Jackson Holliday 2024

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, spleen1015 said:

I must have missed this post the first time. The ignore user fuction on this board has increased my enjoyment of the board quite a bit. I highly recommend it.

I agree with you that this thread should be in the minors section. I just assume it's still here because of Holliday's cup of coffee in the majors.

Other guys routinely have their threads moved back to the minor league section when they’re sent down.   I don’t see people posting about Kjerstad in this forum, despite his continuing AAA rampage (1.031 OPS, compared to .898 for Holliday).   Honestly, I don’t know why it bothers me, but it does.   

[sportsfan8703]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Other guys routinely have their threads moved back to the minor league section when they’re sent down.   I don’t see people posting about Kjerstad in this forum, despite his continuing AAA rampage (1.031 OPS, compared to .898 for Holliday).   Honestly, I don’t know why it bothers me, but it does.   

It gets more views on the main page and we should be happy for this place. Plus, we’re 23 games over .500. Holliday and his #1 prospect in baseball potential, is the type of potential that can crack our lineup and push us over the top for a WS. We still can have Miguel Cabrera type hope from that Marlins run. 

Holliday O/U 0.5 Postseason Appearances?  What would you take today?  I’d still take the over. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, sportsfan8703 said:

It gets more views on the main page and we should be happy for this place. Plus, we’re 23 games over .500. Holliday and his #1 prospect in baseball potential, is the type of potential that can crack our lineup and push us over the top for a WS. We still can have Miguel Cabrera type hope from that Marlins run. 

Holliday O/U 0.5 Postseason Appearances?  What would you take today?  I’d still take the over. 

I honestly don’t know.  I don’t think what Holliday is doing in AAA is all that compelling, but he could turn on the jets at any time.  The biggest difference between now and when he was called up is that both Urías and Mateo have been hitting well.   There’s no real impetus for Holliday right now.  However, that could change.  

[Sports Guy]

He is walking a ton right now. I wonder if AAA pitchers are just staying away from him?  

[Sports Guy]

40 minutes ago, baltfan said:

This is not a sky is falling post but more of a resetting of expectations one.  Holliday has hit .087 the last 7 games.  His OPS is now .898.  A lot of that OPS is driven by OBP.  Normally that is a good thing, but with Holliday he showed little ability to walk at the big league level.  I think last year was a bit of a mirage reminiscent of the amazing year Wieters had in the minors when he was touted as Mauer with power.

In short, Holliday's inability to do damage is going to allow pitchers in the MLB to challenge him.  He won't be walking, like he is in the minors.  It's also troubling that in the majors he seemed to have trouble with every type of pitch, not just velocity.   I still think he is a very good prospect, but I would take Mayo or Basallo over him and would trade him for the right young starter.  I just don't think the upside is there and am worried about the floor more and more.  

34 at bats 

[Sports Guy]

20 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Other guys routinely have their threads moved back to the minor league section when they’re sent down.   I don’t see people posting about Kjerstad in this forum, despite his continuing AAA rampage (1.031 OPS, compared to .898 for Holliday).   Honestly, I don’t know why it bothers me, but it does.   

This thread being here is way better than having several threads started about the same topic or people bumping threads that are very old.

 

[foxfield]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Other guys routinely have their threads moved back to the minor league section when they’re sent down.   I don’t see people posting about Kjerstad in this forum, despite his continuing AAA rampage (1.031 OPS, compared to .898 for Holliday).   Honestly, I don’t know why it bothers me, but it does.   

It bothers me that it bothers you.  It makes no sense at all, and yes...of course that bothers me too.  Retirement is fun.

[DirtyBird]

34 AB - not a small sample size when OPS is over 1.000, including some dinky 2B’s. He will be up soon and be one of the best players on the team.

34 AB when not producing, SSS and nothing can be taken from it.

[Sanity Check]

19 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This thread being here is way better than having several threads started about the same topic or people bumping threads that are very old.

 

Kind of like the offseason Dylan Cease thread(s).

[OriolesMagic83]

35 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

This thread being here is way better than having several threads started about the same topic or people bumping threads that are very old.

 

It makes as much sense as a bunch of Mullins threads in the minor leagues sections because some posters think he should be there.

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

This is not a sky is falling post but more of a resetting of expectations one.  Holliday has hit .087 the last 7 games.  His OPS is now .898.  A lot of that OPS is driven by OBP.  Normally that is a good thing, but with Holliday he showed little ability to walk at the big league level.  I think last year was a bit of a mirage reminiscent of the amazing year Wieters had in the minors when he was touted as Mauer with power.

In short, Holliday's inability to do damage is going to allow pitchers in the MLB to challenge him.  He won't be walking, like he is in the minors.  It's also troubling that in the majors he seemed to have trouble with every type of pitch, not just velocity.   I still think he is a very good prospect, but I would take Mayo or Basallo over him and would trade him for the right young starter.  I just don't think the upside is there and am worried about the floor more and more.  

His OPS has dropped to .898, yes, but his overall AAA performance this year still equates to a 139 wRC+. 

20-year-olds who can be 40% better than the field at AAA are a pretty damn good demographic to bet on. Since 2006, I can locate a total of 8 players who’ve done that in a season with more than 100 PAs:

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

Ronald Acuna, Jr.

Riley Greene

Jay Bruce

Wander Franco

Freddie Freeman

Fernando Martinez

Jackson Holliday

Fernando was juicing, and god only knows what Wander was doing. Of the guys that weren’t into illegal stuff, Jay Bruce is likely the disappointment of the group, proving to be “just” a 3-time All-Star. Riley Greene still has a bit to go in terms of crafting a resume, but a 128 wRC+ at 23 suggests he’s got the goods.

It appears to be basically impossible to succeed to that extent at that level of baseball at that young an age without being preternaturally, supremely gifted.

Your points about the nature of his success — very OBP/BB heavy — are interesting and will bear monitoring. I would agree that none of those other guys was carrying a 22% BB rate, so that does set him apart a bit. But the kid is still hitting .270 with an ISO right around .200, so it’s not like he’s just Eddie Gaedel up there, hoping they can’t throw three pitches into his tiny strike zone. Plus, this is a kid with 1:1 tools and elite pedigree/work ethic — I think it’s pretty reasonable to imagine more pop will develop between drinking age and car rental age.

 

It’s tough for me to imagine a pitcher I would trade him for. That would have the talent and the years of control and the reasonably expected durability that I’d need in order to push that button. Maybe Skenes straight up? Otherwise, I can’t really think of anyone. With the specter of TJS hanging over every arm at the moment, pitchers who are even 2-3 years from FA are one twinge away from giving you almost nothing in return.

[RZNJ]

1 hour ago, baltfan said:

This is not a sky is falling post but more of a resetting of expectations one.  Holliday has hit .087 the last 7 games.  His OPS is now .898.  A lot of that OPS is driven by OBP.  Normally that is a good thing, but with Holliday he showed little ability to walk at the big league level.  I think last year was a bit of a mirage reminiscent of the amazing year Wieters had in the minors when he was touted as Mauer with power.

In short, Holliday's inability to do damage is going to allow pitchers in the MLB to challenge him.  He won't be walking, like he is in the minors.  It's also troubling that in the majors he seemed to have trouble with every type of pitch, not just velocity.   I still think he is a very good prospect, but I would take Mayo or Basallo over him and would trade him for the right young starter.  I just don't think the upside is there and am worried about the floor more and more.  

He has the ability to do damage.  23 of his 51 hits are for extra bases. He has 54 walks.  Someone is being careful with him.   

[SemperFi]

Holliday committed his 10th error in 40 games at 2b at Norfolk this year and that is flat out ugly. 

 At SS last year in 2.5X the innings he made a total of 12 errors all year-at a much more demanding and difficult position.  For context Westburg at 2b has a total of 2 errors in 3 times the chances, the much maligned Frazier had 5 errors in 3X the chances/games.  Norby who is seen as sub par committed a terrible 16 last year in 3x the chances!!  Holliday is on an atrocious pace, approaching dead ball era stats.

That doesn't count the arm yips or foibles on pop ups in RF plus mistakes in responsibilities-was it a coincidence he was demoted  just after blowing a crucial cut-he broke to cover the bag on a ball to RF?  

Look-I know error stats are dubious but this is more than a trend-he's simply not ready to play 2b defensively at ML level.  I really like JH and think he is special-his range, anticipation and hands are exceptional  but it's not so easy to plug a guy into a position he has rarely played without defensive consequences.  

 

[baltfan]

7 minutes ago, e16bball said:

His OPS has dropped to .898, yes, but his overall AAA performance this year still equates to a 139 wRC+. 

20-year-olds who can be 40% better than the field at AAA are a pretty damn good demographic to bet on. Since 2006, I can locate a total of 8 players who’ve done that in a season with more than 100 PAs:

Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.

Ronald Acuna, Jr.

Riley Greene

Jay Bruce

Wander Franco

Freddie Freeman

Fernando Martinez

Jackson Holliday

Fernando was juicing, and god only knows what Wander was doing. Of the guys that weren’t into illegal stuff, Jay Bruce is likely the disappointment of the group, proving to be “just” a 3-time All-Star. Riley Greene still has a bit to go in terms of crafting a resume, but a 128 wRC+ at 23 suggests he’s got the goods.

It appears to be basically impossible to succeed to that extent at that level of baseball at that young an age without being preternaturally, supremely gifted.

Your points about the nature of his success — very OBP/BB heavy — are interesting and will bear monitoring. I would agree that none of those other guys was carrying a 22% BB rate, so that does set him apart a bit. But the kid is still hitting .270 with an ISO right around .200, so it’s not like he’s just Eddie Gaedel up there, hoping they can’t throw three pitches into his tiny strike zone. Plus, this is a kid with 1:1 tools and elite pedigree/work ethic — I think it’s pretty reasonable to imagine more pop will develop between drinking age and car rental age.

 

It’s tough for me to imagine a pitcher I would trade him for. That would have the talent and the years of control and the reasonably expected durability that I’d need in order to push that button. Maybe Skenes straight up? Otherwise, I can’t really think of anyone. With the specter of TJS hanging over every arm at the moment, pitchers who are even 2-3 years from FA are one twinge away from giving you almost nothing in return.

Good post.  They guys that have skillsets most similar to him are Franco and Greene.  Franco was a slight disappointment.  Greene has been as well.  Again, I am not saying he isn't a top 20 overall prospect.  I just think he isn't top 5 or as good as Mayo or Basallo

[baltfan]

7 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

He has the ability to do damage.  23 of his 51 hits are for extra bases. He has 54 walks.  Someone is being careful with him.   

Andrew Vaughn had a good OBP in the minors with better power.  His OBP in the majors is .283 this year.  Yes, he we older, but OBP in the minors doesn't necessarily translate.  

Andrew Vaughn Amateur, College & Minor Leagues Statistics | Baseball-Reference.com