Speculating on how the O's handle the pitching logjam

[Moose Milligan]

Yeah, I'd keep Suarez in the rotation as long as he's producing.

It's nice to have some options coming along with Bradish and hopefully Means.  I'm under no illusion that it'll fix the bullpen completely but it's a good start.

[Going Underground]

Tyler Wells is also on the IL  Doubt he comes back when eligible on April 28th. Haven't heard many updates about him. 

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Going Underground said:

Tyler Wells is also on the IL  Doubt he comes back when eligible on April 28th. Haven't heard many updates about him. 

Ah jeez, totally forgot about Wells. Lol. 

But I will say, I don't want him anywhere near the rotation. They need to just read the writing on the wall and make the guy a permanent reliever like they did with Baumann and Akin. Unless something dire happens to the rotation. I just think it's the only way to keep him healthy. Plus the bullpen could really use him. 

Edited April 26 by interloper

[HowAboutThat]

I agree with each bullet point. 
my own humble addenda are:

Mike always seems to find a nugget on the trash pile. No one saw Coloumbe or Suarez coming, or Lopez( who was good enough to get us Povich and Cano) before that, and each one is a Mensch.

Of course he also picked up Ramirez, for reasons known but to God.

Mike hoards assets.  He doesn’t want to dump anyone, not even Ramirez, so Baumann is safe.

Mike won’t make any irreversible moves, except cutting Ramirez, until he has a good idea what Bradish and Means will do going forward.

Maybe WE can make a trade from our pitching depth?
 

Good times, folks.

[Ripken]

Bradish up, Wells activated to pen, one of Irvin/Suarez to pen, Baumann out, Ramirez out.

Perez up, one of Akin/Tate out.  

I'd keep Means down as long as possible.

[EdwinRip]

1 hour ago, Aristotelian said:

I think "well" is a bit of an overstatement. He did give up 5 runs to three outs across three appearances recently, and the two outings since then were not clean.

Akin currently has a FIP of 1.11. He’s struck out 15 and walked 3 in 10 innings without yielding a homer.  I consider that well.

[Bemorewins]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Here's what I think Elias will do, assuming the following pitchers are ready to be added in this order, and that Suarez makes one more start this Sunday. 

1. Means activated, Irvin to the bullpen to act as our much-needed long reliever. Ramirez DFA'd. 

2. Perez activated, Akin optioned. This allows them to get a look at Perez without losing Baumann for now. I think the O's are wary of DFAing Baumann this early in the season, as much as some of us would like to see it.

3. Bradish activated, Suarez moved to bullpen, Tate optioned. O's try Suarez as a strikeout-oriented late(ish) inning guy. If that doesn't work out, Tate can come back up. But I think it should be a priority to find a reliever who can get Ks against RHP in the backend of the bullpen. 

Tough calls and none of them are guaranteed to work honestly. But this would let them take a look at Means, Perez, and Bradish (and Suarez in the pen) without the risk of losing anyone except Ramirez. Can Perez and Suarez be as successful as Akin and Tate? Extremely debatable, admittedly. But I think the O's will hedge towards keeping everybody, and kicking tougher decisions down the road a little. 

What would you do? 

I don’t see any kind of “logjam”. That would imply some sort of challenge with having too much talent in one place/spot.

What we have is a hodgepodge of mediocre to below average pitchers who are very interchangeable in terms of their talents (or lack there of). Of the pitchers that you mentioned, probably Bradish (who we don’t know about right now coming off the elbow injury) and maybe Suarez (very small sample size) are any good. 

The rest …. They can be swapped out for one another and I don’t think any real difference is made. I hope Means can be the John Means of 2021. But the reality is that was a long time ago at this point. I don’t think that it is very probably that he will make it through the season and pitch effectively into October and be healthy the whole time. That’s probably pie in the sky/wishful thinking at this point.

[LGOrioles]

6 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Akin currently has a FIP of 1.11. He’s struck out 15 and walked 3 in 10 innings without yielding a homer.  I consider that well.

This. I don’t get the Akin going down talk (even though it seems more based off his option remaining than performance). Right now Akin is arguably our 4th most trusted reliever (can argue with Webb) based off his usage and his peripherals are clearly in the top 4 with Cano, Kimbrel, and Coulombe. He might not be a setup guy but he’s a solid piece to have in the middle innings.
 

Akin’s K-BB% is nearly double that of Baumann’s in both of their careers as relievers. He K’s more, walks less, and gets more chases and whiffs.
 

Keeping Baumann over Akin even for a week isn’t a move that winning teams make. Not to trash him, but Baumann is just not good, so who cares if he gets claimed? He’s not trusted at this point late in close games unless the bullpen is overused, so if you lose him and need a replacement later in the year you have Heasley, Charles, and Tate (if he gets optioned). Then you also have Wells who should be a bullpen guy when he comes back. Having the flexibility is good but keeping one of your worst relievers just because he doesn’t have an option doesn’t seem like a good way to solve a log jam. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

35 minutes ago, EdwinRip said:

Akin currently has a FIP of 1.11. He’s struck out 15 and walked 3 in 10 innings without yielding a homer.  I consider that well.

Agreed, Akin is pitching too well to be optioned until there’s no other choices. Tate should certainly be optioned before him. The only reason I could see Akin needing to be optioned is if BOTH Means and Irvin end up in the pen (with Bradish, Kremer and Suárez starting). That’s possibly the best 5 SP right now if they believe Suárez > Means/Irvin. In which case you really can’t have 5 lefty RP and only one RHP to go with Kimbrel and Cano.

Otherwise, they should carry 4 lefty RP (with one of Means/Irvin as the long man) before optioning Akin. 

[interloper]

19 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t see any kind of “logjam”. That would imply some sort of challenge with having too much talent in one place/spot.

What we have is a hodgepodge of mediocre to below average pitchers who are very interchangeable in terms of their talents (or lack there of). Of the pitchers that you mentioned, probably Bradish (who we don’t know about right now coming off the elbow injury) and maybe Suarez (very small sample size) are any good. 

The rest …. They can be swapped out for one another and I don’t think any real difference is made. I hope Means can be the John Means of 2021. But the reality is that was a long time ago at this point. I don’t think that it is very probably that he will make it through the season and pitch effectively into October and be healthy the whole time. That’s probably pie in the sky/wishful thinking at this point.

I disagree with the entirety of this post. 

[foxfield]

32 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t see any kind of “logjam”. That would imply some sort of challenge with having too much talent in one place/spot.

What we have is a hodgepodge of mediocre to below average pitchers who are very interchangeable in terms of their talents (or lack there of). Of the pitchers that you mentioned, probably Bradish (who we don’t know about right now coming off the elbow injury) and maybe Suarez (very small sample size) are any good. 

The rest …. They can be swapped out for one another and I don’t think any real difference is made. I hope Means can be the John Means of 2021. But the reality is that was a long time ago at this point. I don’t think that it is very probably that he will make it through the season and pitch effectively into October and be healthy the whole time. That’s probably pie in the sky/wishful thinking at this point.

I don’t see anything that said the Orioles had too much pitching talent. Or why you would read it as such. Simply another way for you to drop your belief that until the Orioles have the three best SP in baseball, they are not serious WS contenders. 
 

And while that is admittedly an overstatement of your point, I think it’s you who has a pie in the sky view. 

[LGOrioles]

As for what I would do, assuming Means comes back, I would go with:

Kimbrel, Cano, Coulombe, Akin, Webb, Tate, Perez, Irvin

Once Bradish comes back, I would option Tate and test out Suarez in the BP. Once Wells is ready, my thoughts are one of Perez/Irvin go depending on the groups health/performance at the time (as well as Bradish and Means’ health/performance). Could also be Suarez or Webb, which would end up something like:

Kimbrel, Cano, Coulombe, Wells, Akin

3 of Suarez/Webb/Perez/Irvin

All 4 of those guys in the second tier have showed flashes of being assets in a bullpen (or rotation in Suarez case) so it would depend on health/performance when Wells comes back. It’s a solid group without a real untrustworthy guy like we have right now (Baumann, Ramirez) or did last year with Fuji. They could definitely use another set up RHP with some swing and miss though. Having Cano/Coulombe/Wells to take over the 7th inning would be a luxury. 

[Bemorewins]

13 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I don’t see anything that said the Orioles had too much pitching talent. Or why you would read it as such. Simply another way for you to drop your belief that until the Orioles have the three best SP in baseball, they are not serious WS contenders. 
 

And while that is admittedly an overstatement of your point, I think it’s you who has a pie in the sky view. 

Yes that is an extreme exaggeration. I’m glad that you admitted to it. lol

On a more serious/factual note, what I said is that I am hopeful that we can cobble together an effective rotation and pen until the deadline. And then use pieces from our abundance of position player talent/prospects to add meaningfully where necessary.

But when you use words like “logjam” that implies too much or more than what is required. We don’t have that in terms of pitching talent on the team or in the organization at this time. That is not an exaggeration but a fact.

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, interloper said:

I disagree with the entirety of this post. 

Bemorewins wants 5 #1 starters 8 closers and an all-star at every position.   Hey, sounds good.

[thegardner]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

I don’t see any kind of “logjam”. That would imply some sort of challenge with having too much talent in one place/spot.

What we have is a hodgepodge of mediocre to below average pitchers who are very interchangeable in terms of their talents (or lack there of). Of the pitchers that you mentioned, probably Bradish (who we don’t know about right now coming off the elbow injury) and maybe Suarez (very small sample size) are any good. 

The rest …. They can be swapped out for one another and I don’t think any real difference is made. I hope Means can be the John Means of 2021. But the reality is that was a long time ago at this point. I don’t think that it is very probably that he will make it through the season and pitch effectively into October and be healthy the whole time. That’s probably pie in the sky/wishful thinking at this point.

Have you seen Burnes pitch?