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TT: Taking a look at the bullpen now that Hall is gone


Tony-OH

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5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, sometimes I just don’t trust these types of metrics.  Stuff is not the only element of pitching well. Wells has excellent control, good pace, and mixes his pitches well.  He’s proven over and over to be very effective when not dealing with fatigue issues.   

Also maybe the best mound presence on the team. Huge dude and looks like he wants to throw hands in the parking lot after the game. Of course off the field he's a very nice and affable young man. Lol. 

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7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

To me, sometimes I just don’t trust these types of metrics.  Stuff is not the only element of pitching well. Wells has excellent control, good pace, and mixes his pitches well.  He’s proven over and over to be very effective when not dealing with fatigue issues.   

That’s true and that’s why he still grades pretty well in Location+ and Pitching+ (and the equivalent PitchingBot grades). Stuff+ just grades the metrics without the command, but when you include command he’s still a good pitcher overall even with diminished stuff.

I like Wells a lot. I just don’t think Wells is going to be the borderline dominant RP that he was in 2021 without a significant bounceback in his stuff.

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I like Brasier because he has a dominant pitch. The cutter. I say ride the hot hand, or cutter, while it lasts. We don’t need it to last for 3-4 years. Just one season. Pay 6 million for that dominant pitch. He’s just murder on righties with a .440 OPS, and that includes his time with BOS. 

Relievers are volatile. He didn’t just compile a 3.50 ERA under typical reliever luck. There’s a reason to explain his dominance. Jump on it while it’s working. I like too that the people in this division haven’t seen this version of him. 

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2 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I have a feeling that McDermott will be our DL Hall replacement, just not until July or August at least. He’s the guy who will miss bats.

There is value to keeping McDermott, Povich, and Johnson, starting in AAA for as long as possible this season. It’s a shot at developing a SP out of the three and plus they get more AAA IP to learn how to get batters out.  More chances to develop secondary pitches. 

Also, we play a ton of high leverage innings. Not many opportunities just to flop a rookie SP into the MLB and a new role as a reliever. 

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23 hours ago, btdart20 said:

I’m nearly 100% with you.  I lean toward keeping Santander and trading Mountcastle though.

Mateo’s split vs LHP are better than Urias.  Career is close but trend is with Mateo.  Plus the speed and defense.  For those reasons, I can see Mateo as the bench guy.

Gotta think Mounty, Urias, and a 10-20 prospect can get an RP.

Why not trade O'Hearn?  O'Hearn is likely to have a good bit of regression this year, but trading him would clear up some DH/1B time for Kjerstad.  Would that make Cowser the 4th OF? 

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3 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Why not trade O'Hearn?  O'Hearn is likely to have a good bit of regression this year, but trading him would clear up some DH/1B time for Kjerstad.  Would that make Cowser the 4th OF? 

What would you be willing to give up for O'Hearn?

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5 hours ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Baumann I think has the pitches but his command is horrible. He leaves way too many fastballs and sliders in the middle to get hammered, and his curve is good but he can’t throw it for strikes or even consistently close enough to the strike zone to get chases. I think he generally needs command improvements across all 3 pitches, or at least WAY improved command (and through that more frequent usage) of the curve. 

Wells has the command but he needs the fastball velo back so he can get away with more fastballs that leak down out of the top of the zone where he wants to live with it. And I agree he needs to figure out something better with his offspeed to have a better go-to as a RP. Probably simplify his cutter/curve/slider options to narrow to one plus option against RH and use his change way more often, especially against LH. 

Im with you. Baumann's lack of command will eventually get him DFA'd this year. He's too good to make it through waivers but not good enough to stick all year

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1 minute ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Maybe someone gives up a Dominican lottery ticket if the O's pick up $1 mill of his salary. 

OHearn likely brings us more value than that. I’m all for clearly a couple of roster spots but I want to do it in a manner that it actually helps us. I don’t think trading OHearn for someone who has a chance to help us 5 years from now (or maybe in a trade at some point) helps us for 2024.

He is a low floor player for sure but his statcast numbers were very good last year. I think he can provide us reasonably good production for his relatively minimal cost.

That said, if he hits that low floor, I wouldn’t hesitate to DFA him.

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11 minutes ago, wse120372 said:

Im with you. Baumann's lack of command will eventually get him DFA'd this year. He's too good to make it through waivers but not good enough to stick all year

Baumann is one of those guys who has the stuff  where he could have a big year at any point.

Im certainly not ruling him out for the pen…I think we have too many guys who just aren’t that good out there or, at the very least, have been incredibly inconsistent and aren’t guys we should be surprised fall off a cliff.

And Baumann is the same..I wouldn’t be surprised if he is DFA’d at some point but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he had a 2.7 ERA, 70 inning season this year. That’s the nature of most relievers and he has the stuff to be very good.

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6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

OHearn likely brings us more value than that. I’m all for clearly a couple of roster spots but I want to do it in a manner that it actually helps us. I don’t think trading OHearn for someone who has a chance to help us 5 years from now (or maybe in a trade at some point) helps us for 2024.

He is a low floor player for sure but his statcast numbers were very good last year. I think he can provide us reasonably good production for his relatively minimal cost.

That said, if he hits that low floor, I wouldn’t hesitate to DFA him.

It's not about maximizing trade value for O'Hearn, but opening a spot for Kjerstad.  The O's can't keep everyone.  Trading Ortiz was a good start, but really need to trade 2 more veterans at least.  O'Hearn is much more likely to see his production decrease than Mountcastle.  Is it a good idea to keep Kjerstad in the minors because the O's have a veteran DH w/ a .700 OPS?

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7 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

It's not about maximizing trade value for O'Hearn, but opening a spot for Kjerstad.  The O's can't keep everyone.  Trading Ortiz was a good start, but really need to trade 2 more veterans at least.  O'Hearn is much more likely to see his production decrease than Mountcastle.  Is it a good idea to keep Kjerstad in the minors because the O's have a veteran DH w/ a .700 OPS?

Well a few things here…

1) I agree they need to trade vets…but trade the ones that actually bring back value and a player(s) we need right now.

2) If he is hovering around a 700 OPS, you DFA him.

3) A world exists where you have the following position players on the team..Adley, McCann, Mounty, OHearn, Westburg, Gunnar, Mateo, Urias, Mullins, Cowser, Kjerstad, Santander and Hays on the OD roster.  Now, it’s possibly Kjerstad and Cowser struggle to get enough at bats at times but that will be driven by performance.

I think these guys are your everyday players:  Adley, Westburg, Gunnar, Mullins and probably Santander and Hays.

I think Mounty and OHearn rotate depending on matchups at first.

That leaves Mateo at SS vs lefties and Urias at second or third against righties.

And one position open for Cowser or Kjerstad every day. It also means occasional days off for some of the other vet guys to find more at bats for them.

One of my hopes for this season is less DH time for Adley. 

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