Jackson Holliday 2024

[EdwinRip]

52 minutes ago, banks703 said:

 

Edited July 16 by EdwinRip

[EdwinRip]

1 hour ago, banks703 said:

Wouldn’t holiday’s range factor be superior with those stats?

[banks703]

40 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Wouldn’t holiday’s range factor be superior with those stats?

It could mean that but it doesn't have to mean that. There's much more that goes into it than just opportunities. 

[Malike]

9 hours ago, Il BuonO said:

Holliday heads up a deal for Skubal. In or out?

I'm out.

[baltfan]

Not trading Holliday.  I want the big three in Baltimore. Give me Kikuchi or something similar and I will take my chances.  I want to see what this all looks like together.  The top three are special and Holliday might be the least special of them. 

[O's84]

15 minutes ago, baltfan said:

Not trading Holliday.  I want the big three in Baltimore. Give me Kikuchi or something similar and I will take my chances.  I want to see what this all looks like together.  The top three are special and Holliday might be the least special of them. 

I really don't think you need to worry about that.  I'd be shocked if Elias deals any of them.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, O's84 said:

I really don't think you need to worry about that.  I'd be shocked if Elias deals any of them.

Skubal may be the one guy that could cause him to do it.

[CTBear]

The one benefit to a Holliday trade will always be that his value is higher elsewhere than it is in Baltimore. If his defensive ceiling was 2B, his prospect ranking would be a good bit lower. It’s only #1 because he can play SS. Take Termarr Johnson, for example. He was graded by some as an 80 grade bat in the same draft class but his defensive ceiling was viewed as 2B so guys like Holliday and Druw Jones were valued higher. 

[O's84]

33 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Skubal may be the one guy that could cause him to do it.

I think Elias trades for a #3-ish starter and some bullpen help.  Don't see him paying the price for Skubal.

[Malike]

41 minutes ago, CTBear said:

The one benefit to a Holliday trade will always be that his value is higher elsewhere than it is in Baltimore. If his defensive ceiling was 2B, his prospect ranking would be a good bit lower. It’s only #1 because he can play SS. Take Termarr Johnson, for example. He was graded by some as an 80 grade bat in the same draft class but his defensive ceiling was viewed as 2B so guys like Holliday and Druw Jones were valued higher. 

If you think Holliday is going to be the player he's expected to be, then having him at 2B isn't going to change the calculus. Altuve, Alomar, Cano, plenty of MVP-type players at that position.

[survivedc]

1 hour ago, CTBear said:

The one benefit to a Holliday trade will always be that his value is higher elsewhere than it is in Baltimore. If his defensive ceiling was 2B, his prospect ranking would be a good bit lower. It’s only #1 because he can play SS. Take Termarr Johnson, for example. He was graded by some as an 80 grade bat in the same draft class but his defensive ceiling was viewed as 2B so guys like Holliday and Druw Jones were valued higher. 

Point taken, maybe on value w/r/t the draft. But Johnson isn’t in the same stratosphere as Holiday with what he has done so far in pro ball.

[CTBear]

9 hours ago, Malike said:

If you think Holliday is going to be the player he's expected to be, then having him at 2B isn't going to change the calculus. Altuve, Alomar, Cano, plenty of MVP-type players at that position.

That’s fair. Those 3 guys all with HOF-caliber hitting. Holliday has a long way to go if he’s going to put up those type numbers. Those are very lofty expectations

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

10 hours ago, O's84 said:

I really don't think you need to worry about that.  I'd be shocked if Elias deals any of them.

I think it's more likely Elias goes the veteran pitcher route because the team needs bullpen help as well. I can see Elias trading for a starting pitcher and two relievers. Giving up a king's ransom for Skubal and then still needing to get bullpen help is going to put a dent into the minor league depth.

[CaptainRedbeard]

If the Orioles have any way of getting Skubal without trading one of Holliday, Mayo or Basallo, they should be all over that. But even if the offer to the Tigers is Kjerstad or Cowser + whatever 4 prospects the Tigers think are #5, 6, 7, 8 in the system, I think the Tigers turn that down.

And in any case, Kjerstad (or Cowser) may be better than the headliner Dodgers’ top prospect they can offer, but the Dodgers have many more 50 FV guys that are better than those right behind Kjerstad in the Orioles’ system and they could probably overall beat the Orioles’ package. 

It is going to require Holliday, Mayo or Basallo. I’d rather trade keep them, trade from the middle of the farm system for 1-2 rental or 1.5yr SPs, and spend some money this offseason to keep Burnes and/or add other FA SPs. But if the Orioles are entertaining trading one of the top 3, I think this is the rationale:

Holliday - To trade him, they would have to really believe in Mayo’s defense at 3B (and Westburg’s defense at 2B). I don’t buy that they would overreact to his rough 2 week MLB stint, but I do think that could have raised concerns about his contact rate, which was previously a bit glossed over by national prospect evaluations. Still, I think the Orioles would have to be much lower on him than he’s generally viewed outside the organization to trade him.

Mayo - Hard to see any flaws in Mayo as a hitter. But if he is strictly a 1B/DH with the Orioles, then he’s still going to be very valuable, but probably not so valuable that he’s worth more than 2.5 years of Skubal. You’re still giving a lot, but you’re getting a lot back. And even if the Orioles believe in him at 3B, they still have Gunnar, Westburg, Holliday. So Holliday would have to move to CF, which is a question mark. And the fact they haven’t tried Mayo at all in RF may indicate that they don’t think he’ll have the speed to play it, despite his arm. All things considered, I think Mayo is the guy on the table. 

Basallo - Similar to Mayo, if you think he’s only going to be a 1B/DH with the Orioles, then he could still be very valuable but worth giving up for Skubal. But his defensive upside with the Orioles is much higher than Mayo’s. At a minimum, he could be a part time catcher co-existing with Adley. And Adley is only under control for 3 more years after this one. Plus, with his great arm and the automated ball/strike system coming to MLB in some capacity, I’m bullish on his athleticism translating into being able to improve enough on blocking balls to stick at C, moreso than I am bullish on Mayo at 3B (and I’m not down on Mayo at 3B either). It comes down to Basallo as a C being worth more than Mayo as a 3B, particularly give  how the Orioles are constructed with Gunnar/Westburg/Holliday. 

[O's84]

1 hour ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I think it's more likely Elias goes the veteran pitcher route because the team needs bullpen help as well. I can see Elias trading for a starting pitcher and two relievers. Giving up a king's ransom for Skubal and then still needing to get bullpen help is going to put a dent into the minor league depth.

 

11 hours ago, O's84 said:

I think Elias trades for a #3-ish starter and some bullpen help.  Don't see him paying the price for Skubal.

Yeah, that's what I was alluding to earlier.