Colton Cowser 2024

[Tony-OH]

I find it interesting that Cowser's batting run value is -2, dragged down by his -6 RV against changeups. with 40.9% whiff rate against changeups and a 40.2 % against breaking balls, he's really going to have to work hard on picking up spin. His defense has been a huge part of his value according to statcats.

 

I'm actually a little surprise that his arm value is 0 vs a negative value despite his plus, plus arm strength. He's the Coby Mayo of throwing accuracy from the outfield and runners have to know this by now. Runners attempt to advance on him -1% less than MLB average and have a normalish success rate of 98%. Actually looking at these stats, he's about right on par with Santander and even Mullins.

Cowser's 10 OAA makes him tied for 6th in all of baseball for Outfielder OAA. He has 4 OAA going straight back which is tied with the Angel's Jo Odell for the best in all of baseball.

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm aware.  

But .245 doesn't look the same as .255 does.  .295 doesn't look the same as .305.  .396 doesn't look the same as .406.

 I'm an old school baseball fan in some respects and I can't help it that this is one of them.  Hitting under .250 kinda sucks.

I’ve got to say, I rarely look at BA anymore.  OPS is by far more relevant to me, and has been for at least a decade, maybe two decades.  There’s just too many guys who have decent BAs but never walk and have no power.  

[Sports Guy]

More success vs a lefty last night. Good to see the improvements he is making in the areas where his stats showed he was struggling earlier in the season.

He keeps hitting the ball hard.

[Mooreisbetter27]

Cowser is really strong.  That triple he hit last night looked like it would be a fly out to left.  He basically one handed it and it kept carrying.  I think the double also surprised the outfielder with how hard it was hit and it got over his head really quick.  He also doesn't have too many cheap homeruns.  When he hits them, he and we know it.  

Edited August 21 by Mooreisbetter27

[ChuckS]

A lot of red there.  I think we have to take the bad with the good.  I can accept the high whiff and K percentage, with the hope and expectation that he will improve incrementally. 

If he struck out less, he would be a superstar.  No doubt about it.  For now we have a really solid, two-way player.

[Moose Milligan]

Expecting him to make a huge jump next year. 

[RVAOsFan]

2024 MLB ROY odds: Jackson Merrill closing in on Paul Skenes | FOX Sports

Per this article Cowser is pulling away as the favorite to win AL ROY. 

[Otter]

32 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Expecting him to make a huge jump next year. 

Agreed.  I think many people are forgetting he's a rookie, and having a great year for a rookie.  And yes, he has some things to work on but how many rookies don't??  I expect him to make some improvements in his deficiencies and be an All-Star next year.

[Sports Guy]

On 8/19/2024 at 3:50 PM, Tony-OH said:

I find it interesting that Cowser's batting run value is -2, dragged down by his -6 RV against changeups. with 40.9% whiff rate against changeups and a 40.2 % against breaking balls, he's really going to have to work hard on picking up spin. His defense has been a huge part of his value according to statcats.

 

I'm actually a little surprise that his arm value is 0 vs a negative value despite his plus, plus arm strength. He's the Coby Mayo of throwing accuracy from the outfield and runners have to know this by now. Runners attempt to advance on him -1% less than MLB average and have a normalish success rate of 98%. Actually looking at these stats, he's about right on par with Santander and even Mullins.

Cowser's 10 OAA makes him tied for 6th in all of baseball for Outfielder OAA. He has 4 OAA going straight back which is tied with the Angel's Jo Odell for the best in all of baseball.

 

I wish we had splits on his lefty stats and numbers vs off speed stuff in terms of numbers through June vs numbers since July 1.  He has definitely gotten better.

The key is improvement and he has shown improvement.

His struggles are similar to what Gunnar went through last year. Remember, we didn’t want Gunnar up vs lefties and part of the reason I didn’t like the Rangers matchup was all the lefties they had..but Gunnar had a good series vs lefties and has really taken off this year.

Cowser has a chance to be similar imo.(as Moose was eluding to)

[G54377]

Maybe Mayo could win next year and we could have a 1990s Dodgers run.

[sportsfan8703]

On 8/19/2024 at 3:50 PM, Tony-OH said:

I find it interesting that Cowser's batting run value is -2, dragged down by his -6 RV against changeups. with 40.9% whiff rate against changeups and a 40.2 % against breaking balls, he's really going to have to work hard on picking up spin. His defense has been a huge part of his value according to statcats.

 

I'm actually a little surprise that his arm value is 0 vs a negative value despite his plus, plus arm strength. He's the Coby Mayo of throwing accuracy from the outfield and runners have to know this by now. Runners attempt to advance on him -1% less than MLB average and have a normalish success rate of 98%. Actually looking at these stats, he's about right on par with Santander and even Mullins.

Cowser's 10 OAA makes him tied for 6th in all of baseball for Outfielder OAA. He has 4 OAA going straight back which is tied with the Angel's Jo Odell for the best in all of baseball.

 

Good stuff.  This is why the leadoff role works for Cowser.  More fastballs.  

[emmett16]

I posted a comparison of Gunnar and Cowser earlier in this thread.  Here we are through 424 PAs of rookie season(s):

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=hendegu01&t=b&year=2023#35-141-sum:batting_gamelogs

Gunnar .235 / .320 / .776 19 HR 46BB 114K

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cowseco01.shtml
 

Colton .245 / .323 / .765 18HR 38BB 123K

Edited August 21 by emmett16

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Good stuff.  This is why the leadoff role works for Cowser.  More fastballs.  

Is there evidence that leadoff hitters get more fastballs?

[Tony-OH]

47 minutes ago, emmett16 said:

I posted a comparison of Gunnar and Cowser earlier in this thread.  Here we are through 424 ABs of rookie season(s):

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=hendegu01&t=b&year=2023#35-141-sum:batting_gamelogs

Gunnar .235 / .320 / .776 19 HR 46BB 114K

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cowseco01.shtml
 

Colton .245 / .323 / .765 18HR 38BB 123K

Cowser of course is 15-months older than Gunnar, but I'm not going to lie, I would not have expected their numbers to be so close at that many PAs. I don't expect Cowser to become an impact hitter like Gunnar because of his struggles against curveball and off speed, but he has the tools to be a very good hitter for a long time in this league.

[Mooreisbetter27]

24 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Cowser of course is 15-months older than Gunnar, but I'm not going to lie, I would not have expected their numbers to be so close at that many PAs. I don't expect Cowser to become an impact hitter like Gunnar because of his struggles against curveball and off speed, but he has the tools to be a very good hitter for a long time in this league.

And if he continues to be a top 10 fielder in the outfield, then he has some pretty signicant value.  I gotta admit it's wild to see how good he is in the outfield after last year.  I know it was in a handful of games, but he looked pretty bad out there.  Arm aside, he looks phenomenal roaming the outfield.