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Posts
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By Aristotelian · Posted
I'm kind of assuming a scenario where Mayo is deemed unplayable at 3B, so he has to play either 1B or OF. The idea is not to alter the R/L balance but that he would be better than RMC or Hays due to his bat. My sense is that long term Mayo may be RMC's long term replacement at 1B, so why not just accelerate that process? Mayo is definitely more of a stretch to replace Hays, but depending on how Hays is playing it may be worth it. Basically, there are reasons to keep all the guys currently on the roster: we need Mateo and Urias for infield versatility, Cowser to back up center, Mountcastle and Hays to hit lefties... Something has to give for Mayo to crack the lineup. -
My only point about the ERA is that I don’t see the Pirates’ ERA as anything to write home about, and therefore I’m not ready to anoint their pitching development staff as anything special. I agree that the Orioles’ ERA doesn’t say that much about their development either, though there are a number of guys on the staff not drafted in the Elias regime but developed during it. As to Fruit, I have no idea if he’ll be good or not, I just don’t want to write him off because he was 23 when he was drafted. The things in the article that most interested me were the special ball they use to give instant feedback on spin, and just the process they’ve used to convert him from a 2-pitch pitcher to a 5-pitch pitcher. It’s just interesting to get an inside look at the processes they’re following, whether they’re above average at pitching development or not. And Meoli is good at digging into those types of details, regardless of whether it’s a puff piece. -
By CaptainRedbeard · Posted
I think last year’s draft was the first year of a period where the Orioles will use a lot more draft capital on pitchers. Here’s what I think the philosophy was, how it’s gone and where it is now: 1. Prioritize draft capital to college hitters, based on analytics showing those are most reliable expected value. The absurd hit rate on the most valuable picks outweighs everything, but Tony’s right that (since Ortiz) there’s lot of mid round picks that haven’t panned out on either all-tools guys or no-tools, not very high upside guys (until maybe Etzel this year). 2. Pre 2023, target late pitchers with little draft capital based on pitch characteristics. Tony’s right this hasn’t worked at all. Baumler being one of the few high upside arms they spent capital on being constantly hurt doesn’t help. 3. Pre 2023, since you’re not spending draft capital on pitchers, target lower level pitching prospects in trades that have better data to evaluate, and develop them. Elias has said he likes to target pitching prospects this way. This worked very well with Bradish, Povich and McDermott, and their development program should still get a lot of credit for them. 4. 2023 draft, the team is now contending and has an absurd group of positional players that can be the core of the team for the next 5 years. Not going to be sellers anymore, so we can’t get pitching prospects that way, and the need for positional prospects is much lower. Shift towards spending higher draft capital on pitchers (but not the first round pick, since the data so strongly says that should be a college hitter). Baumeister being underwhelming and the Lord and Sharkey injuries mean the early results are mixed, but the jury is still out. They’re still prioritizing pitch characteristics over performance, but they are not alone across the league in that approach. 5. This year with a very weak draft, we might even see a college pitcher round 1. I’d still be shocked to see this FO take a HS pitcher with a lot of draft capital, but I think we’ll have a repeat of last year allocating a lot more towards pitching, because that was the plan in the first place and the “safer” college hitters being a weak group only further reinforces that approach. -
By Just Regular · Posted
A simple 2/3 would be four in the loss column, and effectively a 5-game head start in the 2nd Half as the Orioles would cross the finish line in the head to head race to 7 wins for divisional tiebreaker. Wimbledon week, Gerrit Cole had better hold serve against Cade Povich tonight. -
I think my biggest knock on those deals is they would result in almost every CF we have in the org getting traded, except for Cowser and a potential Holliday move to CF. Or Mateo idk. Just leaves us pretty thin at a very important position. -
Agreed. It also make the lineup construction easier going forward platooning Hayes and Kjerstad in LF with Kjerstad also getting some time in RF and DH allowing him to become an everyday player for the second half. It also makes the callup of Mayo easier to replace Mullins on the roster. -
By Hank Scorpio · Posted
Cowser's defense alone is enough to put him out there every night. His offense, for all of it's warts, is no worse than Mullins'. If Mullins has any value, make some room.
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