Is Austin Hays Just an OF Version of Jorge Mateo?

[wildbillhiccup]

Just now, Billy F-Face3 said:

Austin Hays is an All Star. Mateo is not.

Hays is one of the best defensive left fielders in baseball. He also happens to be a good hitter.

There's absolutely nothing in his profile that supports this claim. Austin Hays is a mediocre and/or below average is just about every single hitting category. 

[Sanity Check]

Just now, Sanity Check said:

Sadly, many on here will give up on them until they turn it around.  It's what Hangouters tend to do.

PS - And I love Cowser and want to see him to well in Baltimore.   But that doesn't make Hays and Mateo the same player, which is what I think you were getting at in the opening post.

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

Sadly, many on here will give up on them until they turn it around.  It's what Hangouters tend to do.

No doubt and I realize that managing a contending team and also giving younger players enough MLB ABs to develop is a balancing act, but I think what I'm struggling with is why we aren't willing to give Cowser, a player who has considerably more upside than someone like Hays, a longer leash when the bar he has to meet is so extremely low? Imagine the vote of confidence it would give him if Elias named him the OD starter in LF? 

[Sports Guy]

I’m happy Hays is here. I think he fits a profile the team needs because of the LH hitters in the OF.

However, I think Cowser and Kjerstad should play more than him. 

I think Hays getting 400 or so at bats a year is his best role.  

He either misses a lot of time due to injury or plays large chunks of the season hurt and is awful for long stretches because of it. 

Play him less and maybe the injuries become less of an issue.

That said, he will start everyday for a while and it will be up to him to hit and if he doesn’t, I think that’s when you find him losing time.

[Moose Milligan]

Hays isn't great, but he's a far cry from being an outfield version of Mateo.  

Are they both frustrating to watch?  At times, absolutely.  Are they both capable of going on incredible heaters that make you think they could have turned a corner and reached another level as an overall player?  Certainly.

That's where any comparison begins and ends for me.

[wildbillhiccup]

5 minutes ago, Sanity Check said:

PS - And I love Cowser and want to see him to well in Baltimore.   But that doesn't make Hays and Mateo the same player, which is what I think you were getting at in the opening post.

The title was admittedly an attention grabber (and I'm paying the price for it now), but the post was intended to be more about rethinking Hays versus Cowser in 2024. 

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

There's absolutely nothing in his profile that supports this claim. Austin Hays is a mediocre and/or below average is just about every single hitting category. 

How so? His OPS has been above average each of the past three seasons. And if you want to compare to him to other LF who played a lot, he performs around the average of that group. Among 19 qualified LFers last year he was: 

• 4th in AVG
• 7th in wRC+
• 8th in fWAR
• 9th in runs
• 10th in OPS
• 10th in wOBA
• 12th in HRs
• 13th in RBIs

Put that together and it seems like the resume of an ~average hitting everyday LFer.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I’m happy Hays is here. I think he fits a profile the team needs because of the LH hitters in the OF.

However, I think Cowser and Kjerstad should play more than him. 

I think Hays getting 400 or so at bats a year is his best role.  

He either misses a lot of time due to injury or plays large chunks of the season hurt and is awful for long stretches because of it. 

Play him less and maybe the injuries become less of an issue.

That said, he will start everyday for a while and it will be up to him to hit and if he doesn’t, I think that’s when you find him losing time.

The problem is I think the only way Hays gets less than 500 ABs this season is if he misses time. Maybe that will work itself out over the season, but I'm also a firm believer in giving younger players longer looks so they can get comfortable. Now obviously if Cowser were to struggle as much as he did last season I'd expect they'd have to re-evaluate that idea, but I just don't see a path for him to get that kind of look with Hays in front of him. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

How so? His OPS has been above average each of the past three seasons. And if you want to compare to him to other LF who played a lot, he performs around the average of that group. Among 19 qualified LFers last year he was: 

• 4th in AVG
• 7th in wRC+
• 8th in fWAR
• 9th in runs
• 10th in OPS
• 10th in wOBA
• 12th in HRs
• 13th in RBIs

Put that together and it seems like the resume of an ~average hitting everyday LFer.

You realize that mediocre and average are synonyms right? 

[spleen1015]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The title was admittedly an attention grabber (and I'm paying the price for it now), but the post was intended to be more about rethinking Hays versus Cowser in 2024. 

I wanted Cowser brought up and to get all of those ABs when Mullins went down last year. I hated the Hicks signing. It didn't turn out to be that bad, but I still wish Cowser would have gotten most of those ABs. If he had, I think we would be saying he should be in LF instead of Hays.

[wildbillhiccup]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Hays isn't great, but he's a far cry from being an outfield version of Mateo.  

Are they both frustrating to watch?  At times, absolutely.  Are they both capable of going on incredible heaters that make you think they could have turned a corner and reached another level as an overall player?  Certainly.

That's where any comparison begins and ends for me.

So why wouldn't we consider giving a longer look to someone like Cowser instead; a player who has the potential to be great? A guy who posted OBPs of .490, .469, and .417 in each of his minor league seasons. For context, Hays' career OBP is .314. 

[wildbillhiccup]

3 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

I wanted Cowser brought up and to get all of those ABs when Mullins went down last year. I hated the Hicks signing. It didn't turn out to be that bad, but I still wish Cowser would have gotten most of those ABs. If he had, I think we would be saying he should be in LF instead of Hays.

I did as well and I get that they were probably reluctant to turn the reigns over to a rookie when they were contending, but I definitely think that it probably hurt Cowser's development. That's part of the reason I'd like to see them hit the reset button and give him a longer look at the start of this season. 

[Moose Milligan]

9 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So why wouldn't we consider giving a longer look to someone like Cowser instead; a player who has the potential to be great? A guy who posted OBPs of .490, .469, and .417 in each of his minor league seasons. For context, Hays' career OBP is .314. 

Beats the hell out of me, I've been wanting to move on from Hays for awhile now.

[wildbillhiccup]

7 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So why wouldn't we consider giving a longer look to someone like Cowser instead; a player who has the potential to be great? A guy who posted OBPs of .490, .469, and .417 in each of his minor league seasons. For context, Hays' career OBP is .314. 

As you all mull over Hays versus Cowser keep in mind that the only player on the Orioles' roster to have an OBP over .350 this season (by Steamer) is Rutchsman. Holliday (if he makes the team), Henderson, and Cowser are all expected to be decent in OBP, but everyone else on the team is projected to be basically league average or below. To put things in context the MLB league average OBP was .320 in 2023 and the league leaders in that category were close to or over .400. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Beats the hell out of me, I've been wanting to move on from Hays for awhile now.