Witt Extension; Adley Comparison

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s a first time for everything…

It isn't about Boras, it's about Gunnar.

[Too Tall]

Talk about extensions?  To me, it's like DoDo birds talking about tomorrow when Borass is the agent. On thing about being my age, I just get excited about this year - tomorrow even. Good luck with your hopes and wishes. We got two so far this year and I think that unto itself is amazing! I'm open to be further surprised but not expecting Borass to change his stripes unless Elias & Co. are prepared to do something really stupid, and I don't see that in their MO regardless of who owns the team.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Too Tall said:

Talk about extensions?  To me, it's like DoDo birds talking about tomorrow when Borass is the agent. On thing about being my age, I just get excited about this year - tomorrow even. Good luck with your hopes and wishes. We got two so far this year and I think that unto itself is amazing! I'm open to be further surprised but not expecting Borass to change his stripes unless Elias & Co. are prepared to do something really stupid, and I don't see that in their MO regardless of who owns the team.

It's not up to Boras!

The player makes the decision.

I freely admit that a lot of guys pick Boras for reasons that make them very hard to extend but he isn't the boss in the situation, he's the employee.

 

[ThisIsBirdland]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Let’s just talk about the first 7 years…how much more can Gunnar realistically ask for..remember, one of those years for Gunnar is a pre arb year and one of them for Witt is a FA year.  If we gave Gunnar 7/120 vs Witt getting 7/141, it’s actually in favor of Gunnar because of that simple fact. That’s like a 35ishM difference, not 20. Gunnar could make more than 120M the next 7 years but it’s not likely he will. To do better than that, everything has to go right..health, performance, etc…

The first 7 years are only part of the story. If anything goes wrong at all, the team is on the hook for an additional $140m over 4 years. I don’t think that’s likely to happen with Gunnar but you never know, and that’s transferring a massive amount of risk to the team.

If the player stays healthy and performs, it’s fine for both sides. If anything derails the player’s career, it’s a pretty massive hit to withstand. Give me the team options like the Mariners have with the Julio deal if the player is earning that protection.

Edited February 5 by ThisIsBirdland

[Sports Guy]

11 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

The first 7 years are only part of the story. If anything goes wrong at all, the team is on the hook for an additional $140m over 4 years. I don’t think that’s likely to happen with Gunnar but you never know, and that’s transferring a massive amount of risk to the team.

If the player stays healthy and performs, it’s fine for both sides. If anything derails the player’s career, it’s a pretty massive hit to withstand. Give me the team options like the Mariners have with the Julio deal if the player is earning that protection.

 No, if anything goes wrong, they are on the hook for first 35M and then you see every year after that.  He could go Cody Bellinger for a few years and then have a great year and opt out.  

[Safelykept]

11 minutes ago, ThisIsBirdland said:

The first 7 years are only part of the story. If anything goes wrong at all, the team is on the hook for an additional $140m over 4 years. I don’t think that’s likely to happen with Gunnar but you never know, and that’s transferring a massive amount of risk to the team.

If the player stays healthy and performs, it’s fine for both sides. If anything derails the player’s career, it’s a pretty massive hit to withstand. Give me the team options like the Mariners have with the Julio deal if the player is earning that protection.

Well the thread is Witt vs Adley(11 year Ext.)No I would not do that. 7 years 8 at the most having confidence that the FO would manage him correctly (Much like last year 105 games started at catcher 45 at Dh, appeared in another 5 off the bench.) that's going to require a commitment to a quality backup catcher ( at least Mcann or his equal)

[ThisIsBirdland]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 No, if anything goes wrong, they are on the hook for first 35M and then you see every year after that.  He could go Cody Bellinger for a few years and then have a great year and opt out.  

If he incurs a significant, performance impacting injury, how is the team not on the hook for all 4 years if he never comes back? What stops him from opting in every one of those 4 years with an injury or with diminished performance nowhere near the $35m value?

Not that I think it would ever realistically be a comparable case but Chris Davis would be opting in every year right now if he had player options on the back end of his deal, and anything is possible in sports. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, ThisIsBirdland said:

If he incurs a significant, performance impacting injury, how is the team not on the hook for all 4 years if he never comes back? What stops him from opting in every one of those 4 years with an injury or with diminished performance nowhere near the $35m value?

Not that I think it would ever realistically be a comparable case but Chris Davis would be opting in every year right now if he had player options on the back end of his deal, and anything is possible in sports. 

Well if it’s something career ending or something like that, sure they are screwed..that’s no different than any long term deal thought.  I mean you describing a risk you have with a guaranteed contract or not.

[ThisIsBirdland]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Well if it’s something career ending or something like that, sure they are screwed..that’s no different than any long term deal thought.  I mean you describing a risk you have with a guaranteed contract or not.

But in that sense the 4 player option years are guaranteed then. You were implying only the first 7 years mattered.

I would try to negotiate a robust team option that would supersede those 4 player options is all I’m arguing. The Witt deal places too much risk balance on the team IMO.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Too Tall said:

Talk about extensions?  To me, it's like DoDo birds talking about tomorrow when Borass is the agent. 

That line is hilarious. 

[TommyPickles]

I disliked the Royals ever since the 2014 season, but they're having a fun offseason. I'm cheering for em' to win the Central now.

[Can_of_corn]

 

[RZNJ]

On one hand, Witt is guaranteed 148M, including buying out 3 FA years for 100M which should be still prime years.  Sounds good so far as long as he continues on his current path.   He’ll be about 30 when he decides on the first player option.   If he’s still really good, he’ll probably opt out and go for another longer term deal as there’s no guarantee that KC will pick up the 3y team option even if exercises all 4 options.

The problem is that if he exercises the player options.  That would probably signify that his market value has slipped and his performance as well.

So, this is a good deal for KC in some regards but there is definitely some downside here.  Another question would be what will 35M per year buy you on the FA market in 2028 when he would have been able to become a FA?

 

[OriolesMagic83]

11 hours ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

To repeat my thoughts on this topic that I posted in the MLB news thread...

 

That's my feelings on extending Adley. He'd be my top choice for a big extension if he shows improvement in a couple of those areas, and if Hyde is able to manage him properly to give him proper rest days and preserve his stamina + reduce injury risks. This would mean the backup catchers have to perform.

I think Adley might be the star who will extend also.  I almost feel like the O's missed their best chance to extend Gunnar.  Boras is going to be in his ear, saying you're a once in a generation player.  You need to push,the market for the players coming behind you.  For Holliday, this is the year the O's should try to extend him.

[Just Regular]

BP Ginny Searle's day after reaction.

Last season, Witt produced 5.4 WARP, about 55% of the total value created by the rest of his teammates on offense. It was a virtuoso sophomore campaign, out-producing Juan Soto, José Ramírez, and all but four other batters throughout the rest of the league. One of those four, incidentally, just signed a $700 million* contract. Another is on a $365 million contract that’s a bit under-valued but did hold the record for most new money of any deal until the signer’s new teammate shattered it in December. A third is on an eight-year, $100 million that will end up at 10/$124 million and which is routinely included among the league’s most team-friendly extensions of recent decades. And there’s Adley Rutschman. Evaluating this signing on this scale reserved for the game’s absolute best, this deal is nearer to the Mookie Betts range than Ronald Acuna Jr.’s dreadful deal. The Royals are getting a bargain, but that’s par for the course with increasingly requisite pre-arb extensions. At least here Witt made sure the option structure worked in his favor.