MLB Offseason Moves/Rumor Thread

[Spy Fox]

10 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's have 3 starters that can probably start 32 games next year.  Bradish, GRod and Kremer. That 96 games

Means may be able to start 25.   That 121 games.

That leaves 41 games to be started by the 5th, 6th and 7th starters.

Wells will probably only give 20 if he is a starter.  Some want him in the pen.

I am not comfortable with Irvin and McDermott starting between 21 to 41 games.

And unlike you I don't want Hall pitching 4 innings a start because he throws too many pitches an inning.

The O's need another starter.  

Lorenzen probably cost about 10m a year.   Added to the 13m for Kimbrel that would be about what the O's spend last year in FA. His career ERA is 4.11.  His ERA last year was 4.18 and 153 IP.  He may be better than that with the O's defense, analytics and pitching coaches.  That is about 50 point lower that Gibson.  He is also a right-handed reliever if needed.

Lorenzen may get a 2 year contract.  I doubt the O's go there.  Lorenzen is a one year stopgap waiting for McDermott, Hall, Johnson and Povich to mature.  But the FA market only gets worse from here.

Its pretty close to the salary that is projected for Cease.   So in the ballpark.   But the Sox want a bunch of high value prospects.   I don't know if that is happening. 

Would I love a better starter? Sure.   I just don't know where that is coming from.

I don't see Lorenzen as any more reliable than Irvin. 

I don't think signing a 1 year back of rotation starter has much point, but if they do go for it, I'd rather see a more boom or bust guy like Ryu or Paxton. As opposed to a guy like Lorenzen who is maybe more predictable but has a career ERA as a SP in the mid 4s. 

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Would Ortiz or Westburg plus a prospect or 2 outside the O's top 20 be enough for Cabrera. 

This is just a hunch, but I feel like the Marlins might have started to sour on Cabrera a bit, which might allow us to get him for a bit of a discount. If they're looking for a bat to replace Soler then something like Mountcastle + a lower level prospect might make sense for both clubs. 

[Yardball85]

10 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I don't see Lorenzen as any more reliable than Irvin. 

I don't think signing a 1 year back of rotation starter has much point, but if they do go for it, I'd rather see a more boom or bust guy like Ryu or Paxton. As opposed to a guy like Lorenzen who is maybe more predictable but has a career ERA as a SP in the mid 4s. 

Agreed.  Get Cease or Valdez, or just roll with Irvin, who was perfectly solid last year after the rough April. 

[bpilktree]

20 minutes ago, Ripken said:

And what if that's not how it goes?  Injuries happen and I don't want Kremer starting a playoff game.  Could he have a really good season and change that opinion?  Yes, but that's certainly not expected right now.  And, yes, they can add pitching during the season, but it's always more expensive.  Elias really, really needs to improve the rotation now.  Enough hoarding prospects and squeezing every dime.

Is it really more expensive to trade for starters during the season?  You get a pitcher ear for less time usually so the price goes down often especially if it is for a rental.  Jordan Montgomery was traded for two meh prospects.  Lorenzen went for peanuts the rumored ERod return was pretty low though he blocked the trade.  Cease will have to pitch like an ace imo the first half of the year to have the same trade value come July.   The Pirates don’t play Mitch Keller’s name will become the talk at the deadline as well.  

[Sports Guy]

34 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's have 3 starters that can probably start 32 games next year.  Bradish, GRod and Kremer. That 96 games

Means may be able to start 25.   That 121 games.

That leaves 41 games to be started by the 5th, 6th and 7th starters.

Wells will probably only give 20 if he is a starter.  Some want him in the pen.

I am not comfortable with Irvin and McDermott starting between 21 to 41 games.

And unlike you I don't want Hall pitching 4 innings a start because he throws too many pitches an inning.

The O's need another starter.  

Lorenzen probably cost about 10m a year.   Added to the 13m for Kimbrel that would be about what the O's spend last year in FA. His career ERA is 4.11.  His ERA last year was 4.18 and 153 IP.  He may be better than that with the O's defense, analytics and pitching coaches.  That is about 50 point lower that Gibson.  He is also a right-handed reliever if needed.

Lorenzen may get a 2 year contract.  I doubt the O's go there.  Lorenzen is a one year stopgap waiting for McDermott, Hall, Johnson and Povich to mature.  But the FA market only gets worse from here.

Its pretty close to the salary that is projected for Cease.   So in the ballpark.   But the Sox want a bunch of high value prospects.   I don't know if that is happening. 

Would I love a better starter? Sure.   I just don't know where that is coming from.

Lorenzen isn’t better than what we have

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I don't see Lorenzen as any more reliable than Irvin. 

I don't think signing a 1 year back of rotation starter has much point, but if they do go for it, I'd rather see a more boom or bust guy like Ryu or Paxton. As opposed to a guy like Lorenzen who is maybe more predictable but has a career ERA as a SP in the mid 4s. 

Lorenzen has a 4.24 starter ERA in 2022.  Last year it was 4.06.  It was 3.58 with the Tigers before he moved the Phillies.   I don't think the stats from 2015 are very predictive.

Edited January 8 by wildcard

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

Agreed.  Get Cease or Valdez, or just roll with Irvin, who was perfectly solid last year after the rough April. 

I get what you're saying, but Irvin only had four starts post all-star break. That's a pretty small sample size of not sucking. 

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Lorenzen isn’t better than what we have

I hope you are right but I would not bet the season on it.

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Lorenzen has a 4.24 starter ERA in 2022.  Last year it was 4.06.  It was 3.58 with the Tiger before he move the Phillies.   I don't the the stats for 2015 are very predictive.

Not sure how that's better than Irvin's back-to-back 180 IP campaigns at 4.24 and 3.98 ERAs, when factoring in the amount of innings pitched. 

[Yardball85]

4 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I get what you're saying, but Irvin only had four starts post all-star break. That's a pretty small sample size of not sucking. 

Fair point.  Definitely not guaranteeing anything from Irvin.  But I remember Lorenzen from his Cincy and LA days (used to hit too I think) and am just not all that enamored with him.  He will probably cost 1 year $10M, whereas Irvin is dirt cheap.  

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I hope you are right but I would not bet the season on it.

But you would bet it on a subpar pitcher with very little history of being good or throwing a lot of innings?  
 

That doesn’t make any sense. You are flushing money down the toilet here because he was an AS last year.  That’s it, that’s the only reason.  You aren’t making the team better by adding him.

 

[wildcard]

13 minutes ago, interloper said:

Not sure how that's better than Irvin's back-to-back 180 IP campaigns at 4.24 and 3.98 ERAs, when factoring in the amount of innings pitched. 

Irvin ERA

2021   Oakland Park - 3.90,   Away   4.57

2022  Oakland Park -3.07.   Away   5.26

He is not pitching in Oakland Park more that once a season now.

Edited January 8 by wildcard

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, Yardball85 said:

Fair point.  Definitely not guaranteeing anything from Irvin.  But I remember Lorenzen from his Cincy and LA days (used to hit too I think) and am just not all that enamored with him.  He will probably cost 1 year $10M, whereas Irvin is dirt cheap.  

Oh by no means was my comment meant to be an endorsement of Lorenzen. His drop in Ks ever since he transitioned back to being a starter is alarming. 

[btdart20]

5 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

This is just a hunch, but I feel like the Marlins might have started to sour on Cabrera a bit, which might allow us to get him for a bit of a discount. If they're looking for a bat to replace Soler then something like Mountcastle + a lower level prospect might make sense for both clubs. 

Fuji redux.  The 1 percentile BB% is his kryptonite.  But that 96 MPH CH is something else!

 

[Yardball85]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Oh by no means was my comment meant to be an endorsement of Lorenzen. His drop in Ks ever since he transitioned back to being a starter is alarming. 

Agreed.  I think his no-hitter, while fun, is possibly increasing his value and worth in many people's minds.  Hopefully not ME and co.