O's should address the problem they have....

[HakunaSakata]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Mateo shouldn’t be blocking anyone the O’s can pawn him off to team with a terrible shortstop situation to make room on the roster. And while I’m a fan of Urias the Orioles can shift him to a utility role or consider including him as part of trade package to land a pitcher. 

That's fine, but until he's off the roster Mateo's technically blocking a younger player. We know Hyde has an affinity towards him. If he's on the roster he's going to play him. 

[backwardsk]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

He has 5 pitches.  93m 4 steamer.  The cutter and sinker got hit in 2023 but were good in 2022.  That is a starter mix.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/nick-martinez-607259?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

Yet SD gave 15 starts to Rich Hill (50 ERA+) and Ryan Weathers (66 ERA+) instead of giving Martinez more starts.

[wildcard]

47 minutes ago, backwardsk said:

Yet SD gave 15 starts to Rich Hill (50 ERA+) and Ryan Weathers (66 ERA+) instead of giving Martinez more starts.

Lot of strange stuff goes on with the Padres.

[Jagwar]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I think the only way we agree on that is when it happens.   Means is a bulldog

Even bulldogs can have injured limbs. 

[Sports Guy]

Wells had a 3.98 ERA in 20 starts last year.  Not sure why WC keeps talking about 15 starts of 3.3 ERA. 
 

 

[wildcard]

31 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Wells had a 3.98 ERA in 20 starts last year.  Not sure why WC keeps talking about 15 starts of 3.3 ERA. 
 

 

 

It's not a mystery.   

In 2023 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.21 ERA but his first 5 innings were in relief.  He made 5 more starts after that and ended with an ERA of 3.80.

In 2022 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.23 ERA.    He made 5 more starts before be shut down with an ERA of 3.90.  

So in two different season Wells has been able to pitch 15 starts with an ERA under 3.30.  So I round up.   

Most of us know in those two seasons that Wells had arm fatigue before he was shut down.  So if we want him in 2024 at his best they should option  him after 15 starts  before the arm fatigue causes him problems.   Limit his innings in Norfolk to keep him fresh and bring him back to the majors for late Sept and the playoff when the O's will need a starter that can pitch to a 3.30 ERA,

[24fps]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Not a problem they don't have.

The O's have 4.5 starters.   Bradish and GRod are #1,  Means is a #3 with a career 3.74 ERA.  Kremer a 4/5.   Wells projects to give the a 3.30 ERA for about 15 starts.    That make Wells a #3 starter for half a season.    As we are seeing a starter with a  3.30 ERA is very expensive.  Especially if you want him to pitch 30 starts.   So don't do that.

Go get the other 15 starts.

We look at the projections for ERod, Giolito, or Stroman are 3 or 4 years in this market.   Heck, even Wacha and Lugo are projecting 3 years.   I just don't see Elias doing any of that.

And trading away the O's prospects with six years of control does just not make a lot of sense.  Not with Hays, Santander and Mullins are getting close to Free  Agency. (Yes, the O's need them to make the playoffs in 2024).  Cowser and Kjerstad are going to be everyday outfielders in 2025.   The O's have a year to development them.  I think Urias will be traded this off season and Mateo will make 2.7m.  He certainly will not stay in 2025 when a raise is coming.  So the O's need Westburg, Ortiz and Holliday.

My suggestion is to sign Nick Martinez 2/20m or 25m.    He can reliever in the 1st half and start in the 2nd half.  He projects to give the O's a 3.50 ERA for 100 to 110 IP.  That is the other half of the 5th starter.  

I would pitch Wells for 15 starts and then plan to option him to Norfolk.   There I would limit his innings to keep him  fresh.   And I would bring him bring to the majors for late Sept and the playoffs.   His 3.30 ERA would look real good in the playoffs.

I would sign a late inning reliever ...FA or trade for him.    Urias, Norby and Stowers are trade chips.  Who ever does not go in that trade gets traded for pitching prospects.

Irvin and McDermott are back up starters/relievers.  Starter depth.

I think this is more likely than trading away valuable prospects or spending tons of money and years  for a starter.

 

Characterizing the O's rotation status as just needing to find 15 more starts somewhere is not only whimsical, but borderline magical as well.

Last year the O's used 9 pitchers as starters - for perspective the Red Sox and Yankees used 13 apiece, and the O's rotation had relatively good health.  In other words, having 4.5 starters already is halfway there.  One more really good starter to go into the OD rotation and another in reserve like Cole Irvin to go along with Wells is a comfortable starting point.

Trading away prospects who deserve playing time but won't get it is a good way to solve at least part of that problem.  And if the thought of giving up six years of a prospects service time is painful, then remember the prospects behind them will also have plenty of service time to covet.  It's a dynamic process and Elias seems to understand that.

Does anyone really believe that Elias is going to use the 2024 team as a finishing school for prospects?  I think 2-3 over the full course of the season if we're lucky, and I'm as excited as anybody to see the rookies play.

[forphase1]

2 hours ago, HakunaSakata said:

That's fine, but until he's off the roster Mateo's technically blocking a younger player. We know Hyde has an affinity towards him. If he's on the roster he's going to play him. 

Exactly.   Which is why I wanted him non tendered and now I want him traded or cut.  If he's on the roster he going to get playing time.  So get him of the roster. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

It's not a mystery.   

In 2023 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.21 ERA but his first 5 innings were in relief.  He made 5 more starts after that and ended with an ERA of 3.80.

In 2022 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.23 ERA.    He made 5 more starts before be shut down with an ERA of 3.90.  

So in two different season Wells has been able to pitch 15 starts with an ERA under 3.30.  So I round up.   

Most of us know in those two seasons that Wells had arm fatigue before he was shut down.  So if we want him in 2024 at his best they should option  him after 15 starts  before the arm fatigue causes him problems.   Limit his innings in Norfolk to keep him fresh and bring him back to the majors for late Sept and the playoff when the O's will need a starter that can pitch to a 3.30 ERA,

lol…so, we just magically cut him off at 15 starts?

That is nonsensical.

You are literally admitting that he isn’t trustworthy for a full season and yet you want to hand him a rotation spot, which means we need to a reliever and another starter too.

Its an awful use of resources and poor roster management.

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, 24fps said:

Characterizing the O's rotation status as just needing to find 15 more starts somewhere is not only whimsical, but borderline magical as well.

Last year the O's used 9 pitchers as starters - for perspective the Red Sox and Yankees used 13 apiece, and the O's rotation had relatively good health.  In other words, having 4.5 starters already is halfway there.  One more really good starter to go into the OD rotation and another in reserve like Cole Irvin to go along with Wells is a comfortable starting point.

Trading away prospects who deserve playing time but won't get it is a good way to solve at least part of that problem.  And if the thought of giving up six years of a prospects service time is painful, then remember the prospects behind them will also have plenty of service time to covet.  It's a dynamic process and Elias seems to understand that.

Does anyone really believe that Elias is going to use the 2024 team as a finishing school for prospects?  I think 2-3 over the full course of the season if we're lucky, and I'm as excited as anybody to see the rookies play.

32 starts - the number of start Kremer had in 2023

32 starts - Bradish had 30 starts in 2023 but missed to when hit of the foot.  He should be capable of making 32 starts

32 starts - Grayson made 31 starts between the minors and the majors in 2022.  He should be capable of making 32 starts.

26 starts - Means has made 26 starter twice in his career. He will have a full off season to train.

15 starts - Lets say Wells makes 15 starts next year.

15 starts by a another starter

That is 152 starts.   That leaves 10 starts Irvin who has started 30  games  in two different seasons in Oakland  or McDermott who made 22 last season in the minors the last 8 of which he made in AAA and ended with a 2.49 ERA at Norfolk.

This does not count Hall who I have pitching in relief or Povich and Johnson who I have in the minors.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

lol…so, we just magically cut him off at 15 starts?

That is nonsensical.

You are literally admitting that he isn’t trustworthy for a full season and yet you want to hand him a rotation spot, which means we need to a reliever and another starter too.

Its an awful use of resources and poor roster management.

I agree he has not proven he can go a full season without a break.   Optioning him at 15 starts and limiting he inning is the minors  saves him to pitch in the playoffs which is just smart management.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree he has not proven he can go a full season without a break.   Optioning him at 15 starts and limiting he inning is the minors  saves him to pitch in the playoffs which is just smart management.

This plan is the opposite of smart management. 

[waroriole]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

It's not a mystery.   

In 2023 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.21 ERA but his first 5 innings were in relief.  He made 5 more starts after that and ended with an ERA of 3.80.

In 2022 after 15 starts Wells had a 3.23 ERA.    He made 5 more starts before be shut down with an ERA of 3.90.  

So in two different season Wells has been able to pitch 15 starts with an ERA under 3.30.  So I round up.   

Most of us know in those two seasons that Wells had arm fatigue before he was shut down.  So if we want him in 2024 at his best they should option  him after 15 starts  before the arm fatigue causes him problems.   Limit his innings in Norfolk to keep him fresh and bring him back to the majors for late Sept and the playoff when the O's will need a starter that can pitch to a 3.30 ERA,

This is an odd answer. But, if you think 15 starts is his max, why not just wait until July/August to pitch him?

[wildcard]

25 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

Exactly.   Which is why I wanted him non tendered and now I want him traded or cut.  If he's on the roster he going to get playing time.  So get him of the roster. 

I think the plan can be the O's break camp with Gunnar, Westburg, Ortiz getting starting spots and veteran Mateo on the bench.

After 6 weeks Holliday is promoted to start at 2B if he shows he is ready.   Elias sees how Westburg and Ortiz are doing in those 6 weeks and if one is struggling he get optioned.   If everyone is doing well than Elias DFAs Mateo and trades him for a minor leaguers.  

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This plan is the opposite of smart management. 

That is an opinion and not a good one.   Managing pitchers innings is done every years by smart management.  Last year Elias/Hyde went to a 6 man rotation to save starters arms.   They could easily have a plan to get the best out of Wells and to have him start in the playoffs.