How’s the East look now?

[BRobinsonfan]

22 minutes ago, dystopia said:

PECOTA eats Yankee polyps for breakfast. 

You Sir, win the internet for today.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

Fangraphs’ Depth Charts are going to end up projecting the Orioles similar to PECOTA, in the mid-80s. If PECOTA is similar to Fangraphs, the reason is pretty modest projections for Bradish and Grayson (relative to everyone’s expectations based on their second half performances), and a pretty poor one for Means, then across the board terrible projections for the bullpen. 

Fangraphs currently projects the Orioles’ bullpen to be worth 1.4 WAR total. Last year they were 7.5 WAR. Bautista was 2.8 WAR of that of course, but Kimbrel, Cano and Coulombe were 1.1, 1.7 and 1.4 each, respectively. With even a middle of the pack 3.5 WAR projection for the bullpen as a whole that would put the Orioles in the high-80s/maybe 90 wins, with upside for much more from their rotation. 

I’m sure the Orioles and everyone else expect their bullpen to be a lot better than what it’s projected to be. 

[dystopia]

9 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fangraphs’ Depth Charts are going to end up projecting the Orioles similar to PECOTA, in the mid-80s. If PECOTA is similar to Fangraphs, the reason is pretty modest projections for Bradish and Grayson (relative to everyone’s expectations based on their second half performances), and a pretty poor one for Means, then across the board terrible projections for the bullpen. 

Fangraphs currently projects the Orioles’ bullpen to be worth 1.4 WAR total. Last year they were 7.5 WAR. Bautista was 2.8 WAR of that of course, but Kimbrel, Cano and Coulombe were 1.1, 1.7 and 1.4 each, respectively. With even a middle of the pack 3.5 WAR projection for the bullpen as a whole that would put the Orioles in the high-80s/maybe 90 wins, with upside for much more from their rotation. 

I’m sure the Orioles and everyone else expect their bullpen to be a lot better than what it’s projected to be. 

And people on here will still claim that there’s no bias here. It’s always just a big coinkydink that the O’s always get projected for the worst case scenario. 

[Frobby]

46 minutes ago, dystopia said:

And people on here will still claim that there’s no bias here. It’s always just a big coinkydink that the O’s always get projected for the worst case scenario. 

There is no bias here.  The whole thing is cranked out by computers using algorithms for how the individual players are likely to do.  The only “human element” for Fangraphs is that their staff makes educated guesses on how the playing time will be divided, and there’s no reason why those guesses should be “biased” in some way against the O’s. 

[dystopia]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There is no bias here.  The whole thing is cranked out by computers using algorithms for how the individual players are likely to do.  The only “human element” for Fangraphs is that their staff makes educated guesses on how the playing time will be divided, and there’s no reason why those guesses should be “biased” in some way against the O’s. 

And who programs these “algorithms?”

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, Sanity Check said:

Not to get too full of ourselves, but a lot did go right for us last year, and we outperformed all expectations, including how we fared in wins/losses with out record in 1-run games, as well as our not so amazing run differential.

I as much of a fan as anyone on here, but the Orioles need to prove that last year was not a fluke.....and that last week of 2023 and the playoff performance were just aberrations.

Burnes helps offset regression. Also, Means is back. Holliday should be up too. We aight. Another set up man reliever would be nice. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, dystopia said:

And who programs these “algorithms?”

Obviously people who hate the Orioles. They fixed the entire system on the projection model 17 people know about to make the team look bad.  

[CaptainRedbeard]

6 minutes ago, dystopia said:

And who programs these “algorithms?”

Even if the models were biased, which they are not, the guy who does the ZIPS model (half of the Fangraphs projections) is a big Orioles fan. 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Fangraphs’ Depth Charts are going to end up projecting the Orioles similar to PECOTA, in the mid-80s. If PECOTA is similar to Fangraphs, the reason is pretty modest projections for Bradish and Grayson (relative to everyone’s expectations based on their second half performances), and a pretty poor one for Means, then across the board terrible projections for the bullpen. 

Fangraphs currently projects the Orioles’ bullpen to be worth 1.4 WAR total. Last year they were 7.5 WAR. Bautista was 2.8 WAR of that of course, but Kimbrel, Cano and Coulombe were 1.1, 1.7 and 1.4 each, respectively. With even a middle of the pack 3.5 WAR projection for the bullpen as a whole that would put the Orioles in the high-80s/maybe 90 wins, with upside for much more from their rotation. 

I’m sure the Orioles and everyone else expect their bullpen to be a lot better than what it’s projected to be. 

Last year, a 1.4 WAR would have been 24th (and far from 23rd) in the league.  Basically, they feel the Os will be a bottom third BP. 
 

I personally think that’s possible but I wouldn’t predict it. However, if you told me right now that our pen will be league average, I would take that.

[Can_of_corn]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There is no bias here.  The whole thing is cranked out by computers using algorithms for how the individual players are likely to do.  The only “human element” for Fangraphs is that their staff makes educated guesses on how the playing time will be divided, and there’s no reason why those guesses should be “biased” in some way against the O’s. 

There is also no reason for them to have a bias.

Why would they bother making projections that they know are faulty just to skew the projections against a specific team?

It makes zero sense.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Even if the models were biased, which they are not, the guy who does the ZIPS model (half of the Fangraphs projections) is a big Orioles fan. 

The only way to get the Yankees to have 8 more projected wins than the Orioles is to design the model in a way that is intended to get that result. Pretty much everyone who isn’t a blind Yankee homer has the O’s as the favorites for the division at this point. 
 

The O’s will never be respected by national media or these so-called “projection” outfits. It’s just the way it is. 

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Even if the models were biased, which they are not, the guy who does the ZIPS model (half of the Fangraphs projections) is a big Orioles fan. 

Yea but that’s only on the surface. Syzmborski is actually a Yankees fan behind closed doors.  It’s all a giant conspiracy.

[dystopia]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yea but that’s only on the surface. Syzmborski is actually a Yankees fan behind closed doors.  It’s all a giant conspiracy.

You’re right. 86 wins is totally a reasonable projection for this squad. How stupid of me. 
 

O’s add a frontline starter and win 15 less wins. Yankees add Soto and gain 12 wins. Lol

No rational defense for this. 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, dystopia said:

How stupid of me. 
 

We finally agree

[Sports Guy]

I think these projection systems are dumb personally…I have never put any weight into them.

But acting like they rig things to show 1 out of 30 teams  to be worse than they should is easily one of the most absurd arguments ever seen on this site.  That’s right up there with Hayden Penn couldn’t be a good player because he doesn’t have a good name.