The Defense Thread, 2024

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Greg Pappas said:

Bump.  I've seen posts calling us a terrible defensive team.  Would you all agree?  I'm unsure how to look up defensive numbers AND understand their validity, but this is how I 'see' the team.  

• 1B:  Mountcastle seems above average to me and has for years. O'Hearn is solid as the backup. 
• 2B:  Westburg didn't seem elite, but pretty solid overall (at 2B/3B).  Holliday has had his issues as well and the jury is still out, but I believe he'll settle into a solid defender at 2B.  Perhaps he can be a CF candidate if 2B doesn't work out.
• SS:  Gunnar has had real issues, but I believe he's a positive at SS.
• 3B:  Urias is solid, but no longer elite, and Mayo has a lot to prove in the field to earn a spot at 3B moving forward.  IMHO, Westburg will likely be our 3B moving forward.
• CA:  Rutsch is solid overall.  McCann is as well, but this will almost certainly be his final season.
• OF:  Cowser is very good, if not elite.  Mullins is still a quality defender, as is Santander in RF.  

Your thoughts?

Mountcastle is average. O’Hearn, slightly below average.

Urias is well below average

Gunnar is above average with potential to be elite if he can cut down on the errors.

Cowser is an elite LF.  Average CF.

 

 

[LookitsPuck]

3 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Bump.  I've seen posts calling us a terrible defensive team.  Would you all agree?  I'm unsure how to look up defensive numbers AND understand their validity, but this is how I 'see' the team.  

• 1B:  Mountcastle seems above average to me and has for years. O'Hearn is solid as the backup. 
• 2B:  Westburg didn't seem elite, but pretty solid overall (at 2B/3B).  Holliday has had his issues as well and the jury is still out, but I believe he'll settle into a solid defender at 2B.  Perhaps he can be a CF candidate if 2B doesn't work out.
• SS:  Gunnar has had real issues, but I believe he's a positive at SS.
• 3B:  Urias is solid, but no longer elite, and Mayo has a lot to prove in the field to earn a spot at 3B moving forward.  IMHO, Westburg will likely be our 3B moving forward.
• CA:  Rutsch is solid overall.  McCann is as well, but this will almost certainly be his final season.
• OF:  Cowser is very good, if not elite.  Mullins is still a quality defender, as is Santander in RF.  

Your thoughts?

Here's my thoughts:

• 1B
  • Mountcastle - above average
  • O'Hearn - below average
• 2B
  • Westburg - above average
  • Urias - solid
  • Holliday - below average so far, but I think he'll be an above average defender there
• 3B
  • Westburg - average
  • Mayo - below average to bad
  • Urias - below average now, definitely lost some range, but I like him there much more than Mayo
• SS
  • Gunnar - above average, but he's had a really bad stretch for weeks. I'm optimistic he'll bounce back. 
• CF
  • Cowser - very good to elite
  • Mullins - very good
• RF
  • Santander - doesn't have a lot of speed, but I think he makes the most of his defensive abilities allows him, so I'd say average to slightly above average
• C
  • McCann and Adley have been disappointments to me. They don't frame well, they're nearly at the very bottom in all of MLB, they're below average in CS, and these things really are problematic when they're coupled with Burnes, Kimbrel, and others that do poor jobs holding runners.

I think this team has taken a hit in LF without Austin Hays. I think Slater's ability to play multiple positions is a bit overblown since Hays could, too. And personally, I like Hays defensive ability better than Slater. And O'Hearn has no business being in the OF, Hyde really should never pull that stunt again.

Obviously, Eloy has no place in the field.

The O's desperately miss Jorge Mateo and Westburg. They took a step back with Slater/O'Hearn manning that spot. And the catching position has just been so lackluster this year.

Aside from CF, there is weakness up the middle when Gunnar is having his yips. 

There is upside/hope, but with this bullpen it can ill afford to keep giving other teams free bases/extra outs. 

I'd say on the whole this is a below average defense. 

[Say O!]

22 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Mountcastle is average. O’Hearn, slightly below average.

Urias is well below average

Gunnar is above average with potential to be elite if he can cut down on the errors.

Cowser is an elite LF.  Average CF.

Agree with combo of Pappas and RZNJ assessments.

I would add two points which may be coloring perspective (1) O’s team was better defensively last year so the decline year-on-year is noticeable, and (2) aside from Gunnar at SS, Cowser in LF, and occasional Mullins catch in CF…there are not many WOW plays made by the defense and what feels like more “we should have made that catch or throw” plays this season.

[Otter]

Another concern for the defense moving forward is our next wave of young players (Mayo, Kjerstad, Basallo) are all bat first guys with questionable defense and/or positional fit.  I suspect it may be one reason Elias went heavy in the last two drafts on athleticism and defensive skills.

[Frobby]

Today’s game was pretty typical of what we’ve been seeing.

First play of the game, Lindor hits a bouncer near the 3B line. Urias fields it cleanly but has to load up for a long throw and Lindor is safe by a split second.  A 3B with a stronger arm (cough, Manny) probably makes that play.  Alternatively, it’s possible Urias makes that play if he chooses to throw as quickly as possible instead of pausing to load up.  

Fifth inning, runner on 1B, Harrison Bader decides to try to go 1st to 3rd on a single.   He stumbles and almost falls twice between 2nd and 3rd, but somehow he’s safe at 3B on a relay throw from Holliday.  The TV didn’t really show what happened, but it seemed like Holliday was asleep at the switch and didn’t make the throw immediately upon Bader’s stumble.  I still can’t believe they didn’t get Bader on that play.  It was almost a Jack Cust moment.  

Next play, JD Martinez hits a grounder right to Urias, seemingly tailor made for an inning-ending double play.   It takes a slightly funny hop that causes Urias to take an extra split second to glove the ball cleanly, but the feed to Holliday is perfect.  Holliday whirls for the pivot throw and loses the ball transferring to his throwing hand.  The result is that Bader scores from 3B and only one out is recorded. 

8th inning, runner on 1B and one out, the ball is hit to Holliday, who makes an okay but slightly high relay throw to Gunnar coming across the bag.  Gunnar has plenty of time (all day, really) but his throw is on the high side and Mountcastle apparently leaves the bag to catch it.  (The ump review occurred during a MASN commercial break  so the replays weren’t shown.  Thanks, MASN.)

Now, no errors were charged on any of these plays, and only one run scored as a result of them.   But all four were makeable, especially the last three, which absolutely should have been made.

The O’s are 28th of 30 teams in turning DPs, and have turned 28 fewer than the average team.  I can think of MANY DP opportunities they haven’t executed this year, including the two today.  Last year they turned 140; this year they’re on pace for about 87.   That’s killing us.

 

Edited August 22 by Frobby

[eddie83]

Jackson has a lot of work to do with his glove. I’m confident he will. Really hope Jordan can make it back. 
 

Feel good with Cowser and Cedric. Slater has been fine. Santander isn’t great but won’t hurt us much.
 

Really feels like the issues are currently about the infield.  

Edited August 22 by eddie83

[LA2]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Today’s game was pretty typical of what we’ve been seeing.

First play of the game, Lindor hits a bouncer near the 3B line. Urias fields it cleanly but has to load up for a long throw and Lindor is safe by a split second.  A 3B with a stronger arm (cough, Manny) probably makes that play.  Alternatively, it’s possible Urias makes that play if he chooses to throw as quickly as possible instead of pausing to load up.  

Fifth inning, runner on 1B, Harrison Bader decides to try to go 1st to 3rd on a single.   He stumbles and almost falls twice between 2nd and 3rd, but somehow he’s safe at 3B on a relay throw from Holliday.  The TV didn’t really show what happened, but it seemed like Holliday was asleep at the switch and didn’t make the throw immediately upon Bader’s stumble.  I still can’t believe they didn’t get Bader on that play.  It was almost a Jack Cust moment.  

Next play, JD Martinez hits a grounder right to Urias, seemingly tailor made for an inning-ending double play.   It takes a slightly funny hop that causes Urias to take an extra split second to glove the ball cleanly, but the feed to Holliday is perfect.  Holliday whirls for the pivot throw and loses the ball transferring to his throwing hand.  The result is that Bader scores from 3B and only one out is recorded. 

8th inning, runner on 1B and one out, the ball is hit to Holliday, who makes an okay but slightly high relay throw to Gunnar coming across the bag.  Gunnar has plenty of time (all day, really) but his throw is on the high side and Mountcastle apparently leaves the bag to catch it.  (The ump review occurred during a MASN commercial break  so the replays weren’t shown.  Thanks, MASN.)

Now, no errors were charged on any of these plays, and only one run scored as a result of them.   But all four were makeable, especially the last three, which absolutely should have been made.

The O’s are 28th of 30 teams in turning DPs, and have turned 28 fewer than the average team.  I can think of MANY DP opportunities they haven’t executed this year, including the two today.  Last year they turned 140; this year they’re on pace for about 87.   That’s killing us.

 

I wonder what our league standing was when Mateo was still manning 2nd base and Westburg 3rd. The new infield seems to have lost its rhythm, its sense of timing.

[spiritof66]

Here is the most recent SABR Defensive Indict, based on games through August 11. 

https://sabr.org/latest/sabr-defensive-index-rankings-released-through-august-11-2024/

The rankings of the Orioles match more than usual my own opinions. The outlier is CF, where I think Mullins is about an average defender. 

Here's where Orioles rank among AL fielders. (The AL and NL are ranked separately.) There is a threshold to qualify, so some guys (like Urias) are not ranked.
 

Overall defensive leaders: Of the top 25 defenders in the AL, Cowser is ranked 16th. He is the only Oriole in the top 25. (There are three BJs ranked among the top 25. Each of the other Eastern Division teams has one player on the list.)
Pitchers:  Of 38 qualifiers, Eflin is 11th, and Burnes is 38th (and last).
Catchers:  Of 18 qualifiers, Rutschman is 12th.
1B:  Of 12 qualifiers, Mountcastle third.
2B:  No Oriole qualified.
SS:  Of 16 qualifiers, Gunner is 6th.
3B:  Of 14 qualifiers, Westburg is 7th.
LF:  Of 11 qualifiers, Cowser is 1st.
CF:  Of 16 qualifiers, Mullins is 15th (ahead of only Judge).
RF: Of 12 qualifiers, Santander is 6th.
 

 

 

 

O

[webbrick2010]

I know I will be torched for this question but....

Is Gunnar Henderson the O's SS for the future?

Last night instead of getting in front of an easy ground ball he attempted to back hand it even though it was only a step, step and 1/2 to his right

His fundamentals are very poor.

I think we need to sign a glove first SS (Willy Adames) and move Gunnar to 3B

Flame away.

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

I know I will be torched for this question but....

Is Gunnar Henderson the O's SS for the future?

Last night instead of getting in front of an easy ground ball he attempted to back hand it even though it was only a step, step and 1/2 to his right

His fundamentals are very poor.

I think we need to sign a glove first SS (Willy Adames) and move Gunnar to 3B

Flame away.

It’s a fair question, but I’d still say the answer is no.  The advanced metrics have him at basically average: 0 OAA, +2 Rdrs, -1 Rtot, +5.8 UZR.  He muffs some routine plays but makes a fair number of difficult ones that many shortstops couldn’t dream of making, so on balance he’s more an asset than a liability at SS IMO.  I don’t really agree that he had time to get in front of that ball last night, though he certainly mishandled it and deserved the error.  

[webbrick2010]

Well I was looking at baseball Savant OAA, and there are 24 shortstops ranked ahead of him

I'm not sure you can build a championship (WS) team with that kind of SS.

Right now the Orioles are very weak up the middle, with none of C, SS, 2B or CF ranked in the top half of MLB

Cedric at +4 is pretty good as 18th in CF, Jackson has been holding own.

All in all this ties into Elias and his disregard for plus defenders.

[now]

I think Gunnar should get the JJ Hardy memo: Steady trumps flashy.

[ChosenOne21]

12 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well I was looking at baseball Savant OAA, and there are 24 shortstops ranked ahead of him

I'm not sure you can build a championship (WS) team with that kind of SS.

Right now the Orioles are very weak up the middle, with none of C, SS, 2B or CF ranked in the top half of MLB

Cedric at +4 is pretty good as 18th in CF, Jackson has been holding own.

All in all this ties into Elias and his disregard for plus defenders.

You can if his OPS is .930

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Well I was looking at baseball Savant OAA, and there are 24 shortstops ranked ahead of him

I'm not sure you can build a championship (WS) team with that kind of SS.

Right now the Orioles are very weak up the middle, with none of C, SS, 2B or CF ranked in the top half of MLB

Cedric at +4 is pretty good as 18th in CF, Jackson has been holding own.

All in all this ties into Elias and his disregard for plus defenders.

Derek Jeter has five rings.

[Il BuonO]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Derek Jeter has five rings.

He of multiple GG awards?