Roster implications for trading Ortiz

[Billy F-Face3]

11 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Seems like trading Ortiz solidifies Gunnar as the SS. 

This probably has implications for Mayo playing 3B. Which makes me wonder how 1B will go farther into the future.

[scarey1999]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

I’ve seen enough of Holliday that my feeling is that he ends up at 2B. That’s my opinion and time will tell us. 

I realize I’m not a regular poster and not any sort of professional scout, but I agree 100% with you.

I watched about 30-40 games of his games on MiLB.tv. He made all the routine plays at SS. Never anything spectacular like the highlight reels Gunnar has filled up. His actions seemed very stiff at times. Definitely not what I’d call fluid or smooth. None of the throws he made had anywhere near the pop Gunnar shows from SS. The term competent comes to mind.

Anecdotal, yes, but I’d label his SS defense thus far exactly average. Could he improve? Sure. I hope he does. Competition is always a good thing. He’s young, but he’s only 2 1/2 years behind Gunnar. 

[Gurgi]

5 minutes ago, scarey1999 said:

I realize I’m not a regular poster and not any sort of professional scout, but I agree 100% with you.

I watched about 30-40 games of his games on MiLB.tv. He made all the routine plays at SS. Never anything spectacular like the highlight reels Gunnar has filled up. His actions seemed very stiff at times. Definitely not what I’d call fluid or smooth. None of the throws he made had anywhere near the pop Gunnar shows from SS. The term competent comes to mind.

Anecdotal, yes, but I’d label his SS defense thus far exactly average. Could he improve? Sure. I hope he does. Competition is always a good thing. He’s young, but he’s only 2 1/2 years behind Gunnar. 

I watched him multiple times on Milb last year also.  I saw nothing flashy on defense.  I would start Gunnar at SS and open the season with Holiday at second.  Westburg at third with Mayo in AAA waiting for a chance to jump in there if Westburg or Mountcastle slip.  

[forphase1]

4 hours ago, owknows said:

That's a little too much Mateo.

I agree 100%.  If trading Ortiz means we are going to see a ton more of Mateo, that kinda lessens my feelings on the Burnes trade.  Still a good trade of course, I just REALLY don't want to see Mateo getting much playing time this year, but since we traded his likely replacement, IMO, I guess we are stuck with Mateo until either Mayo or Holiday are up, which moves some things around.  Unfortunately I don't think either make the OD roster, and may not be up until mid summer or even later depending.  Which means Mateo and Urias will get more at bats than they really should, and that's going to blow.  

[Safelykept]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

This had to be done. Been saying it for months. One of Westburg or Ortiz had to go. You don’t have a talent like that to be a uti guy. You use it to acquire something you need and that is exactly what Elias did.

As for the roster implications…first off, it makes it more possible Holliday starts here on OD. I still don’t think it happens but it’s possible.

The reality is that the Os now have 3 IFers that can play Multiple positions and with the way they like versatility, that may be how they do it.

I still say Holliday ends up at SS and Gunnar ends up at third. I think Westburg is solidly the choice at second.

I suspect, to begin the year, that the Os play Mateo vs lefties. Urias will get some time, if not traded, and Mayo and Holliday will go to AAA to work on defense and refining some skills.

I still think you could see Santander, Mounty or Hays dealt, especially if it means adding a high leverage reliever who is cheap and has team control in the deal. That makes sense to me.  Keep clearing some of this out.

Yeah a certain Nl team that has excess pitching but needs Bats.

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

You overrate Gunnar’s SS defense, underrate Holliday’s chances of improvement and seemingly completely overlook the idea that Gunnar is likely to be a GG level third baseman and no one else will touch him in the org over there. 
 

Again, Holliday doesn’t have to be the best defensive SS to be the starting SS. The alignment that they choose has to be the best.

Gunnar at third and Holliday at SS could easily be the best combo even if Holliday isn’t better at SS than Gunnar (which remains to be seen as Holliday gets stronger and works on his arm strength).

I don’t think babks703 overrates Gunnar’s defense at SS at all.  He’s very good overall.  I certainly do agree that it’s possible Holliday can make a defensive jump and that long run our best overall alignment couid end up being Holliday at SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B.  But right now I think our best alignment (when those 3 are on the field) is Gunnar SS, Westburg 3B, Holliday 2B.  We’ll see plenty of mixing and matching this spring I’m sure, with Mateo, Urias, and Mayo all in the mix as well.  Should be a fun spring.  

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

This probably has implications for Mayo playing 3B. Which makes me wonder how 1B will go farther into the future.

I’d imagine it depends on Holiday. If he goes to SS …you could move Gunner back to 3B, leave Westburg at 2B , and play Mayo at 1B

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think babks703 overrates Gunnar’s defense at SS at all.  He’s very good overall.  I certainly do agree that it’s possible Holliday can make a defensive jump and that long run our best overall alignment couid end up being Holliday at SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B.  But right now I think our best alignment (when those 3 are on the field) is Gunnar SS, Westburg 3B, Holliday 2B.  We’ll see plenty of mixing and matching this spring I’m sure, with Mateo, Urias, and Mayo all in the mix as well.  Should be a fun spring.  

I still don’t think it would be that big of a surprise if one of Mateo/Urias moves before spring training.

[ChuckS]

12 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I still don’t think it would be that big of a surprise if one of Mateo/Urias moves before spring training.

One thing to consider is that it only takes one injury to any one of six infielders (Mountcastle and O’Hearn included), to open up an additional spot for a Holliday, Mayo, maybe even Norby.

Often these things just work themselves out. I’m fine going into the season with both Mateo and Urias in the mix. Not married to either. 

Edited February 2 by ChuckS

[Moose Milligan]

The roster implication is that it just got better. 

[Rbiggs2525]

54 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

The roster implication is that it just got better. 

I agree and since we may be able to spend a few dollars, Hall can be replaced for 7-10 million dollars. Probably 10 percent chance he was going to be a starting pitcher here. Also McDermott is basically the right handed version of Hall.

Edited February 2 by Rbiggs2525

[owknows]

I think the acquisition of Burnes significantly increases the likelihood of the promotion of Mayo and Holliday. The fact that Burnes is only under team control for 2024 means that they have chose to spend significant personnel and draft capital for a one year window. (not that they won't further supplement that window, but whether they do or don't... Burnes' contribution only last a year)

As such, I think it likely that the front office will have to think carefully as to what gives them the better odds of success this year.

Is it more likely that Mateo/Urias will outperform career norms? As opposed to say, Holliday/Mayo having extended adjustment periods if they break camp with the big club... Which tandem are likely to put up a higher WAR next season... Career norm Mateo/Urias? Or Rookie Holliday/Mayo.

And should they opt for 2B-SS-3B-Util combo of Holliday/Henderson/Mayo/Westburg.. (recognizing that Mayo would likely do a lot of DHing and OF spotting) an injury to any of Holliday/Henderson/Westburg becomes a little more significant.

I'd wager that they are going to stay with their historical tendency of conservative decision making and defensive emphasis, and hold onto Mateo as Util...

But the 1 year Burnes pressure may trigger something a little more bold. Should be interesting to see.

[Aristotelian]

59 minutes ago, owknows said:

I think the acquisition of Burnes significantly increases the likelihood of the promotion of Mayo and Holliday. The fact that Burnes is only under team control for 2024 means that they have chose to spend significant personnel and draft capital for a one year window. (not that they won't further supplement that window, but whether they do or don't... Burnes' contribution only last a year)

As such, I think it likely that the front office will have to think carefully as to what gives them the better odds of success this year.

Is it more likely that Mateo/Urias will outperform career norms? As opposed to say, Holliday/Mayo having extended adjustment periods if they break camp with the big club... Which tandem are likely to put up a higher WAR next season... Career norm Mateo/Urias? Or Rookie Holliday/Mayo.

And should they opt for 2B-SS-3B-Util combo of Holliday/Henderson/Mayo/Westburg.. (recognizing that Mayo would likely do a lot of DHing and OF spotting) an injury to any of Holliday/Henderson/Westburg becomes a little more significant.

I'd wager that they are going to stay with their historical tendency of conservative decision making and defensive emphasis, and hold onto Mateo as Util...

But the 1 year Burnes pressure may trigger something a little more bold. Should be interesting to see.

I don't think it means much for opening day. What matters is who is on the roster for the August-Sept push. I agree, this is really liftoff and they are going to play it aggressively.

 

[Orioles0615]

It means my punching bag Mateo stays, but I will take the trade off

[banks703]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think babks703 overrates Gunnar’s defense at SS at all.  He’s very good overall.  I certainly do agree that it’s possible Holliday can make a defensive jump and that long run our best overall alignment couid end up being Holliday at SS, Gunnar 3B, Westburg 2B.  But right now I think our best alignment (when those 3 are on the field) is Gunnar SS, Westburg 3B, Holliday 2B.  We’ll see plenty of mixing and matching this spring I’m sure, with Mateo, Urias, and Mayo all in the mix as well.  Should be a fun spring.  

If Holliday can improve enough to be a major league quality SS, even average defensively, it is only a good thing for the O’s. Again, I have serious doubts on this based on what I’ve seen over 30ish games but he is only 20 years old and he certainly can improve on the defensive side.

Gunnar is (in my opinion) the best SS in the system now with Joey’s departure. His improvement last year coupled with Jorge’s regression elevated him to the top for me. I just don’t see them moving the much much better defensive player to a less important infield position to make room for another guy. 

To me, the alignment questions come down to who is less of a defensive drop-off from Gunnar and I think that Mayo is the x-factor. If Mayo shows that he can be average or better at the hot corner it really puts them in a pickle (a good one of course) with the Mayo, Holliday, Gunnar and Westburg. I’ve posted about Westburg’s potential to be Ben Zobrist. I genuinely think that is their plan and why the seemed to prefer him over Ortiz (I’m speculating of course and I personally preferred Joey). If Mayo can stick at third it almost requires them to move Holliday to second and to keep Gunnar at SS. I believe that’s what all of this will boil down to in the end and I think Mayo’s physical skills for 3B are better suited than Holliday’s skills as a SS.

I think that’s how it plays out long term and we see Basallo and Kjerstad eventually force a Mountcastle move.

I posted about an infield potential of Mayo, Gunnar, Holliday and Basallo. They could have these four guys as soon as 2025 with four years (three really productive between them all together) that I think will rival that 2009 Yankees. I have comped Holliday to Robbie Cano many times. I think that’s who Holliday is and why it’s perfectly acceptable that he ends up at 2B. Altuve won an MVP as a 2B. Pedroia won an MVP as a 2B. Jeff Kent, Joe Morgan, etc. I think some folks feel that moving Holliday to 2B reduces his value or makes him less than, which isn’t completely true. Not when your team already has a stud ROY SS who is only two years older than Holliday.