Cole Irvin: “I’m not saying I’m in the best shape of my life”

[dystopia]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

What board are you reading? Seriously. The second the injuries were announced almost every single person went ahead and scratched Irvin's name in the rotation. I had him making the team in the bullpen prior to the injuries, so most of us felt he had a role on this team. 

 

Maybe, but I recall the immediate reaction to the injuries was to go get one or two more starters (understandably). Now we’re hearing about how Irvin is better than Means after two innings in the 2nd spring game. It’s just kind of funny. I honestly like Irvin and I think he’ll be solid for us this year. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Maybe, but I recall the immediate reaction to the injuries was to go get one or two more starters (understandably). Now we’re hearing about how Irvin is better than Means after two innings in the 2nd spring game. It’s just kind of funny. I honestly like Irvin and I think he’ll be solid for us this year. 

That’s a misrepresentation of what was said by @IPlayGM.   What he said was: “Is it crazy to think that Irvin will be more effective this year as a starter than Means?”  That’s hardly a definitive prediction.  

There’s a huge amount of variability in how players do from one year to the next.  John Means’ 20th/50th/80th percentile ZiPS projections are 3.78/4.24/4.83, while Irvin’s are 4.06/4.58/5.16.   That tells you (before any spring training innings or news of Means’ delayed start to the season) that the odds favor Means being better, but there’s also a pretty decent chance of Irvin being better.   
 

[Sports Guy]

57 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Maybe, but I recall the immediate reaction to the injuries was to go get one or two more starters (understandably). Now we’re hearing about how Irvin is better than Means after two innings in the 2nd spring game. It’s just kind of funny. I honestly like Irvin and I think he’ll be solid for us this year. 

I think the immediate reaction about the state of the rotation was more about Bradish than Means. The reaction to Means was more of the idea that he may be someone you can’t rely on at all but I don’t think anyone thinks no Means drastically hurts the rotation. 
 

No Bradish drastically hurts the rotation, especially the upside of the rotation and what it could look like in October.

And of course, the stress on the pen, since it appeared that Wells and Irvin were headed to the pen and the bullpen was already the weak link.

Edited February 26 by Sports Guy

[sportsfan8703]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the immediate reaction about the state of the rotation was more about Bradish than Means. The reaction to Means was more of the idea that he may be someone you can’t rely on at all but I don’t think anyone things no Means drastically hurts the rotation. 
 

No Bradish drastically hurts the rotation, especially the upside of the rotation and what it could look like in October.

And of course, the stress on the pen, since it appeared that Wells and Irvin were headed to the pen and the bullpen was already the weak link.

Irving should be a decent 5 and dive type option.  The silver lining if that happens is that we could see Mcdermott/Johnson come up on those days Irvin starts to fill in the other innings.  Two power RH arms.  

[Tony-OH]

54 minutes ago, dystopia said:

Maybe, but I recall the immediate reaction to the injuries was to go get one or two more starters (understandably). Now we’re hearing about how Irvin is better than Means after two innings in the 2nd spring game. It’s just kind of funny. I honestly like Irvin and I think he’ll be solid for us this year. 

So you take a few comments and surmise it's the entire board's thoughts? maybe you should respond to the poster that you disagree with vs saying "the board" or acting like everyone has the same thoughts. i would think someone with 2.4K posts here would kinda understand that by now. 

 

[Spy Fox]

15 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Irving should be a decent 5 and dive type option.  The silver lining if that happens is that we could see Mcdermott/Johnson come up on those days Irvin starts to fill in the other innings.  Two power RH arms.  

He doesn't necessarily have to be 5 and dive, if he's pitching well. The O's used him that way last year, but he averaged over 6 IP a start for Oakland the year before, and didn't show an overall performance dropoff after the 5th. 

[Sports Guy]

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

I expect Irvin is going to give back some of the velo gains on the four seamer as he continues to get stretched out, but probably still be above where he was. And even if he stays 94/95 with the 4 seam / sinker, the 4 seam at least is not going to be a plus pitch because it’s so low spin rate. 

However, he had an even bigger velo spike on his cutter (about 3mph), and he used it a lot (25%), and that’s very interesting. 

In the most rosy scenario, I could see #4 upside from Irvin with ~30% cutters and ~25% combined four seam / sinkers (cutters to righties, sinkers to lefties and just enough elevated 4 seamers against RH and LH to mix things up).  Somewhat like a lefty Dean Kremer, with still less velo/worse 4 seamer, but with better changeup command.

Neither have a real swing and miss offspeed and that will always hold them back but you can go far with good command of 3 distinct hard pitches if the cutter is good. 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Irving should be a decent 5 and dive type option.  The silver lining if that happens is that we could see Mcdermott/Johnson come up on those days Irvin starts to fill in the other innings.  Two power RH arms.  

I don’t really see Irvin as a five and dive guy.  In 2021, he pitched 6+ in 17 of 32 outings, including 6 starts of 7+.  In 2022, he pitched 6+ in 19 of 30 starts, including 8 starts of 7+.   In 2021 he was 35th of 101 pitchers who threw 100+ innings in IP/start; in 2922 he was 21st of 124.  He’s really more of a left-handed Kyle Gibson than a five and dive guy.   

[Just Regular]

Yesterday's velocity was fun.    I think pitchers like Cole Irvin with good endurance skills probably have to think about how much to lean into the Driveline intensity game to save their careers.

I'd guess there was some adrenaline, some foreknowledge of the day's job, some Jake Fox.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I have a sneaking suspicion that Irvin is going to deliver a monster season.  Bear in mind, this is about as Kool-Aid as I ever get, it's spring and I still find this part of the season incredibly boring.  Spring Training is, quite frankly, exhausting.

The Orioles picked him up late last offseason, I don't think he really had a lot of time to get used to whatever the Orioles wanted to do with him from an analytics, pitch mix, etc, perspective.  I also don't think those changes happen overnight which maybe explains why he started so poorly last year.

But when he came back in the second half, he was markedly different.  IIRC, the velocity was up.  The breaking stuff was better.  

So it's my hope that after the 2nd half of last year and an entire offseason of being able to work with the Orioles, he can put together a whole season that's more in line with the 2nd half of 2023.

[jabba72]

14 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I have a sneaking suspicion that Irvin is going to deliver a monster season.  Bear in mind, this is about as Kool-Aid as I ever get, it's spring and I still find this part of the season incredibly boring.  Spring Training is, quite frankly, exhausting.

The Orioles picked him up late last offseason, I don't think he really had a lot of time to get used to whatever the Orioles wanted to do with him from an analytics, pitch mix, etc, perspective.  I also don't think those changes happen overnight which maybe explains why he started so poorly last year.

But when he came back in the second half, he was markedly different.  IIRC, the velocity was up.  The breaking stuff was better.  

So it's my hope that after the 2nd half of last year and an entire offseason of being able to work with the Orioles, he can put together a whole season that's more in line with the 2nd half of 2023.

If Irvin can hold mid 90's velocity as a left handed SP, that to me feels like a great rotation piece to have. Definitely can see a #3 ceiling. 

[Sports Guy]

https://qopbaseball.com/

[G54377]

I mean even if Irvin is just what he was with the A's and gets you 180 innings of about 4 ERA ball that's still an upgrade and replacement for Gibson. If either Means or Bradish makes their way back Irvin is a decent 5th starter at least.

[Billy F-Face3]

I think Irvin has more of a chance to pitch a complete season as an Orioles starting pitcher than Tyler Wells or John Means (even after he comes back) does. Irvin has much more stamina than those guys do.