I don't care what Elias says, they have to - and will - make a trade

[PeteCanes]

11 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I reached peak McKenna and Mateo last year. I've seen all I think we're gonna see from them. Urias is more valuable IMO, but I'd be fine with handing off his role to Ortiz. 

the apex of my positive thoughts of Mateo as anything but some weird super sub have reached… indifference  

[LookinUp]

I think Elias knows a lot about our pipeline and isn't about to trade any of them to make people feel better. Definitely not for 1-year rentals, and preferably not for 2-year rentals. 

I know people are frustrated that we didn't go for it at the last two deadlines, or in those off-seasons. At the same time, we honestly weren't really competitive against Texas. I think we needed two very significant upgrades (one bat, one starter) and the cost would have been extremely high, like we wouldn't have at least 1 of Mayo/Basallo and at least 1 of Cowser/Kjerstad, plus others like Ortiz would have likely had to be included.

Just to have a higher probability in what is always a free for all tournament. 

I tend to trust Elias even though I wish he wasn't quite so conservative. For me, personally, that's because I genuinely see a long run in front of this franchise and I don't want that possibility short-circuited by over paying for rentals.

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I know people are frustrated that we didn't go for it at the last two deadlines, or in those off-seasons. At the same time, we honestly weren't really competitive against Texas. I think we needed two very significant upgrades (one bat, one starter) and the cost would have been extremely high, like we wouldn't have at least 1 of Mayo/Basallo and at least 1 of Cowser/Kjerstad, plus others like Ortiz would have likely had to be included.

Just talking baseball in a slow winter, I do think the particular circumstances of the TEX loss lend themselves to review as Eovaldi and Montgomery were their 1-2 punch.     Both were reasonable acquisition targets only a tick or two beyond players Elias actually got.

Eovaldi/Montgomery threw the same 44% of the team's October innings as Scherzer/Strasburg, Verlander/Cole, Wheeler/Nola.

Value can vanish if you fold or check when you should bet or raise, and we're now on the 3rd hand in a row with an Adley Rutschman ace in the hole.

I hope we win Glasnow, Cease or Burnes, but I will say Irvin/Wells give decent cover for making it to July 31, which would give a view how many All-Star starting pitchers the '24 Orioles open with.

[Os Fever]

4 hours ago, PeteCanes said:

the apex of my positive thoughts of Mateo as anything but some weird super sub have reached… indifference  

I'm new here. First post. Great insights all around. 

My reaction to the OP's thoughts are that we have plenty of extraneous pieces we can trade both from the Big Show, as well as the farm.

DON'T KILL ME ON THIS....But as much as Mateo infuriates me with his whiffing on sliders 2 feet off the plate, he has value as a very "weird super sub". I would try to hold onto Mateo unless a team values him a good glove starting SS. He is a top 10 fielding SS and perhaps a top 10 fielding CF. The dude has range in the OF and so much athleticism. He could even platoon with Mullins there against tough LHPs. He also has value as a pinch runner in close games. I would trade Urias wayyyy sooner. 

I would trade Santandar, Mullins or Hayes if it helps us secure a SP from Miami, Seattle, or Cleveland who all need hitting. I agree with the OP that a trade has got to be imminent, as it is necessary to clear the OF and IF logjam. 

And don't get me started on Ryan McKenna. That was a strange tender decision. I would have non-tendered him if he didn't accept a split majors/miners contract. Minimal power. Does not hit for average. Does not seem to have any upside. Takes away at bats from our top prospects. 

 

 

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, Os Fever said:

I'm new here. First post. Great insights all around. 

My reaction to the OP's thoughts are that we have plenty of extraneous pieces we can trade both from the Big Show, as well as the farm.

DON'T KILL ME ON THIS....But as much as Mateo infuriates me with his whiffing on sliders 2 feet off the plate, he has value as a very "weird super sub". I would try to hold onto Mateo unless a team values him a good glove starting SS. He is a top 10 fielding SS and perhaps a top 10 fielding CF. The dude has range in the OF and so much athleticism. He could even platoon with Mullins there against tough LHPs. He also has value as a pinch runner in close games. I would trade Urias wayyyy sooner. 

I would trade Santandar, Mullins or Hayes if it helps us secure a SP from Miami, Seattle, or Cleveland who all need hitting. I agree with the OP that a trade has got to be imminent, as it is necessary to clear the OF and IF logjam. 

And don't get me started on Ryan McKenna. That was a strange tender decision. I would have non-tendered him if he didn't accept a split majors/miners contract. Minimal power. Does not hit for average. Does not seem to have any upside. Takes away at bats from our top prospects. 

 

 

Welcome, nice 1st post.

[RZNJ]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Just talking baseball in a slow winter, I do think the particular circumstances of the TEX loss lend themselves to review as Eovaldi and Montgomery were their 1-2 punch.     Both were reasonable acquisition targets only a tick or two beyond players Elias actually got.

Eovaldi/Montgomery threw the same 44% of the team's October innings as Scherzer/Strasburg, Verlander/Cole, Wheeler/Nola.

Value can vanish if you fold or check when you should bet or raise, and we're now on the 3rd hand in a row with an Adley Rutschman ace in the hole.

I hope we win Glasnow, Cease or Burnes, but I will say Irvin/Wells give decent cover for making it to July 31, which would give a view how many All-Star starting pitchers the '24 Orioles open with.

Degrom and Scherzer but their 1-2 punch was Eovaldi and Montgomery.   2 out of 4 ain’t bad.

[LookinUp]

5 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Just talking baseball in a slow winter, I do think the particular circumstances of the TEX loss lend themselves to review as Eovaldi and Montgomery were their 1-2 punch.     Both were reasonable acquisition targets only a tick or two beyond players Elias actually got.

Eovaldi/Montgomery threw the same 44% of the team's October innings as Scherzer/Strasburg, Verlander/Cole, Wheeler/Nola.

Eovaldi would have made more sense, since he was a free agent. I know I wanted him. 

That said, the Rangers are instructive just how risky their approach was. They paid massive money to DeGrom and Sherzer, a fair amount to Eovaldi and had to trade for Montgomery. And who knew Montgomery would turn into Sandy Koufax? 

And that's on top of their other expensive signings. I'd say they went all in and were essentially lucky it clicked at the right time. Imagine losing a couple more games over 162 and not even making the playoffs with those committments.

[E-D-D-I-E]

6 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I think Elias knows a lot about our pipeline and isn't about to trade any of them to make people feel better. Definitely not for 1-year rentals, and preferably not for 2-year rentals. 

I know people are frustrated that we didn't go for it at the last two deadlines, or in those off-seasons. At the same time, we honestly weren't really competitive against Texas. I think we needed two very significant upgrades (one bat, one starter) and the cost would have been extremely high, like we wouldn't have at least 1 of Mayo/Basallo and at least 1 of Cowser/Kjerstad, plus others like Ortiz would have likely had to be included.

Just to have a higher probability in what is always a free for all tournament. 

I tend to trust Elias even though I wish he wasn't quite so conservative. For me, personally, that's because I genuinely see a long run in front of this franchise and I don't want that possibility short-circuited by over paying for rentals.

While I agree your strategy of not trading for 1/2 year rentals sounds great when said, its not reality. Your not getting a good 1/2 rotation arm with 3 years remaining. So, in order to improve your rotation, a 1/2 year rental HAS to be a viable option. If not, why draft 15 position players and no pitchers, if you weren't going to deal from the excess? We have quality prospects that have no place to go but AAA. (Ortiz/Norby) Elias needs to strike now and get us a #3 at worst. If it means trading a couple good prospects, so be it. We have more prospects coming.

Edited December 12, 2023 by E-D-D-I-E

[Can_of_corn]

6 hours ago, LookinUp said:

I think Elias knows a lot about our pipeline and isn't about to trade any of them to make people feel better. Definitely not for 1-year rentals, and preferably not for 2-year rentals. 

I know people are frustrated that we didn't go for it at the last two deadlines, or in those off-seasons. At the same time, we honestly weren't really competitive against Texas. I think we needed two very significant upgrades (one bat, one starter) and the cost would have been extremely high, like we wouldn't have at least 1 of Mayo/Basallo and at least 1 of Cowser/Kjerstad, plus others like Ortiz would have likely had to be included.

Just to have a higher probability in what is always a free for all tournament. 

I tend to trust Elias even though I wish he wasn't quite so conservative. For me, personally, that's because I genuinely see a long run in front of this franchise and I don't want that possibility short-circuited by over paying for rentals.

If they had played another best of five right after the O's very well might have won.

You know this.

Texas got smoking hot at the right time, that doesn't mean the O's shouldn't have tried to improve the team.

If the O's trade for Montgomery instead of Texas what happens?

Does Texas even make the playoffs?

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Os Fever said:

I'm new here. First post. Great insights all around. 

My reaction to the OP's thoughts are that we have plenty of extraneous pieces we can trade both from the Big Show, as well as the farm.

DON'T KILL ME ON THIS....But as much as Mateo infuriates me with his whiffing on sliders 2 feet off the plate, he has value as a very "weird super sub". I would try to hold onto Mateo unless a team values him a good glove starting SS. He is a top 10 fielding SS and perhaps a top 10 fielding CF. The dude has range in the OF and so much athleticism. He could even platoon with Mullins there against tough LHPs. He also has value as a pinch runner in close games. I would trade Urias wayyyy sooner. 

I would trade Santandar, Mullins or Hayes if it helps us secure a SP from Miami, Seattle, or Cleveland who all need hitting. I agree with the OP that a trade has got to be imminent, as it is necessary to clear the OF and IF logjam. 

And don't get me started on Ryan McKenna. That was a strange tender decision. I would have non-tendered him if he didn't accept a split majors/miners contract. Minimal power. Does not hit for average. Does not seem to have any upside. Takes away at bats from our top prospects. 

 

 

If we’re not trading away anyone, then Mateo fits the bench in a super sub role because we don’t have to keep McKenna or Hilliard. We ended last year with a 4 man bench of Hick, Mateo, Urias, McCann. If Hicks comes back, then that would probably be our OF bench. 

[Jagwar]

7 hours ago, PeteCanes said:

the apex of my positive thoughts of Mateo as anything but some weird super sub have reached… indifference  

I really thought April 2023 Mateo was a sign of his breakout. 

[Since1984]

2 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I really thought April 2023 Mateo was a sign of his breakout. 

I thought it was a sign too, a potential frequent all-star. Wonder how much the competition messed with confidence, or how quickly he can adjust to pitchers and stand tall defensively (with variable playing time)
 

Gunnar slumped, Mateo was on fire in ‘23. Mateo had the reigns in ‘22 and had a good little run before Gunnar arrived. Could be coincidence, but Mateo can be one of the most exciting players to cheer for with his speed, defense and an occasional plus streaky bat!

Brooks hailed Mateo with his first FT mlb playing time in’22. Impressed a defensive guru!

[Orioles0615]

Seth Lugo is signing a 3/45 deal with KC, yea we have to trade cause we sure as hell ain't signing anyone 

[oriolediehard]

I think our best hope of moves is for the O's to be sold. Angelos doesn't deserve the O's as he does nothing to make improvements.

[Rbiggs2525]

I would prefer to deal from Hays, Santander, Mountcastle, and Urias. Elias team should have a pitcher in their back pocket with high upside. You have the backup players if needed.