2024 Delmarva Shorebirds

[Frobby]

The Shorebirds are 2-12 and are being outscored by more than a 2-1 margin, 5.71 runs allowed per game to 2.79 runs scored.   The latter figure is worst in the lesgue by more than half a run.  

Two offensive bright spots are Aneudis Mordan (.881 OPS) and Thomas Sosa (.764).  Several of the big names like Leandro Arias (.495) and Braylin Tavera (.376) are really struggling.  

On the pitching side, the staff leads the Carolina League at 12.1 K/9 but they have the second worst ERA in the league.  It’s a little hard to tell why, as the numbers like H/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are all middle of the pack.   A number of pitchers are faring well, like Michael Forret (3.46 ERA but 0.692 WHIP and 10 straight scoreless innings), Riley Cooper (0.84 ERA) and Jacob Cravey (0.82).  Luis De Leon is off to a decent start at 2.53 ERA.

Overall, it’s a miserable start with the hitting being the biggest culprit.   Hopefully the hitters, who are the second youngest group in the league, will improve as the year goes along, or it will be a very long season.
 

 

[Tony-OH]

It's a very heavy International program offense since the Orioles rarely draft high school hitters. This is the first time many of these guys have hit in cold weather, so they get a bit of a pass so far. Saying that, the struggles are pretty disappointing, especially for Tavera and Arias, but they are at least not doing too bad in controlling the strike zone so far. Arias in the 7-day IL and hasn't played since April 13th. 

Sosa has hit a lot of doubles, but the K's are too high. He's been walking more this last week so that's good.  Acevedo has been a disappointment for me. I keep waiting for him to breakout, but I think he just may be who he is, a toolsy guy that just doesn't have enough hit tool.

Mordan can hit a little bit but doesn't have a position. The defense overall has been pretty bad too, with 4th most errors (25) in the Carolina League leading to 19 unearned runs and a lot of extra pitches.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The defense overall has been pretty bad too, with 4th most errors (25) in the Carolina League leading to 19 unearned runs and a lot of extra pitches.

I was actually surprised to see the Shorebirds weren’t dead last in errors and unearned runs allowed, though they’re near the bottom in both.  

[Hazmat]

At what point will it be reasonable to start drawing some conclusions about many of our international prospects and the level of talent at Delmarva? Mid season?  After a full season?

[Tony-OH]

12 hours ago, Hazmat said:

At what point will it be reasonable to start drawing some conclusions about many of our international prospects and the level of talent at Delmarva? Mid season?  After a full season?

I think you need to give them a full season. Some of these guys will need to repeat because they are young for the level and just need lots of professional PAs. 

Some will continue to fail, but the talented ones will keep getting chances for at least 700+PAs in A-ball.

[LookinUp]

On 4/22/2024 at 2:34 PM, Tony-OH said:

Mordan can hit a little bit but doesn't have a position. 

This is disappointing to hear.

[Frobby]

Jacob Cravey continues to be a bright spot for the Shorebirds.   3.2 scoreless last night, lowering his ERA to 0.61.   

[Tony-OH]

It honestly boggles my mind that every single Shorebirds offensive prospects has complete crapping the bed and we've started into May. I know they are young, but wow, Sosa, Tavera and Estrada to a lesser extent because he wasn't though of as highly have really struggled to make the jump from the FCL.

I'm learning a valuable lesson though about ranking these international players too high until they've proven themselves in Low-a ball at least. The track record of the international hitting prospects after Basallo, and Bencosme to a lesser extent has really been disappointing once they hit Low-A ball.

Whatever is being worked on in the DSL and FCL for hitting techniques really needs to be looked at because it's not translating to the field.

I think Koby Perez has done a great job overall, but he really needs some of these guys to start having some success above rookie ball.  It's still early, but man, every time I look at a box score I see another 0-fer with multiple Ks. 

I'm also realizing i need to wait until I see these guys in live games before ranking them so high based on the feedback I received because these guys who really not proving it at levels where it starts to really matter. 

[btdart20]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

It honestly boggles my mind that every single Shorebirds offensive prospects has complete crapping the bed and we've started into May. I know they are young, but wow, Sosa, Tavera and Estrada to a lesser extent because he wasn't though of as highly have really struggled to make the jump from the FCL.

I'm learning a valuable lesson though about ranking these international players too high until they've proven themselves in Low-a ball at least. The track record of the international hitting prospects after Basallo, and Bencosme to a lesser extent has really been disappointing once they hit Low-A ball.

Whatever is being worked on in the DSL and FCL for hitting techniques really needs to be looked at because it's not translating to the field.

I think Koby Perez has done a great job overall, but he really needs some of these guys to start having some success above rookie ball.  It's still early, but man, every time I look at a box score I see another 0-fer with multiple Ks. 

I'm also realizing i need to wait until I see these guys in live games before ranking them so high based on the feedback I received because these guys who really not proving it at levels where it starts to really matter. 

Is our approach to players in low A any different from other organizations?  Are we younger or maybe more international heavy?

[Tony-OH]

10 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

Is our approach to players in low A any different from other organizations?  Are we younger or maybe more international heavy?

We a re a little younger, but not significantly so. Just the fact that everyone has fell on their faces offensively to start the year is a disappointment to all. 

Honestly, it's a good thing I'm not in charge because I would be firing some low level hitting coaches and developmental coaches with the way the young international players have not been prepared for A-ball.

[glenn__davis]

Not trying to make excuses for them but I do think it will be interesting to see how this group in particular performs as the weather heats up.  It had been a pretty chilly spring weather-wise and I'm thinking most of these guys had never been north of Florida.  Baseball in the cold takes some getting used to.

[RZNJ]

Besides going from AAA to the majors, going from the complex leagues to low A is the biggest jump in baseball.  Patience.

[Warehouse]

Arias has been injured and started off with 15% walk rate, 6.7% swinging strike rate, and a home run in 33 PAs.  

Sosa, Estrada, and Tavera all have swinging strike rates below Norby’s 14.5%, despite their high K rates.  Note that this is using Fangraphs version of swinging strike % that excludes foul tips

[RZNJ]

With all due respect @Tony-OH , you say in an earlier post to give them all year and now say you would fire some developmental coaches if you were in charge, here on May 1.   Two years ago on June 1, you were calling out the Orioles drafting and developing after terrible starts by Cowser and Creed Willems.   

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, RZNJ said:

With all due respect @Tony-OH , you say in an earlier post to give them all year and now say you would fire some developmental coaches if you were in charge, here on May 1.   Two years ago on June 1, you were calling out the Orioles drafting and developing after terrible starts by Cowser and Creed Willems.   

I don't get everything right. I'm fine with you "calling me out" over some comments I made a few years ago. Feel free to find more as I'm sure there are more. Also feel free to not ask me any questions or read what i have to say about players and judge on your.

I may have been a bit harsh to suggest firing people, because we don't know whether it's scouting or development or both when it comes to the international/rookie league department struggle to have hitters find success above rookie league. Basallo of course is a huge hit, and Bencosme is a nice job, especially since he was a late bloomer.

Now while I see what you are doing here and trying to make me look impatient, it's more than the terrible starts by the first big crop. And I'm not saying that these guys are busts, just that their ascension to full season ball has been similar to other DSL/FCL grads outside of the two I mentioned.

Go take a look at Isaac De León, Anderson De Los Santos, Stiven Acevedo (my personal disappointment because I love his tools), Luis Gonzalez, Brayan Hernández, Angel Tejada, Erison Placencia, Rolphy Cruz, Moises Ramirez, Josué Cruz, and Mishael Deson. None of them were able to compete well out of rookie ball. And I won't have mention the million plus bust that is Maikel Hernandez.

Now there are varying talent levels amongst those guys, but the one constant is their almost complete inability to compete in A-ball of above. Not struggle, but sub .600 OPS numbers which to me means they were no ready to compete at this level.

So now we have Tavera (who has been doing better of late and controls the strike zone), Sosa (good gap power, but Ks are becoming a red flag), Estrada and Velasquez (who actually got a nice bonus) all struggling. Tavera and Sosa certainly have tools to work from and their stories are far from written, but what I'm talking about is whatever they're doing to get guys ready to compete at this level is not working very well.

Sure, they're young, but they're not significantly younger than other Carolina League teams. 

So I'm not saying this new wave of hitters are busts after a month, but I am saying that every single guy going through DSL and FCL teams besides Basallo and Bencosme (Luis Valdez to a lesser extent but was a much older guy late signee) have absolute struggled above the FCL. 

So at some point, the Orioles need to look internal on how they are developing hitters coming out of this program or maybe even how they scouting them. I understand how hard the system is over there to hit on kids at 14 and 15 years old, and we all should expect most of these players to fail at some point in the minor leagues, but I would like to see a few more be able to have success in A- and A ball before maybe having AA be the fail point.