverage him as a SP.  To think two cheap years of Dylan Cease, who possesses some of the best stuff in all of baseball and is only one removed from a AL Cy Young runner-up season will command the same return as Giolito is very crazy to me.  Let me ask you this, what kind of contract would you expect Cease to get in this market if he were a free agent?

I don’t mean this to be disrespectful because this board is filled with many smart posters and everyone has been very welcoming to an outsider, but I don’t think some are grasping how expensive good SP will be this off-season and guys that can potentially provide real impact will be extremely expensive.  You guys may not have faith that getting Cease out of the worst organization in baseball will lead to a return to form, but I can guarantee that modern front offices are chomping at the bit to get their hands on him.  An unnamed Astros source last trade deadline called him their “dream acquisition”.  It’s 100% fine if you guys value your prospects over Cease, but there will be a GM who will prioritizing winning in the majors over winning in AAA.

Well first of all, you can’t compare deadline deals and offseason deals. They are just completely different.

You also were dealing with the Angels, who are one of the only teams that can give the WS a run for their money as the dumbest team in the sport.

Now, that said your point isn’t invalid either. I will say there is also far more pitching available right now vs the deadline, which is of course another reason you can’t compare things.

And I don’t think this is an idea of valuing prospects over Cease per se. I think it’s questioning just how good the return is going to be.

I think his value is hard to gauge because he has been good but not great for most of his career and despite your assertion that we should start looking at him from 2022 on, that’s just not realistic and no one is going to build a package around that idea. What he has been in his career absolutely matters. 
 

I also think money is easier to spend than prospects, if you are a team that will spend money.  So, maybe he gets a 5/110 type deal in free agency but trading 12-18 years of cheap service time is a different animal. 
 

I have read and heard some conflicting things on what his value will be. I get why you think it should be high but I also get why some think it won’t be as high as the WS think.  When those are the thoughts, to me it says something in the middle is what is realistic…IE, you aren’t getting a top 35 guy…but you should still get someone(s) inside the top 100 or just outside of it.

[Sports Guy]

So far, the only team I have publicly seen connected to Cease are the Dodgers. What are they giving up that is so good?  According to MLB.com, their 2 best prospects are just inside the top 50. 

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Ortiz and Cowser is possible.  I don’t think you’re getting Beavers or another prospect close to our top ten if you get those two.   As I said, that might be a fair deal (Ortiz and Cowser) but I don’t think Elias does it which means either the WS get a better offer elsewhere, hold onto Cease, or settle for less.

I do wonder, is there a team that can (and would) offer better than Cowser and Ortiz as a top two?  If so, who?

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do wonder, is there a team that can (and would) offer better than Cowser and Ortiz as a top two?  If so, who?

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

Just using this list as a guide, how many teams with a top 40 prospect would trade that player for Cease? I think a lot of those teams are out just because of their situations.

[RZNJ]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do wonder, is there a team that can (and would) offer better than Cowser and Ortiz as a top two?  If so, who?

I don’t believe there is.

[interloper]

I don't think Elias will touch Cease. I think (speculation) that he tried to get him at the deadline and laughed at Chicago's absurd price, and I think they will continue to have an absurd price. Ortiz and Cowser feels pretty absurd to me - it's so far above what any other team could offer as a duo of top prospects and therefore why would we make that trade? 

Some dumb team will give up like 5 of their top 10 prospects for Cease, mark it. We should look elsewhere. 

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.mlb.com/prospects

Just using this list as a guide, how many teams with a top 40 prospect would trade that player for Cease? I think a lot of those teams are out just because of their situations.

I can see 3 obvious possibilities: Cincy w/ Marte, Arizona w/ Druw Jones, and Philly w/ Andrew Painter.  I don't know much about Marte, but they could be the O's main competition for Cease as Cincy is stack w/ position prospects too.  Painter could be an interesting move by Philly to go all in as he's a potential ace and coming back from TJ.   That could fit WS timeline better than Philly's.  Druw Jones could be sort of a long shot and rolling dice.  His stock has fallen a lot since his debut w/ all his injuries.  I would think he still has All Star potential.  Would be interesting to get the White Sox fan's take on how these other prospects would appeal to the White Sox.  Most teams w/ top 40 prospects are looking to plug them into the lineup or rotation, not trade them.  A second top 100 prospect would need to be added, which not many teams can provide w/o severe damage to their farm. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I can see 3 obvious possibilities: Cincy w/ Marte, Arizona w/ Druw Jones, and Philly w/ Andrew Painter.  I don't know much about Marte, but they could be the O's main competition for Cease as Cincy is stack w/ position prospects too.  Painter could be an interesting move by Philly to go all in as he's a potential ace and coming back from TJ.   That could fit WS timeline better than Philly's.  Druw Jones could be sort of a long shot and rolling dice.  His stock has fallen a lot since his debut w/ all his injuries.  I would think he still has All Star potential.  Would be interesting to get the White Sox fan's take on how these other prospects would appeal to the White Sox.  Most teams w/ top 40 prospects are looking to plug them into the lineup or rotation, not trade them.  A second top 100 prospect would need to be added, which not many teams can provide w/o severe damage to their farm. 

I agree about Cinci but from what it sounds like, they are hoping to use someone like India to get their pitcher. Whether that can happen or not obviously remains to be seen.

Arizona will likely spend money on a starter imo…same with Philly.

I could see either just saying I think they would go the FA route.

Cinci is definitely a team. The Dodgers too but they don’t like to trade the prospects they really like.  They obviously can just buy guys too but they need multiple starters and if they get Othani, he’s not pitching this year.

I think St Louis, Cinci, LAD, Baltimore, Boston, NYY and maybe the Giants and Astros are the market for him.

What can those teams give up that’s top notch, that they would be willing to give up?

[Just Regular]

It may have been big market fluff, but yesterday MLB Dodgers-praising basically ran consecutive segments like:

1. Dodgers aggressively pursuing Mike Trout trade in parallel with Shohei Ohtani FA pursuit.

2. Dodgers also interested in Dylan Cease.

I think the market will give a view if LAD uses real pieces on Trout before Cease moves.     Cease very much reminds me of Bedard (2 years of control, 1 super spike year).     Is he better than Snell or Yamamoto?

I am kind of rooting for Kyle Gibson to get to be on the '24 Dodgers....I think they'll end up with someone like him to cover their Shohei until '25.

[Three Run Homer]

I'd rather trade for one of Seattle's starters than Cease.

I hope SG is wrong that the O's won't compete for pitchers like Sonny Gray or Eduardo Rodriguez, but it's a reasonable assumption that the O's will be tightwads until John Angelos proves otherwise.