Witt Extension; Adley Comparison

[Bahama O's Fan]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/royals-bobby-witt-jr-agree-to-11-year-extension.html

Do you sign Adley to something similar? Is it too long?

[Frobby]

Just now, Bahama O's Fan said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/royals-bobby-witt-jr-agree-to-11-year-extension.html

Do you sign Adley to something similar? Is it too long?

Adley’s older.  Gunnar’s the better comparison.  

[Spy Fox]

I posted this in the MLB Moves thread, but yes it's too long for Adley. Not ready to sign up for him until age 36-- especially not with a six years younger Basallo potentially waiting in the wings. 

But this is an important comp for a Gunnar extension, if it were to happen. 

[Sports Guy]

The Royals just gave a player almost 300M…don’t tell me you can’t do the same. 

[TonySoprano]

Those big market Royals.  Ticket prices are going to go up through the roof.  Right, Fredo?

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Royals just gave a player almost 300M…don’t tell me you can’t do the same. 

And they are coming off a 56-106 season. 

[foxfield]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The Royals just gave a player almost 300M…don’t tell me you can’t do the same. 

I’m pretty sure they said they were waiting for you to buy season tickets. 

[Sports Guy]

Witt has 4 years left of service time, including this season.

So, if everything goes right he would get something in the area of 50M the next 4 years.

That leaves a guarantee of 7/238 (roughly) on the table. That is 34M a year. This is not really a bargain. They paid all the money for this deal although if things go as they are, he could be a 45-50M a year guy.

Still, this is one of those extensions where there is a ton of risk for the team and very little for the player.

[Hallas]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Witt has 4 years left of service time, including this season.

So, if everything goes right he would get something in the area of 50M the next 4 years.

That leaves a guarantee of 7/238 (roughly) on the table. That is 34M a year. This is not really a bargain. They paid all the money for this deal although if things go as they are, he could be a 45-50M a year guy.

Still, this is one of those extensions where there is a ton of risk for the team and very little for the player.

The owners have done a pretty good job of suppressing MLB salary inflation over the past 5 or 10 years (though the COVID-related revenue drop I'm sure had something to do with that.)  That said I don't think it's a guarantee that will continue.  If the FA cost per win starts creeping up toward 12 or 13 million per win (certainly not out of the question - inflation is affecting everything else) then this could be a pretty favorable deal.  I tend to agree that this is pretty player-favored though.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

The owners have done a pretty good job of suppressing MLB salary inflation over the past 5 or 10 years (though the COVID-related revenue drop I'm sure had something to do with that.)  That said I don't think it's a guarantee that will continue.  If the FA cost per win starts creeping up toward 12 or 13 million per win (certainly not out of the question - inflation is affecting everything else) then this could be a pretty favorable deal.  I tend to agree that this is pretty player-favored though.

I do agree that it could be “team friendly”.  In 4 years, could be more in line to get 10/400?  Yes that is possible depending on how he plays and his health.

But overall, there is a ton of risk on the team here.

 

[baltfan]

18 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/royals-bobby-witt-jr-agree-to-11-year-extension.html

Do you sign Adley to something similar? Is it too long?

Tough to justify that level of extension with a catcher.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

The Royals just gave a player almost 300M…don’t tell me you can’t do the same. 

I’m mulling it over, but my initial reaction is the Royals just did something pretty stupid.  So, I wouldn’t necessarily want to do the same.   

I like Witt a lot, and he’s a player worth extending.  But let’s look at this.  He was due less than $1 mm this year.  Assume his Arb years would have gone $7.5/15/22.5 mm, which is pretty aggressive.  That’s $46 mm for his control years, so the Royals are paying him something like 7/$242 mm for the FA years.   That’s a huge guarantee (just shy of $35 mm/yr), and it isn’t reciprocal, as Witt has FOUR chances to opt out.  So all the risk is on the Royals and they’ll receive little surplus value if Witt outperforms his hefty deal.  

All the details aren’t out yet, so I haven’t completely made up my mind, but my initial reaction is that the Royals are likely to regret this deal.  

 

[Billy F-Face3]

To repeat my thoughts on this topic that I posted in the MLB news thread...

6 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Considering the position Adley plays and it's importance, as well as the fact I have been waiting decades for us to find a top franchise catcher, Adley is the player I would have wanted to extend the most. But I saw some things last season that made me reflect on the career of Matt Weiters and how fast the trajectory of Weiters career change, and it gave me pause.  I'd like to see Adley's pitch selection with some pitchers get better, and I'd like to see him hold runners and throw out more runners attempting to steal (as well as stay healthy) before I feel comfortable dishing out an 11 year deal with that type of investment.

But if a couple of those parameters show improvement, I would most definitely have Adley as my top priority for an extension. Great all-around catchers are difficult to come by. I've seen people here compare the idea of extending him to the career of Joe Mauer, and I think that's a good case study to use.

 

That's my feelings on extending Adley. He'd be my top choice for a big extension if he shows improvement in a couple of those areas, and if Hyde is able to manage him properly to give him proper rest days and preserve his stamina + reduce injury risks. This would mean the backup catchers have to perform.

[ThisIsBirdland]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m mulling it over, but my initial reaction is the Royals just did something pretty stupid.  So, I wouldn’t necessarily want to do the same.   

I like Witt a lot, and he’s a player worth extending.  But let’s look at this.  He was due less than $1 mm this year.  Assume his Arb years would have gone $7.5/15/22.5 mm, which is pretty aggressive.  That’s $46 mm for his control years, so the Royals are paying him something like 7/$242 mm for the FA years.   That’s a huge guarantee (just shy of $35 mm/yr), and it isn’t reciprocal, as Witt has FOUR chances to opt out.  So all the risk is on the Royals and they’ll receive little surplus value if Witt outperforms his hefty deal.  

All the details aren’t out yet, so I haven’t completely made up my mind, but my initial reaction is that the Royals are likely to regret this deal.  

 

Worst part about it is if they just set a precedent for our long-term guys that we'll be unable or unwilling to match.

[interloper]

Yeah Witt would have to really go nuts to outperform this deal. I'm not sure he's that kind of player.