2024 Delmarva Shorebirds

[EdwinRip]

I don’t know how Mikol Hernandez is still playing baseball.  He is so awful.  

[glenn__davis]

On 5/27/2024 at 8:35 AM, RZNJ said:

No problem.  I have to needle you though.  I just googled “Braylin Tavera injury” and that was the first thing that it picked up.  I had no idea what his injury was either.  I guess we all missed it.

Guilty.  Frankly I've had no luck ever googling Orioles minor league injury news so I didn't even bother trying this time.

[Frobby]

On 5/27/2024 at 12:18 PM, RZNJ said:

In May so far.

Estrada (19).  766 OPS

*  *  *

Acevedo (21) 1.010 OPS (12 games)

Braylin Tavera 19) still out with sprained shoulder and needs to get it going as well but some good signs of progress.

Estrada 3 for 5 with a couple and 2 RBI today.  

Acevedo 2 for 3 with a walk and an RBI.

i had totally overlooked Acevedo’s red hot May until today when I noticed his overall OPS had risen to .787.  He missed about 10 days in late April and the first week of May.  He’s been on fire ever since he returned to action.  
 

 

[RZNJ]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

Estrada 3 for 5 with a couple and 2 RBI today.  

Acevedo 2 for 3 with a walk and an RBI.

i had totally overlooked Acevedo’s red hot May until today when I noticed his overall OPS had risen to .787.  He missed about 10 days in late April and the first week of May.  He’s been on fire ever since he returned to action.  
 

 

It might be nice to see a chain reaction with Beavers to Norfolk, Etzel to Bowie, and Acevedo to Aberdeen.    

Aron Estrada put up a 1.000+ OPS in the DSL in 2022 but was injured and so so last year in the FCL.  After an awful start at Delmarva he started to hit but without much power.  Now homers as a LH hitter the last two games.  Sunday a pull shot.  Tonight an oppo.  I’m hoping this is the start of a real breakout.  Not a big guy but well put together.   Sosa, Arias, and Tavera should be fun to watch progress.  Two years ago Estrada was the head of the class.

[CaptainRedbeard]

This is from a BA editor. Gibson’s 22 and in A ball, so not young for the level, but the numbers are very impressive now. 52 K / 15 BB in 33.1 IP. Good GB% and FIP/xFIP even better than his 3.24 ERA. And he’s at that level because it essentially his first pro experience.

Not sure how he went undrafted in 2022, but assuming an injury since he only had 2 IP in the CPX last year. That description above sounds like plus stuff. Will be keeping an eye on whether he gets moved to A+ soon.  

[Warehouse]

1 hour ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

This is from a BA editor. Gibson’s 22 and in A ball, so not young for the level, but the numbers are very impressive now. 52 K / 15 BB in 33.1 IP. Good GB% and FIP/xFIP even better than his 3.24 ERA. And he’s at that level because it essentially his first pro experience.

Not sure how he went undrafted in 2022, but assuming an injury since he only had 2 IP in the CPX last year. That description above sounds like plus stuff. Will be keeping an eye on whether he gets moved to A+ soon.  

Pitchers not drafted in first 20 rounds:

- John Smoltz

- Andy Petite

- Roy Oswalt

- Woody Williams

- Rob Nenn

- Dan Wheeler

- Steve Cooke

- Mark Buehrle

- Kenny Rogers

- Kirby Yates

- Ken Hill

- Esteban Loaiza

- John Montefusco

- Danny Darwin

-  Tom Candiotti

- Dan Quisenberry

- Bruce Sutter

 

 

 

[emmett16]

Big day for the Shorebirds.  8 runs on 11 hits.  Arias had a big day with 3 hits (2b & HR).  Mordan and Acevedo with 2 hits each. 

Edited June 9 by emmett16

[emmett16]

Big day for the big 3 at the top of the lineup

1. Sosa 2 for 2 1 2B 3R 3BB 

2. Estrada 3 for 4  1 2B 2R 1RBI

3. Arias 1 for 1 1 2B 2RBI 4BB

Looks like these guys are starting to get going.  All athletic guys that can run. All 19y/o.  I think they will be a fun group to keep an eye on. 

[RZNJ]

On 4/30/2024 at 9:05 PM, Tony-OH said:

We a re a little younger, but not significantly so. Just the fact that everyone has fell on their faces offensively to start the year is a disappointment to all. 

Honestly, it's a good thing I'm not in charge because I would be firing some low level hitting coaches and developmental coaches with the way the young international players have not been prepared for A-ball.

Good thing you didn’t fire any of those low level hitting and developmental coaches!   Sosa, Estrada, and Arias all making progress.  Tavera on rehab, coming back soon.   Tavera needs to join his buddies.

Cuevas and Miguel Rodriguez at FCL.  Liranzo just back and not looking overmatched at all.

Too many names to mention in the DSL off to good and great starts.  Disclaimer.  We love you Tony.   Don’t get mad.  Get even.  Just don’t go to the Josh Hart well again.  

 

 

[733baseball]

Valdez is still the fastest player in the organization. Faster than Bradfield. If he's truly starting to get on base more consistently, I'm curious to see where he finishes the year. 

[RZNJ]

9 hours ago, 733baseball said:

Valdez is still the fastest player in the organization. Faster than Bradfield. If he's truly starting to get on base more consistently, I'm curious to see where he finishes the year. 

.543 OPS last year in Aberdeen.   He’s 24.   They haven’t given up on him but I’m not paying attention until his PA are about 10 times what they are now (28).   I suppose if he keeps hitting he’ll go back up to Aberdeen.

BTW, what are you basing your opinion on that Valdez is faster?  Just curious.

Edited Sunday at 11:57 by RZNJ

[Tony-OH]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Good thing you didn’t fire any of those low level hitting and developmental coaches!   Sosa, Estrada, and Arias all making progress.  Tavera on rehab, coming back soon.   Tavera needs to join his buddies.

Cuevas and Miguel Rodriguez at FCL.  Liranzo just back and not looking overmatched at all.

Too many names to mention in the DSL off to good and great starts.  Disclaimer.  We love you Tony.   Don’t get mad.  Get even.  Just don’t go to the Josh Hart well again.  

 

 

I'm happy to see them doing well. But at the time, my comments were valid as none of the players, including the ones from the years before had adjusted well to Delmarva outside of Basallo and Bencosme to a lesser extent.

I did make me wonder if they were not being given the right development to prepare them for full season ball. 

We all should be happy that they have made some adjustments, or perhaps warmed with the weather, but I do know that it's still too early to run a victory lap yet. 

And you do a good job of following these guys, but I went to that Josh Hart well so often because you were so indignant that I would not call him a prospect and you would point out every time he had a decent week as your proof!

[733baseball]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

.543 OPS last year in Aberdeen.   He’s 24.   They haven’t given up on him but I’m not paying attention until his PA are about 10 times what they are now (28).   I suppose if he keeps hitting he’ll go back up to Aberdeen.

BTW, what are you basing your opinion on that Valdez is faster?  Just curious.

Eye test. I watch/work all of Aberdeen's games. 

[RZNJ]

21 minutes ago, 733baseball said:

Eye test. I watch/work all of Aberdeen's games. 

Ok. Cool.  What’s your opinion on Etzel’s speed and his defense in CF?

While we’re at it.  Bradfield’s defense in CF.   Thanks.

[Frobby]

On 5/15/2024 at 7:43 AM, Frobby said:

Though still very bad, the Shorebirds have been a little more competitive of late.  After starting off, 2-12, they’ve gone 7-11 since then to sit at 9-23.   

The biggest problem is the offense, last in the Carolina League at 3.09 R/G (league average is 4.54) and OPS at .578 (.654 is average).

The second biggest problem is defense, second worst in the Carolina League at 52 errors, .955 Fldg %.  A full 25% of the runs allowed by the Shorebirds have been unearned (41 of 161), also 2nd worst in the league.  

The pitching is respectable, 8th of 12 teams at 3.83 ERA (just above the 3.74 league average), but because of the defense, the team ranks 10th in runs allowed per game at 5.06 (4.55 league average).   One encouraging marker is that the staff is 2nd in K/9 at 11.1 and ranks 4th in. K/BB at 2.57.   I think it would be reasonable to infer that the staff ERA would be better if the defense were better. 

Individually, the only players who top the league average  of .654 OPS are 20-year old Angel Tejada at .676 (.266/.393/.383) and 19-year old Thomas Sosa at .656 (.220/.325/.330).   However, keep your eye on 19-year old Aron Estrada, who after an awful start, has a .944 OPS in May to reach .601 on the season.  Tejada also has been hot in May at .876.   Struggling prospect Braylin Tavera (.478) hasn’t played in the last three games; I’m not sure if he’s banged up or just getting a breather.   

Starting pitchers who are below the league average 3.74 ERA include 21-year old Luis De Leon (2.16 ERA, 0.880 WHIP), 14.0 K/9), 22-year old Nestor German (1.48 ERA, 0.986 WHIP, 10.7 K/9), and 20-year old Michael Forret (3.22 ERA, 1.030 WHIP, 12.1 K/9).  Riley Cooper (22)(2.06 ERA, 1.062 WHIP, 12.9 K/9) and Braxton Bragg (23)(2.70 ERA, 1.000 WHIP, 12.6 K/9) have spot started but pitched mostly in relief so far.   There are a few other pitchers who are interesting despite slightly higher ERAs but I’ll omit them in the interests of brevity.  

Overall, still a lot of work to do here, but at least there are signs of life.  




 

The above post from May 15 is a good one to revisit.

Record: 9-23 on 5/15, 16-19 since, 25-42 overall.   They started off 2-12, then 7-11, now 16-19.   Continually getting better, though not yet over the hump.

Offense: 3.09 runs per game as of 5/15 (32 games), 4.86 runs per game since them (35 games), now at 4.01 runs/game overall.   The team OPS has gone from .578 to .646, so roughly .708 over the last 35 games.  League averages are 4.54 runs per game (Delmarva now 10th of 12) and .662 OPS (Delmarva 8th at .646, so Delmarva has had a well above average offense over the last 35 games.

Defense: 52 errors, .955 fielding percentage, 41 unearned runs (1.28 per game) as of 5/15; 111 errors, .953 fielding percentage, 72 unearned runs (1.07 per game).  Still worst in the league on defense by a lot.  League average fielding percentage is .966, 2nd worst team is at .970, Shorebirds at .953.

Pitching: Was 3.83 ERA (8th) and 5.06 runs/game (10th) as of May 15, now at 4.40 ERA (10th) and 5.31 runs/game (last).  In the most recent 35 games, about a 4.92 ERA and a 5.54 runs/game.

So, in summary, the offense has been much better over the last 35 games, the defense has been just as terrible as before, and the pitching has gotten significantly worse.  The offensive climate of the league as a whole hasn’t changed much over the last 35 games, so it appears that the offensive improvement and pitching deterioration is real, not the result of changing conditions league-wide.   

I haven’t dug into the reasons for the pitching decline too deeply, but to state the obvious, Luis De Leon (2.16 ERA) was promoted just after May 15, Michael Forret (3.18 ERA) was promoted after June 1, and Nestor German (1.48 ERA as of May 15) missed a month with injuries and only had 4.2 IP over the most recent 35 games.  So, at least part of the explanation lies in personnel changes.