Is our no. 2 - 5 prospect pecking order all that clear?

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Kjerstad over Basallo is a bold take.

I'm not sure I'd do that even if you guaranteed me Basallo won't stick at Catcher.

Gotcha …  Younger player … let’s see what he does at AA. My other issue is he has limited value as a 1B/DH type. So let’s see if he can stick at C.

Edited January 15 by Roll Tide

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I have 

Holiday 

Mayo

Kjerstad

Basallo 

Ortiz

Cowser

If every ranking system, when updated, has Basallo ahead of Kjerstad, will you stick with this?

[luismatos4prez]

I trust Tony's opinion way more than the others. 1. Holliday 2. Basallo 3. Mayo is clear to me. Outside of that it gets murkier.

I think Basallo has a clear chance to be our 4th straight #1 overall prospect next year. The list of catchers who made the majors by age 22 this century is short and mostly perennial all-stars (Yadi, Brian McCann, Mauer, Salvador Perez).

Basallo absolutely raked in A+ with great plate discipline in his age 18 season while playing purportedly strong defense at catcher. That's really rare. He'd be a Top 100 prospect if he had David Ortiz's defensive skills imo. That he can catch on top of that?!

That being said, it wasn't that big of a sample. But I'm excited to see what he does in Bowie this spring.

We have a potentially really special lineup forming with these prospects and the organization's current development abilities.

[Roll Tide]

7 hours ago, RZNJ said:

If every ranking system, when updated, has Basallo ahead of Kjerstad, will you stick with this?

I try not to get too excited about 18 year old players in the lower minors. My rankings don’t matter anymore than yours so really it’s irrelevant. Again, how valuable is he if he outgrows catcher and essentially ends up a DH? I mean his catching is a work in progress, we can assume it’s the same at 1B as well. He may end up being average at 1B or better. It’s a toss up right now. 

[Jim'sKid26]

Do you think the Sigbot has them ranked? What would the criteria be? I suspect it's a scatter plot with multiple contingency scenarios. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

12 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Tony’s list is certainly the most informed, and the most timely. The MLB list will probably be different when their preseason list comes out. That list was last re-ranked at the All Star break, I think. I’m not sure about the CBS list.

BA has Holliday, Basallo, Mayo, Cowser and Kjerstad. That list is fresh as well, and it is well-informed since Jon Meoli writes it.

IMHO, Holliday is the only untouchable. Basallo, Mayo and Kjerstad should not go anywhere, unless it’s for a crazy-good deal they cannot pass up. 

This is the answer. It’s about the timeliness of the lists, Mayo and especially Basallo raised their stock tremendously over the course of last season and especially late in the season. Other than BA and Tony I don’t think a lot of sources have properly updated. The only recent one is that CBS list, and I don’t put a lot of stock in a list from a source not known for independent prospect evaluation and which doesn’t know the system well enough to rank more than 3 players. 

Anybody who does not have Mayo/Basallo as some combination of 2/3 is just either not up to date or way low on their defensive abilities (which may also be because they are not up to date).  Their offensive production at their respective levels and ages is phenomenal. 

I do think Cowser is a very divisive prospect and hard to pin down. At the time he was called up he had been obliterating AAA to the tune of something like a 150 wRC+ and was around a top 15 prospect in baseball. So it really depends on how much you knock him down for his MLB stint and lukewarm performance once going back down to AAA. 

Kjerstad is also divisive because of his age and lack of pro experience due to injury. He really didn’t get things back together clicking fully for him until the AFL last year - he did ok during the 2022 regular season but was in A ball and didn’t have the in game power. Then he was the best player in the AFL and shot through the upper minors and made his MLB debut in one year. The talent is undeniable but he didn’t completely dominate AAA like you’d want to see for a 24 year old to be confident putting him on the same level as the others - but it looks a lot better if you look at that more as his second pro season than his age 24 season. 

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I try not to get too excited about 18 year old players in the lower minors. My rankings don’t matter anymore than yours so really it’s irrelevant. Again, how valuable is he if he outgrows catcher and essentially ends up a DH? I mean his catching is a work in progress, we can assume it’s the same at 1B as well. He may end up being average at 1B or better. It’s a toss up right now. 

I’m not talking about your rankings.  I’m talking about the national ranking outlets that you’ve been treating like gospel for weeks now.   

[sportsfan8703]

The funny thing about saying that there is a big drop off from Basallo/Mayo to Kjerstad/Cowser is that Kjerstad was the former #2 overall draft pick that just had his first full healthy pro season, and Cowser got up to as high as #10 on some prospect lists last year.

The big drop off is after 5. However, EBJ has the ceiling to get into that convo with the top 5. Let’s see how he hits this year. 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

I’m not talking about your rankings.  I’m talking about the national ranking outlets that you’ve been treating like gospel for weeks now.   

I only really look at MLB… not paying for Baseball America and I’m not a fan of Fangraphs. So it’s just MLB.com. 
 

Im not sure what you’re at here.  I agree that they should know better than me since they are paid to work on this stuff. 
 

In my mind, I’m still going with what I have until a reason (his AA season) changes my mind. Even then, as I mentioned, I’m concerned he ends up a DH or 1B. That decreases his value quite a bit. Tony, and other sources think he can stick at Catcher. But, I don’t think anyone is saying it’s a lock. Plus his defensive skills at C are still developing. MLB since you brought it up has his defense as a 45 but a 60 ARM. I’m not sure but I think 50 is average. So he’s considered below on the fall report.

 

Anyway, you don’t have to agree. You can go with the colored bubbles outlook. I have no problem that you have him ranked higher than me. Truthfully, if I, dealing any of our top 4 guys besides Cowser it’s him. 

[Jammer7]

32 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

The funny thing about saying that there is a big drop off from Basallo/Mayo to Kjerstad/Cowser is that Kjerstad was the former #2 overall draft pick that just had his first full healthy pro season, and Cowser got up to as high as #10 on some prospect lists last year.

The big drop off is after 5. However, EBJ has the ceiling to get into that convo with the top 5. Let’s see how he hits this year. 

It depends on how you look at it.  do think it’s a huge drop after Holliday, Basallo and Mayo to Kjerstad and Cowser. Just based on potential. Maybe the actual outcome will be less of a gap, but Basallo has 80 future raw power, per Tony. He and Mayo are generally rated as 70 power guys, and they are both large humans. Kjerstad is rated at 60-65. Basallo and Mayo have 70 arms, and Basallo is seen as a guy who can remain at catcher (premium position) despite his size. Cowser and Kjerstad may have higher floors, but ceiling-wise, the top three are well above them.

I’m not as high on Cowser as some. What does a successful Cowser look like at the MLB level? A corner OF with 55 power? Is that the profile we want, as a legitimate first division contender? To me, he also has a lot to prove about his makeup. 

I think Kjerstad is a little underrated by some. Another year of experience and I think we see less swing and miss, better decisions and we see him get to his 65 power more. He’s a better defender than some say, probably about average, maybe a tick above. Maybe around the same as Santander, another underrated defender. 

I am very curious what EBJ is going to look like. A true elite CF. Can he hit? I think so, and what better organization for him to learn?  80 speed and defense would look nice in CF as Mullins’ replacement in 25-26. 

[Frobby]

By the way, one reason I wouldn’t trade Basallo is that he’s the flagship of our international program.  He’s the guy who, in a couple of years, we can point to when recruiting international players and say, “see?”   

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I only really look at MLB… not paying for Baseball America and I’m not a fan of Fangraphs. So it’s just MLB.com. 
 

Im not sure what you’re at here.  I agree that they should know better than me since they are paid to work on this stuff. 
 

In my mind, I’m still going with what I have until a reason (his AA season) changes my mind. Even then, as I mentioned, I’m concerned he ends up a DH or 1B. That decreases his value quite a bit. Tony, and other sources think he can stick at Catcher. But, I don’t think anyone is saying it’s a lock. Plus his defensive skills at C are still developing. MLB since you brought it up has his defense as a 45 but a 60 ARM. I’m not sure but I think 50 is average. So he’s considered below on the fall report.

 

Anyway, you don’t have to agree. You can go with the colored bubbles outlook. I have no problem that you have him ranked higher than me. Truthfully, if I, dealing any of our top 4 guys besides Cowser it’s him. 

So if mlb, Tony, BA, Law, and just baseball have Basallo rated above Kjerstad they all a colored bubbles take?   LOL

[Just Regular]

11 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

It depends on how you look at it.  do think it’s a huge drop after Holliday, Basallo and Mayo to Kjerstad and Cowser. Just based on potential.

Seconded.     The fun notion is Basallo 2.67 years younger than Mayo, is he closer to Holliday than Mayo in general value?

That's with the Coby Mayo baseline where we'll get to see whether he's basically Wyatt Langford's equal as a Florida recruit, talent that would have been in the 1-1 mix in the 2023 draft, and 2024 opening day roster candidate.

Kjerstad and Cowser haven't really done anything wrong but still feel like headed for Gibson-Kremer type roles.    Jesse Winker and Joc Pederson types can be serious contributors.

Its still possible AA pitchers are going to make Samuel Basallo hit .208 but boy will it be fun if they can't.

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

I only really look at MLB… not paying for Baseball America and I’m not a fan of Fangraphs. So it’s just MLB.com. 
 

Im not sure what you’re at here.  I agree that they should know better than me since they are paid to work on this stuff. 
 

In my mind, I’m still going with what I have until a reason (his AA season) changes my mind. Even then, as I mentioned, I’m concerned he ends up a DH or 1B. That decreases his value quite a bit. Tony, and other sources think he can stick at Catcher. But, I don’t think anyone is saying it’s a lock. Plus his defensive skills at C are still developing. MLB since you brought it up has his defense as a 45 but a 60 ARM. I’m not sure but I think 50 is average. So he’s considered below on the fall report.

 

Anyway, you don’t have to agree. You can go with the colored bubbles outlook. I have no problem that you have him ranked higher than me. Truthfully, if I, dealing any of our top 4 guys besides Cowser it’s him. 

What if Basallo gives us 2-3 years as a catcher while he’s young?  Heck. Kjerstad, might not have 2-3 years in him as a RF. 

[Bilbo]

I wouldn’t trade Basallo,Holiday or Mayo.  Cowser, Westburg and Kjerstad would be available along with Norby or Ortiz for Cease or Luzardo.  Prefer not to include DL Hall.