2024 Prospect Power Rankings

[Three Run Homer]

8 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

@Tony-OH it’s good to see Josenberger get on the board in someway. 

We seem to have not been able to hit yet on one of these big athletes… Rhodes, Trimble, Horvath, Wagner, EBJ, Josenberger, and even McLean to a point. I like the strategy though and the book is only closed on McLean.

Overall Josenberger's offensive productivity is comparable to Bradfield's (including having lots of SB), despite Josenberger being weighed down by a low BABIP and overall BA.   I think he's a candidate to make a performance jump in the second half.    

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, Three Run Homer said:

Overall Josenberger's offensive productivity is comparable to Bradfield's (including having lots of SB), despite Josenberger being weighed down by a low BABIP and overall BA.   I think he's a candidate to make a performance jump in the second half.    

Here’s a question I have to everyone, because I don’t know… Sig probably has models that create a WAR based number that factors in defense and baserunning right?

If so, guys like EBJ would rank a lot higher than we would think. Josenberger to a lesser degree because positional value and I don’t know about his defense on the dirt.

We might all look at EBJ’s season differently if there were a WAR type number generated. He might be our clear #4 prospect, and rank on some top 50-100 lists in all of milb. 

I would think Sig with his models knows the answer to that. 

Edited July 10 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

34 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Here’s a question I have to everyone, because I don’t know… Sig probably has models that create a WAR based number that factors in defense and baserunning right?

If so, guys like EBJ would rank a lot higher than we would think. Josenberger to a lesser degree because positional value and I don’t know about his defense on the dirt.

We might all look at EBJ’s season differently if there were a WAR type number generated. He might be our clear #4 prospect, and rank on some top 50-100 lists in all of milb. 

I would think Sig with his models knows the answer to that. 

 I don't care how much WAR he's putting up at Aberdeen.  The question is if his offensive game translates to the majors.

[sportsfan8703]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

 I don't care how much WAR he's putting up at Aberdeen.  The question is if his offensive game translates to the majors.

I think you get what I'm saying.  There's more of a way to evaluate a player based on an expected OPS in Aberdeen.  What if EBJ is a .675 OPS, GG level CF, that steals 30+ bases a year?  His defense and speed combination give him a lot of wiggle room.  Especially considering the lineup he'll have around him.  

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think you get what I'm saying.  There's more of a way to evaluate a player based on an expected OPS in Aberdeen.  What if EBJ is a .675 OPS, GG level CF, that steals 30+ bases a year?  His defense and speed combination give him a lot of wiggle room.  Especially considering the lineup he'll have around him.  

Yes, I think he’s still playable as a starter at .675 OPS if his defense is as good as the O’s hoped when he was drafted.  But if he hits like Gold Glover Myles Straw, he finds himself back in AAA no matter how good his defense is.  Straw BTW had a .785 OPS in A+.  

[sportsfan8703]

13 hours ago, Frobby said:

Yes, I think he’s still playable as a starter at .675 OPS if his defense is as good as the O’s hoped when he was drafted.  But if he hits like Gold Glover Myles Straw, he finds himself back in AAA no matter how good his defense is.  Straw BTW had a .785 OPS in A+.  

Maybe OPS isn't the best metric to use when evaluating EBJ and Josenberger this season.  We knew their games weren't slugging when we drafted them.  We're trying to develop them.  The speed and defense is there. 

We're probably underrating both by trying to use a metric that incorporates the weakest part of their current games.  A weakness we knew they had.  

Edited July 11 by sportsfan8703

[baltimoriole]

I don’t part much attention to the minors leagues on a micro basis. I saw all the rankings last offseason, and I’m guilty of listening to one episode of On the Verge podcast, where it’s always rainbows and sunshine, and felt the team was destined for a dynasty. Then I look at this ranking and see Povich is the 4th ranked prospect?
 

Sure the team graduated a bunch of the players this season, but if Povich, who I consider a fringy starter TJ McFarland type of pitcher, is #4, what does it say about those below him and the seasons they’re having? 
 

Further cements my feeling in that the orioles don’t have the ammunition to upgrade the big league club—unless they trade the top three. But that’d be a mistake IMO.

[btdart20]

3 hours ago, baltimoriole said:

I don’t part much attention to the minors leagues on a micro basis. I saw all the rankings last offseason, and I’m guilty of listening to one episode of On the Verge podcast, where it’s always rainbows and sunshine, and felt the team was destined for a dynasty. Then I look at this ranking and see Povich is the 4th ranked prospect?
 

Sure the team graduated a bunch of the players this season, but if Povich, who I consider a fringy starter TJ McFarland type of pitcher, is #4, what does it say about those below him and the seasons they’re having? 
 

Further cements my feeling in that the orioles don’t have the ammunition to upgrade the big league club—unless they trade the top three. But that’d be a mistake IMO.

Solid AAA performance.  #6 in K/9 and #5 in K/BB, #7 ERA, #1 FIP of those with 50 IP or more.  At age 24.  That's pretty good, especially for a 4th rank prospect in an org.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/minor-league?pos=all&level=0&lg=2&stats=pit&qual=50&type=1&team=&season=2024&seasonEnd=2024&org=&ind=0&splitTeam=false&players=&sort=7,1

[LookinUp]

On 7/14/2024 at 5:55 AM, baltimoriole said:

Sure the team graduated a bunch of the players this season, but if Povich, who I consider a fringy starter TJ McFarland type of pitcher, is #4, what does it say about those below him and the seasons they’re having? 

Well, I'm guessing Tony doesn't think he's a TJ McFarland type of guy. Maybe they have similarities, but Tony likely says Povich has more upside.

OTOH, McFarland has had like a 10+ year career at this point, so there are worse outcomes for your 4th prospect.

[sportsfan8703]

Billy Cook has had a heck of a year. Hopefully, he can carve out a Steve Pearce like career. 

[Tony-OH]

Updated thru July 22nd.

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Updated thru July 22nd.

Trey Gibson up from 38 to 29.  I’ve heard some good things about him.  

[sportsfan8703]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Updated thru July 22nd.

Thanks for updating as always. Really like this feature throughout the year. 

Josenberger making a move. Wow, our bats having a down year. EBJ, Wagner, Fabian, Horvath, and Beavers, are all in the .700 OPS club instead of .800. 

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Thanks for updating as always. Really like this feature throughout the year. 

Josenberger making a move. Wow, our bats having a down year. EBJ, Wagner, Fabian, Horvath, and Beavers, are all in the .700 OPS club instead of .800. 

For me one of the big developments this year is the success of several hitters in the FCL/DSL.   

Elvin Garcia 1.062 OPS (age 17, DSL)

Jordan Sanchez 1.061 (18, DSL)

Felix Amparo .942 (18, DSL)

Stiven Martinez .911 (16, DSL)

Luis Guevara .864 (18, DSL)

Ariander Mejia .851 (17, DSL)

Miguel Rodriguez .844 (18, FCL)

Elis Cuevas .812 (19, FCL)

Edwin Amparo .802 (19, FCL)

The average OPS is .706 in the DSL and .712 in the FCL.

These guys are a long way from the majors, but that’s okay.   They’ll be maturing as our current crop of young position players are in their Arb years.

[Just Regular]

I don't know how diligent Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo doing MLB.com are about in season updates, but spot checking their list last night vs. Tony's, the biggest thing jumping out at me is MLB (Callis/J. Mayo) do not yet have Michael Forret at all in the Orioles top 30.      This is obviously wrong.

Something to keep in mind when trades start happening, and the elementary boilerplate story is such and such team gave "MLB's #8, #14 and #22" prospects for so and so.