Jackson Holliday spring training watch

[DirtyBird]

24 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

First 2 pitches were incredible takes.  

Or just “takes”

[forphase1]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

Why would he have said anything remotely hinting Holliday as a 2024 OD if 2025 was on the table?  That's not how a risk averse/hedge-conscience guy operates.

I've been around sports long enough to know that I take anything said by about any GM or Manager type with a giant grain of salt.  I don't think they often just outright lie mind you,  but they can be very good at both avoiding and answering anything and talking in maybes and possibilities, rarely strongly committing to anything.   They also are playing a PR game 24/7.  When asked about Holliday do you really expect him to say he had no shot?  Or to say there is almost no chance he's on the OD due to team control issues?  Of course not.   Even IF both those things were true (no shot and manipulation of service time) Elias isn't going to say so when a reporter asks him about Holliday.  What he said is exactly what I'd expect him to say,  regardless of what the actual plans for Holliday are/were.

As I've said all off season and spring, I'll believe it when I see it.   When Holliday (and Mayo) are on the roster in OD, then I'll be convinced it's happening.  But until that point I expect them both in AAA, for a yet to be determined time.  

As to the road map comment, I'm just looking at what they did and didn't do during the offseason.  They SHOULD be in a 'win it all now' mode based on the wins last year and the talent on the team or close to the team.   But one aging 'big' name relief signing and one trade for SP when we still need help in both makes me question where we are on that road map.  I don't see a ton of evidence that they are pulling out all the stops to win in 2024.  And I certainly won't feel that way if we start the season with Urias or Mateo starting every single game with Holliday and Mayo in AAA.

[btdart20]

17 minutes ago, forphase1 said:

 When Holliday (and Mayo) are on the roster in OD, then I'll be convinced it's happening.  But until that point I expect them both in AAA, for a yet to be determined time

Elias' comment had nothing to do with Mayo.  

You haven't convinced me that Holliday being 2025 ROY eligible is a thing to worry about.  Maybe I'm naive and am missing something in the GM lingo, but I really don't see it in my years of following sports too.

Trading and signing the guys we did (as opposed to not backfilling Bradish/Bautista) makes it even more evident.  

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Elias' comment had nothing to do with Mayo.  

You haven't convinced me that Holliday being 2025 ROY eligible is a thing to worry about.  Maybe I'm naive and am missing something in the GM lingo, but I really don't see it in my years of following sports too.

Trading and signing the guys we did (as opposed to not backfilling Bradish/Bautista) makes it even more evident.  

Just to be clear, you think there’s a chance Holliday is ROY eligible in 2025?

[forphase1]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Just to be clear, you think there’s a chance Holliday is ROY eligible in 2025?

No,  I do, or at least i think there is a chance,  like happened with Gunnar.   I don't THINK it's going to happen,  but I wouldn't be shocked if Holliday is kept down long enough to still be a rookie in 2025.  

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, forphase1 said:

No,  I do, or at least i think there is a chance,  like happened with Gunnar.   I don't THINK it's going to happen,  but I wouldn't be shocked if Holliday is kept down long enough to still be a rookie in 2025.  

Ok what’s the logic 

[forphase1]

26 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Elias' comment had nothing to do with Mayo.  

You haven't convinced me that Holliday being 2025 ROY eligible is a thing to worry about.  Maybe I'm naive and am missing something in the GM lingo, but I really don't see it in my years of following sports too.

Trading and signing the guys we did (as opposed to not backfilling Bradish/Bautista) makes it even more evident.  

I'm not trying to convince you really,  or anyone else.   Heck I HOPE I'm wrong as I want Holliday as our OD 2nd.  But I am trying to be realistic and looking at Elias past history,  our roster crunch and construction and the economics of things,  I don't think he'll be here to start OD.  The question then is if he's down just a few weeks to get the year of service, a couple of months to miss Super 2, or most of the season to retain rookie eligibility.  

I don't think him being down that long is likely, but nor do I believe it to be an impossibility. 

[forphase1]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Ok what’s the logic 

First is whomever gets cut to give him a spot is possibly lost if claimed.  The Os like hoarding talent to a point.   Second, if he's up some favorites like Mateo and Urias get less playing time.  That's great from my perspective, but I'm not making the decision.  Third, the competition for ROY this year appears to be intense.  If getting that extra pick is really a serious consideration, he's likely to have a better shot next year due to his additional maturity and the rookie class may not be as deep.   

As I've stated,  I don't agree with starting him in AAA, and I want him starting OD at 2nd for the Os.  But I expect him in AAA for at least a few weeks,  maybe a couple of months and possibly, though maybe unlikely,  for a large part of the season. 

[Billy F-Face3]

3 hours ago, forphase1 said:

 Third, the competition for ROY this year appears to be intense.

This is an understatement. Spencer Jones just hit 2 home run bombs in the Spring Breakouts game and has been hyped up as the next Judge, so there's another guy into that possibility. There's a bunch of rookies like that this year.

[DirtyBird]

9 hours ago, forphase1 said:

 Second, if he's up some favorites like Mateo and Urias get less playing time.  That's great from my perspective, but I'm not making the decision.  

From July to October, Mateo averaged 38 plate appearances per month.

If you have young prospects up, they need consistent at bats. It is mathematically impossible to have primary starters getting consistent at bats at the same time as all your bench players.

[Orioles0615]

I know for one thing if Holliday doesn't make the opening day roster the national media will blast Eias and the Orioles for it, and for good reason, even more so if Holliday and Mayo don't make it. 

 

And when it happens, local media will just not question it and suck up to Kolton Wong

Edited March 17 by Orioles0615

[Just Regular]

Its clear Elias likes Mateo, and it's easy to see why, but I think the end of the runway of having even 40 PA/month to establish yourself as a big leaguer is about here.

That said, he was the very rare strong performer against Texas, and he probably doesn't think these kids are better than him, said Every Veteran Ever.

2023 was a quiet Elias year at the end of camp after 2021 Yolmer Sanchez and 2022 Tanner Scott.

[RZNJ]

I thought Holliday would make it and still hope he does but his AB's against LHP's and walk:strikeouts numbers give them a plausible reason for sending him down.

[Bemorewins]

12 hours ago, forphase1 said:

I've been around sports long enough to know that I take anything said by about any GM or Manager type with a giant grain of salt.  I don't think they often just outright lie mind you,  but they can be very good at both avoiding and answering anything and talking in maybes and possibilities, rarely strongly committing to anything.   They also are playing a PR game 24/7.  When asked about Holliday do you really expect him to say he had no shot?  Or to say there is almost no chance he's on the OD due to team control issues?  Of course not.   Even IF both those things were true (no shot and manipulation of service time) Elias isn't going to say so when a reporter asks him about Holliday.  What he said is exactly what I'd expect him to say,  regardless of what the actual plans for Holliday are/were.

As I've said all off season and spring, I'll believe it when I see it.   When Holliday (and Mayo) are on the roster in OD, then I'll be convinced it's happening.  But until that point I expect them both in AAA, for a yet to be determined time.  

As to the road map comment, I'm just looking at what they did and didn't do during the offseason.  They SHOULD be in a 'win it all now' mode based on the wins last year and the talent on the team or close to the team.   But one aging 'big' name relief signing and one trade for SP when we still need help in both makes me question where we are on that road map.  I don't see a ton of evidence that they are pulling out all the stops to win in 2024.  And I certainly won't feel that way if we start the season with Urias or Mateo starting every single game with Holliday and Mayo in AAA.

It is clear that you don’t want to believe that Holliday will start the season with the O’s which is cool. But I wonder why you continue to group Holliday with Mayo. Not that Mayo is not an outstanding prospect but Holliday is on another level, his own tier. When was the last time you can recall a player jumping 4 levels as a teenager? The last I can recall is maybe A-Rod?

You stated in the post above about Elias’ comments before the Spring about Holliday being PR. But he could have simply said Holliday will have an opportunity to compete, but he said on multiple occasions that Holliday would be given every opportunity to make the team out of Spring. There’s a difference there.

Also, why would the O’s  promote him last year at warp speed only to slow play him this year? What is the sense in that in terms of the relationship with the player longterm?  They could have easily kept him mainly at SS and used his defense as “a reason” why he was not ready. No?

[DirtyBird]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

It is clear that you don’t want to believe that Holliday will start the season with the O’s which is cool. But I wonder why you continue to group Holliday with Mayo. Not that Mayo is not an outstanding prospect but Holliday is on another level, his own tier. When was the last time you can recall a player jumping 4 levels as a teenager?

Mayo is 2 years older, and has 200 more AAA plate appearances, and over .100 point higher OPS at that level and hit well vs both RHP and LHP.