How’s the East look now?

[Pickles]

5 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think you are missing a key point point and that’s that the track record has to be recent, say the last 2-3 years and even with that, are there signs of decline within those numbers?

I understand that well.

It's still flawed and imperfect.

Take a guy like Rizzo for example

PECOTA has him at 525 PAs and a 1.4 WAR.

Last year he was at 420 PAs and 0.5 WAR, and sinking like a stone as the season progressed.

A lot of that projection is based on looking backwards to what Rizzo WAS.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand that well.

It's still flawed and imperfect.

Take a guy like Rizzo for example

PECOTA has him at 525 PAs and a 1.4 WAR.

Last year he was at 420 PAs and 0.5 WAR, and sinking like a stone as the season progressed.

A lot of that projection is based on looking backwards to what Rizzo WAS.

He had a terrible year no doubt..but his 2022 was very solid, including his statcast numbers. I don’t think it’s absurd to think he could have a bounce back, especially considering this:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38335131/yankees-anthony-rizzo-shut-season-post-concussion-syndrome

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

He had a terrible year no doubt..but his 2022 was very solid, including his statcast numbers. I don’t think it’s absurd to think he could have a bounce back, especially considering this:

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/38335131/yankees-anthony-rizzo-shut-season-post-concussion-syndrome

He might.  None of the individual projections are going to be outrageous on their own.

It's a cumulative effect though.  Old Yankees are going to regularly be projected to be better than they likely are, and young Orioles are going to be projected to be worse than they likely are.

That's how you end up with the Yankees being projected to win the division by 7 games, when few human minds, working in intuitive ways that are unavailable to a mathematical algorithm, would make such a projection.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I understand that well.

It's still flawed and imperfect.

Take a guy like Rizzo for example

PECOTA has him at 525 PAs and a 1.4 WAR.

Last year he was at 420 PAs and 0.5 WAR, and sinking like a stone as the season progressed.

A lot of that projection is based on looking backwards to what Rizzo WAS.

Rizzo missed the final 55 games last year with a concussion.  So, good chance he gets more PA this year than last year.  He was worth 2.3 rWAR in 2022, then 0.5 in 2023.  So, 1.4 doesn’t strike me as crazy.  Not saying that’s exactly where I’d land if I put my finger to the wind, but it’s not far off.  

[dystopia]

1 hour ago, Il BuonO said:

Don’t know what you’re looking at in the link I posted, but it isn’t exclusive to “game” lines. 
 

And taken from what you posted….

“During the off-season, futures odds may change with free agent acquisitions as well. The odds changing for one team often lead to the odds changing for other competing teams. Futures odds at sports books tend to be based on the chance that something will happen.”

 That’s literally the definition of probability.

The Talkin' Baseball guys (who are Yankee fans) even said the odds were likely due to Yankee fans

 

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Rizzo missed the final 55 games last year with a concussion.  So, good chance he gets more PA this year than last year.  He was worth 2.3 rWAR in 2022, then 0.5 in 2023.  So, 1.4 doesn’t strike me as crazy.  Not saying that’s exactly where I’d land if I put my finger to the wind, but it’s not far off.  

As I stated to SG, none of the individual projections are going to seem crazy.  It's the cumulative effect.

[dystopia]

28 minutes ago, Pickles said:

I didn't mean you personally; I meant the royal you.

Likewise, I never gamble.  I'm too cheap.

My point is though that the "flaw" of the system is pretty easy to spot in regards to this particular projection.

People will bend over backwards to defend garbage "projections" and analysis on here. It's pathetic. 

Can't wait until PECOTA, ZiPS, and similar junk is given zero bandwidth and attention and it fades into the obscurity it deserves. 

[Pickles]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

People will bend over backwards to defend garbage "projections" and analysis on here. It's pathetic. 

Can't wait until PECOTA, ZiPS, and similar junk is given zero bandwidth and attention and it fades into the obscurity it deserves. 

I don't think anybody is "defending" PECOTA.  I think most people would take the over on 87 wins, and most people do not project the Yankees to finish 7 games ahead of the Orioles.

I agree with you that the projections are "biased" but that's not the right word to use and doesn't explain what the issue is.

The projections even with their flaws are not useless.

If people were on here trying to claim these things are biblical truth, or scientifically formulated, I could see the push back.  Everybody understands they have their shortcomings; the disagreement is just about how flawed are they.

[Frobby]

16 minutes ago, Pickles said:

 

It's a cumulative effect though.  Old Yankees are going to regularly be projected to be better than they likely are, and young Orioles are going to be projected to be worse than they likely are.

You are saying these systems don’t factor in age or trend line, but they do.  If you think they systematically favor older players, show us some real evidence of that, not some one-off projection of one player or one team in one year.  

[Pickles]

Just now, Frobby said:

You are saying these systems don’t factor in age or trend line, but they do.  If you think they systematically favor older players, show us some real evidence of that, not some one-off projection of one player or one team in one year.  

No, I'm saying they don't do it well enough.  So let's not argue strawmen.

And no, I don't have time nor inclination to do a league-wide study on the issue.  I've given one example which demonstrates my thesis.  How many examples would you like?

Edited February 7 by Pickles

[Frobby]

Just now, Pickles said:

No, I'm saying they don't do it well enough.

I’m sure they do it far more systematically than you or I could.  Baseball has a lot of variation.  It’s very difficult to predict how a season will go.  

[Pickles]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m sure they do it far more systematically than you or I could.  Baseball has a lot of variation.  It’s very difficult to predict how a season will go.  

Systemic approaches have value; they also have weaknesses.

This is one of the instances where a weakness becomes apparent.

[Sports Guy]

35 minutes ago, Pickles said:

He might.  None of the individual projections are going to be outrageous on their own.

It's a cumulative effect though.  Old Yankees are going to regularly be projected to be better than they likely are, and young Orioles are going to be projected to be worse than they likely are.

That's how you end up with the Yankees being projected to win the division by 7 games, when few human minds, working in intuitive ways that are unavailable to a mathematical algorithm, would make such a projection.

Old Yankees who have continued to be good and good for a long stretch will absolutely still be shown to be good in projections.

Why is that an issue?  If this algorithm all of a sudden said Burnes was going to be Gibson and they ignore his recent performances, wouldn’t that bother you?

Of course success is going to be looked up favorably in a projection system. Do you think that system should say Bryan Baker is going to be a sub 2 ERA pitcher this year, when there is very little in his profile that suggests he will do that?

[Pickles]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Old Yankees who have continued to be good and good for a long stretch will absolutely still be shown to be good in projections.

Why is that an issue?  If this algorithm all of a sudden said Burnes was going to be Gibson and they ignore his recent performances, wouldn’t that bother you?

Of course success is going to be looked up favorably in a projection system. Do you think that system should say Bryan Baker is going to be a sub 2 ERA pitcher this year, when there is very little in his profile that suggests he will do that?

No, I think the algorithm is at its worst when projecting young players and old players.  

Stop with all the absurd strawmen and respond to the things I'm actually saying.

We don't need all your hypotheticals.  Do you take the under on the O's at 87 wins?  And do you think the Yankees will finish 7 games ahead of the O's this year?

If you answer no to either one, then you agree with me and agree the projections are flawed.

[Just Regular]

Who are the three best ballplayers on the Orioles + Yankees today?