Promote Liz

[Sports Guy]

Pretty quick to make that comment on a guy you've never seen pitch. Someone who some people liked better than Loewen this past offseason. Do you even know if he might be a better prospect than Loewen. Are you prepared to trade Loewen while his value might still be high?

Sure, int he right deal.

Liz can't make it out of the 5th or 6th IP.

I think he has future star set up man or even closer written all over him...Certainly very valuable but i don't think it will be a starter and because his numbers are so good, you could probably put him a centerpiece in a deal for a guy like Nick Johnson.

[Lt Melmo]

Wow, no sense. For a bunch of guys(cough SG cough) who think we need to trade for future talent and build up the farm system, why the hell would we trade a guy who's coming into his own as a legit prospect(and who always *was* a top 10 organizational prospect, let's not forget)? And if you don't think he'll ever be able to make it past the 5th, what makes you think any other team will?

God forbid a prospect is a year older than he should be. SG, why can't he be *our* future setup man or closer? Isn't your whole idea to trade our established players so we can compete later?

And what in the world makes you think his stamina can't improve? That's just nuts. And y'know, if he can't go further than 6 innings, if he can do what he's doing right now on the ML level over 6 innings, that's still a damn good 4th or 5th starter.

Jeez, for serious, there isn't a single player in the O's organization that is safe from trade discussion on this board. Someone here had it right a couple weeks ago: Every time an Oriole sucks, someone here says trade him; every time an Oriole does well, someone says trade him...

[Ohfan67]

Jeez, for serious, there isn't a single player in the O's organization that is safe from trade discussion on this board.

And that's the correct sentiment IMO. If you can get a young ML talent by packaging some of these prospects, then the O's should do it. Liz seems extremely exciting, but there is a very low probability that he is going to make it (nothing against him, just the odds). If the O's can trade him (plus others?) to improve the team for now and the next few years, then the O's should do it.

[mweb]

They're the same age. If he was a better prospect why isn't he here now?

Well he's considered to be the better prospect on this site's ratings. At least going into the year, and I don't think much has happened to change that.

And I guess Fio was a better prospect than Nick last year because he was the one called up.

[Lt Melmo]

And that's the correct sentiment IMO. If you can get a young ML talent by packaging some of these prospects, then the O's should do it. Liz seems extremely exciting, but there is a very low probability that he is going to make it (nothing against him, just the odds). If the O's can trade him (plus others?) to improve the team for now and the next few years, then the O's should do it.

I'm sorry, what evidence shows that he isn't likely to make it? He's ranked as a top 10 prospect, and if he continues to dominate and progress at a steady rate, he'll be in the top 5. So why in the world wouldn't he be able to make it to the show?

And again, I'll say it: if you guys really think he's playing better than he is, or that he won't make it, why would a professional scout think of him differently?

[Ohfan67]

I'm sorry, what evidence shows that he isn't likely to make it? He's ranked as a top 10 prospect, and if he continues to dominate and progress at a steady rate, he'll be in the top 5. So why in the world wouldn't he be able to make it to the show?

And again, I'll say it: if you guys really think he's playing better than he is, or that he won't make it, why would a professional scout think of him differently?

I think you're misunderstanding what I'm saying. I'm not saying anything about his core talents, I'm saying that a relatively high percentage of top pitching prospects get seriously injured, never learn to adequately command their pitches, never develop out pitches, etc. and thus do not have decent major league careers (many basically have no major league career). It has little to do with the pitchers raw talent and obviously that's certainly true regarding injury. The article that Drungo posted uses a lot of data and analyses to make this point (I think that's what the article says, I didn't read it tonight!). Some of the posters might be saying that Liz is not really a super stud, but that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying regardless of his talent he is likely to blow out his arm, not progress as projected, etc., so the highest probability of "success" from Liz and other pitching prospects is to trade them for young ML talent that is already reaching their potential. There's just a higher probability that they are going to have a successful career. Many teams trade these players as they approach arbitration or free agency years.

[utvolzac]

I'm sorry, what evidence shows that he isn't likely to make it? He's ranked as a top 10 prospect, and if he continues to dominate and progress at a steady rate, he'll be in the top 5. So why in the world wouldn't he be able to make it to the show?

And again, I'll say it: if you guys really think he's playing better than he is, or that he won't make it, why would a professional scout think of him differently?

So what? The minor league system is choked full of former Top 10 prospects who've never panned out. Guys ranked #1 in their organization have gone on to be busts before. Being in the top 10 doesn't mean he's a lock for anything.

If he can be packed for a young, PROVEN mlb talent, why wouldn't you trade him.

Not that I'm for trading him, I haven't seen him yet, but he's not untouchable.

[bigbird]

So what? The minor league system is choked full of former Top 10 prospects who've never panned out. Guys ranked #1 in their organization have gone on to be busts before. Being in the top 10 doesn't mean he's a lock for anything.

If he can be packed for a young, PROVEN mlb talent, why wouldn't you trade him.

Not that I'm for trading him, I haven't seen him yet, but he's not untouchable.

Exactly......Wouldn't it have been nicve to have packaged that Riley, can't miss kid a few years back for a young major league talent?

[NewMarketSean]

The difference is, Riley was dominating at AA and one of the top pitching prospects in all of the MLB. Liz is not.

[utvolzac]

I was looking back at the Orioles Hangout top prospect lists in the archives.

1999

1. Matt Riley, SP

2. Calvin Pickering 1B

3. Jayson Werth, C

4. Brian Falkenborg, SP

5. Luis Matos, OF

6. BJ Ryan, RP

7. Darnell McDonald, OF

8. Sean Douglass, SP

9. John Stephens, SP

10. Rick Elder, 1B

200

1. Keith Reed, OF

2. Richard Stahl, LHP

3. Edward Rogers, SS

4. Luis Rivera, RHP

5. Papy Ndungidi, LF

6. Juan Figueroa, RHP

7. Josh Towers, RHP

8. Larry Bigbie, OF

9. Tripper Johnson, 3B

10. Erik Bedard, LHP

After 6-7 years of development, the majority of these guys haven't even made it to the major league level, much less contribute. Odds are that a guy like Liz will be just another name in the system in a few years. If you can get a proven major leaguer for him, you do it.

I've always believed that the point of having a good farm system was to package prospects to bring in proven talent. You take a select few who you really believe in (guys who are among the top 100 prospects in baseball) and hold onto them. The rest you package and use to upgrade the team.

[Avsfan]

I'm not happy with the drop in K's...and increase in BB.

Has he become too fixiated on his breaking stuff?

[RShack]

OK - maddeningly! (duh - ) Doggone fingers move faster than my brain sometimes.

Well... it *is* a funny word, in that you hear it said more than you see it written. I read a lot, and I don't know if I've *ever* seen it written before. I had to stare at the mis-typing for a while, just to figure out what it should have been...

[mikezpen]

Avsfan, maybe Liz sees some other Orioles pitchers that made it to the Majors w/no command of their breaking pitches and no change-up-read Daniel Cabrera and also Erik Bedard to a degree-and watched them struggle. And maybe the kid would rather develop these things now. If so, he's bring smart even though it creates a big drop-off in his numbers.

[Ironusher]

You talk about trading young players for "proven players". Just remember the Glenn Davis trade. Talk about shooting yourself(the team) in the foot.

[MurphDogg]

You talk about trading young players for "proven players". Just remember the Glenn Davis trade. Talk about shooting yourself(the team) in the foot.

That's like comparing apples and washing machines. Liz is at SINGLE A. The Glenn Davis trade involved three major leaguers. I'm tired of hearing it brought up constantly.