Is Austin Hays Just an OF Version of Jorge Mateo?

[wildbillhiccup]

46 minutes ago, TheWall said:

Needless hyperbole is fun I guess? Hays was great in the first half last year. He was a very deserving All Star isn't even close to the worst Oriole that has made that team in the last decade. 

If you actually read the article he 100% deserves to be mentioned in the same breath with those names. My bigger picture point was that using "he made the All-Star team" as an argument that a player is actually good is pretty damn silly. 

[foxfield]

Bigger point? As if they are related?  The two points are not even closely related. Any he was an all star IS a weak argument that a player is good… But it’s about as weak as Hays is one of the worst All Stars ever. 

[TommyPickles]

Psst. Urias has a higher WAR over the last two years than either of them.

But in all seriousness, I think Hays is much better than Mateo. Just a much better hitter. 

[52520Andrew]

Hays has a better bat but isn't as good defensively, though still underrated in my opinion. More well rounded player than Mateo. OPS+ for Hays was 105 in 2022 and 114 in 2023 so he held his own offensively.

Hays and Mullins are the only guys above Cowser for me on the depth chart. I feel like they can fit Cowser into the lineup to give him enough at bats to be happy. If Hays or Mullins go down to injury which is a decent possibility, then Cowser is playing every day. I think he will be given spring training to show he is ready and maybe we see him cycling with Hays more this year to keep Hays healthy as he has traditionally gotten run down towards the end of the season.

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, jamalshw said:

I do think Hays eventually loses ABs to Kjerstad and/or Cowser. And he's been a much better first half player than second half player in his career and that was exaggerated last year when he was an All-Star but had a .667 OPS in the second half after a .853 OPS in the first half. 

All that said, Hays is an everyday player while Mateo is not. But both could/should have a place on this roster if nothing else because they're right-handed and can hit lefties. This team is heavily left-handed by design given the wall, but that makes the Orioles susceptible to lefties and while we do have switch hitters in Adley and Santander and we do have guys that hit from the left side and need to be in the lineup regardless of who is on the mound, i do worry we are getting a bit too lefthanded. 

Right now, Hays, Mountcastle and Westburg are the guys we expect in the everyday lineup that hit from the right-side. If we pull Hays out in favor of Cowser, that makes it 2 RHH and two switch hitters to go with 5 exclusively from the left side. 

All that said, I do expect Hays to lose some ABs and am fine with him getting closer to 400 ABs compared to the 500 (or close) he's had the last 3 years. Those extra 100-150 plate appearances can go to Cowser or Kjerstad and that may help prevent or minimize his last season swoon. Hays to me, though, is still more than a bench player or a weak side platoon player. 

I think in the end, between a bit more time off for Hays, the unavoidable injuries that will undoubtedly hit, and the likely regression from O'Hearns. I expect we will be able to find enough ABs for Cowser and Kjerstad this year. And perhaps the duo (alongside the right-handed hitting Mayo) replace Santander, Hays and O'Hearn before this time next year.

Best post in the thread because it deals with the facts:

Hays OPS

2022 1st half : 779     2nd half:  626

2023 1st half: 853*     2nd half   667

*All-Star

Hays plays so hard diving all over the place that he gets hurt.  When he is hurt he belongs on the IL.   But he wants to play through injuries.   Maybe in 2024 with Cowser available Hyde will actually put Hays on the IL when he is injured.

Cowser can also play RF and we will see in ST if he can play CF with competition from McKenna, Hilliard and Mateo as a backup to Mullins in CF.

Edited February 6 by wildcard

[52520Andrew]

59 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Cowser can also play RF and we will see in ST if he can play CF with competition from McKenna, Hilliard and Mateo as a backup to Mullins in CF.

I was thinking about Cowser in RF as well but the problem is that we may have a bit of a bottleneck between RF/1B/DH with Santander and Kjerstad going for that position along with 1B and DH having Mountcastle, O'Hearn, Adley on his off days, Mayo potentially later in the year, and keeping Gunnar's bat in the lineup when he isn't playing the field.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Best post in the thread because it deals with the facts:

Hays OPS

2022 1st half : 779     2nd half:  626

2023 1st half: 853*     2nd half   667

*All-Star

Hays plays so hard diving all over the place that he gets hurt.  When he is hurt he belongs on the IL.   But he wants to play through injuries.   Maybe in 2024 with Cowser available Hyde will actually put Hays on the IL when he is injured.

Cowser can also play RF and we will see in ST if he can play CF with competition from McKenna, Hilliard and Mateo as a backup to Mullins in CF.

So your excuse for why Hays is only an above average player for three months of the season each year is because he's secretly playing through injuries in the second half EVERY season? I would advise against jumping up and down on that big thin limb that you're standing on. 

[MijiT88]

5 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

The problem is I think the only way Hays gets less than 500 ABs this season is if he misses time. Maybe that will work itself out over the season, but I'm also a firm believer in giving younger players longer looks so they can get comfortable. Now obviously if Cowser were to struggle as much as he did last season I'd expect they'd have to re-evaluate that idea, but I just don't see a path for him to get that kind of look with Hays in front of him. 

I know we have Tony Taters in RF but I would think that RF is much more of a valid spot to get the young guys at bats rather than taking them away from a player who made the all star game last season... yes he slowed down but he still was a great player for us last season.

[Billy F-Face3]

5 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

The two biggest orange kool aid drinkers coming together like Voltron! 

Like you and @wildbillhiccup aren't?

I have watched nearly every game in 2023. Hays was the difference between winning and losing in a number of those games. Especially with his glove.  And we have a bunch of fly ball pitchers (Hello Tyler Wells) so good outfielders are absolutely essential.

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

Best post in the thread because it deals with the facts:

Hays OPS

2022 1st half : 779     2nd half:  626

2023 1st half: 853*     2nd half   667

*All-Star

2021: .736 1st half, .796 2nd half.  Oops, there goes that theory!

I always find if absurd that people will look at something that happened two times in a row and think that’s some kind of immutable pattern that will continue into infinity. 

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Hays is talented in that he is a pro athlete and is one of the top 100 or so OFers in the entire world.  But his hitting profile is mediocre and his defense is good but overrated…and he’s oft injured.  He doesn’t have a lot of power, isn’t a great average guy and isn’t great at getting on base.  Injuries and age have also taken something out of him.

He’s the type of guy that does a lot of things well but nothing great. Cowser clearly has more upside. That’s not even debatable.

Now, Cowser may bust..that’s possible but he’s definitely the better talent right now.

I know you are a Hays apologist and Homer but no one can rationally believe any differently at this point in their career.

And I hope it sorts itself out…in that I hope real chances are given. 

Let’s understand something: I want Cowser to turn out to be better than Hays has been.  That helps the Orioles, and I’m all for it.  I hope Kjerstad is better than Santander.  I hope Mayo is better than whoever he replaced.  

But saying Cowser has more “upside” than Hays just means that Hays is a known quantity and we don’t know what Cowser is yet.  He could be better, he could be worse.   And while I hope he’ll be better, the odds are probably greater than 50% that he’ll be worse, at least this year.  So Cowser will have to prove he can beat those odds.  

Do I think Cowser likely won’t be as good as Hays because I’m some sort of Hays apologist?  No, I’m looking at objective third party projections.   They all favor Hays over Cowser by a significant margin.  That doesn’t mean it’s set in stone, but it means you don’t just hand Cowser a job.

 

[Sports Guy]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s understand something: I want Cowser to turn out to be better than Hays has been.  That helps the Orioles, and I’m all for it.  I hope Kjerstad is better than Santander.  I hope Mayo is better than whoever he replaced.  

But saying Cowser has more “upside” than Hays just means that Hays is a known quantity and we don’t know what Cowser is yet.  He could be better, he could be worse.   And while I hope he’ll be better, the odds are probably greater than 50% that he’ll be worse, at least this year.  So Cowser will have to prove he can beat those odds.  

Do I think Cowser likely won’t be as good as Hays because I’m some sort of Hays apologist?  No, I’m looking at objective third party projections.   They all favor Hays over Cowser by a significant margin.  That doesn’t mean it’s set in stone, but it means you don’t just hand Cowser a job.

 

Until he gives you a reason not to, you should be handing him/planning on him getting 400ish at bats…and then go from there depending on what he does.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So your excuse for why Hays is only an above average player for three months of the season each year is because he's secretly playing through injuries in the second half EVERY season? I would advise against jumping up and down on that big thin limb that you're standing on. 

I don't think its a secret that Hays gets hurt and still wants to play.

Edited February 6 by wildcard

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

2021: .736 1st half, .796 2nd half.  Oops, there goes that theory!

I always find if absurd that people will look at something that happened two times in a row and think that’s some kind of immutable pattern that will continue into infinity. 

In 2021 Hays was injured in the first half.   Hamstring injury on May 23rd.  Went on the IL until June 11th.   When he came back he went 0-10 until June 17th.

Its was actually good that Hyde put him on the IL.  He was rested for 18 days that may have set him up for a good 2nd half.

Edited February 6 by wildcard

[PsychoBird68]

OPS+100 is average... Mateo and Hays are not comparable....SMH  Hayes is above average with the glove and the bat... #'s don't lie... Cowser's problem is he has looked lost in the outfield and we have Santandar and Kjerstad for RF/DH and other to rotate thru the DH, also Hays is our only right handed everyday caliber outfielder on the roster.... Cowser needs to prove he can handle CF/LF because he needs to beat out McKenna who I believe is out of options...I still think we may see a trade to thin our surplus of outfielders that hit from the left side