Sarris @The Athletic: Burnes #1, G-Rod #6

[Moose Milligan]

https://theathletic.com/5426812/2024/04/19/mlb-starting-pitcher-fantasy-baseball-ranking/ 

Quote

Eno Sarris’ updated MLB starting pitcher rankings: Rodriguez, Peralta move into the top 10

Speed is the name of the game. Just as major-league teams are working on models that can help them make decisions faster, so do public analysts trying to help people beat the line, win that overall prize, or at least beat their college friends in that fantasy league.

In the effort to make better decisions faster, we have a few statistics that can aid our efforts:

• Fastball velocity stabilizes quickly — three starts should reliably predict the rest of the season.
• Relatedly, Stuff+ becomes meaningful after as little as one start, at least when it comes to fastballs and sliders.
• Strikeout-minus-walk rate is one of the most powerful small-sample tools.

 

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Burnes:

 

Stuff+ told us before the season that Burnes had a great curveball that he could feature more, so it shouldn't be a surprise that he's done exactly that in Baltimore. He's also seen his fastball velocity return to 2022 levels. The result has been vintage Burnes, at a time when it seems like all the aces are falling around him. Long-term park factors are funky in Baltimore — with the new dimensions, Burnes should easily put up a low-threes ERA with plenty of strikeouts.

 

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G-Rod:

 

Like with this teammate Burnes, you can expect Rodriguez to beat this ERA projection. He now has two fastballs and two secondaries that are elite in terms of physical characteristics, so it's a full arsenal. Even using last year's data to improve the sample size, he's shown above-average command of four pitches, too. The only question mark is the fact that he lacks a slider. The cutter isn't great — overuse of that pitch early last season is what got him in trouble — and he hasn't consistently thrown a hard breaking ball. Otherwise, he's golden Grayson.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 19 by Moose Milligan

[Frobby]

Lacks a slider?   When he’s pitching well, his slider is very good.  

[ArtVanDelay]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Lacks a slider?   When he’s pitching well, his slider is very good.  

Statcast calls it a cutter.

[Frobby]

Just now, ArtVanDelay said:

Statcast calls it a cutter.

Well, last year he had both a cutter and a slider.  In the first two months, he was having trouble commanding the slider and was using the cutter way too much.  When he returned, he’d almost completely ditched the cutter and had regained command of the slider.   So he’s definitely got a slider.  

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Well, last year he had both a cutter and a slider.  In the first two months, he was having trouble commanding the slider and was using the cutter way too much.  When he returned, he’d almost completely ditched the cutter and had regained command of the slider.   So he’s definitely got a slider.  

This is how statcast classifies his pitching repertoire. It seems he has gone from a slider to a cutter this year. Much less horizontal drop. Not sure why since his slider was very effective last year. Both his fastball and cutter have been hit a bit this year when you look at XWOBA.

[Sports Guy]

What is the ranking Moose?  Is Sarris saying Burnes is the best and GRod is the 6th best overall starter or is it Stuff+?

[ArtVanDelay]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, last year he had both a cutter and a slider.  In the first two months, he was having trouble commanding the slider and was using the cutter way too much.  When he returned, he’d almost completely ditched the cutter and had regained command of the slider.   So he’s definitely got a slider.  

Right, he has a slider but he’s shelved it so far this year. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, ArtVanDelay said:

Right, he has a slider but he’s shelved it so far this year. 

That seems really weird to me.  That’s been a pretty good pitch for him for years.   I’ll have to watch his next start more closely.   

[Moose Milligan]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What is the ranking Moose?  Is Sarris saying Burnes is the best and GRod is the 6th best overall starter or is it Stuff+?

Yes.

It's his starting pitcher rankings.

 

[Frobby]

Here’s a quote from Grayson after his Tuesday start:

"Fastball command wasn't really there," he said. "I thought that could have been a lot better. But being able to pitch with the off-speed was a big step forward, being able to land stuff for strikes. Also, put guys away with sliders in the dirt."

He hasn’t ditched the slider.   Maybe he’s just throwing it differently?   
 

Edited April 19 by Frobby

[Sports Guy]

It’s getting to the point where I’m going to be surprised when GRod gives up even 4 runs in a start.

Its obviously going to happen but I think he has reached that point of expecting an ace level start every time out.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It’s getting to the point where I’m going to be surprised when GRod gives up even 4 runs in a start.

Its obviously going to happen but I think he has reached that point of expecting an ace level start every time out.

I thought going into the season Grayson Rodriguez had a good shot to be the Orioles best starter even with Burnes and Bradish on the team. If Bradish can return back to form the Orioles starting rotation might feature three ace-like pitchers. I've never seen that in my lifetime watching Orioles baseball.

[Satyr3206]

I watched two GRod starts this year and I'm pretty sure he threw some sliders.

[Satyr3206]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I thought going into the season Grayson Rodriguez had a good shot to be the Orioles best starter even with Burnes and Bradish on the team. If Bradish can return back to form the Orioles starting rotation might feature three ace-like pitchers. I've never seen that in my lifetime watching Orioles baseball.

I have, but I'm a Geezer.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

2 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I have, but I'm a Geezer.