The best development of 2024 so far?

[wildcard]

I think we hit the jackpot with David Rubenstein.    MVO.

[Orioles West]

Cowser’s super hot streak was my first favorite development of the season.

However, Westburg’s defense at second or third — and thus far is more consistent at the plate than I was expecting this year.

Irvin’s current run on the mound has also surpassed my 2024 expectations for him, and is an honorable mention at this point of the spring.

[Orioles West]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I think we hit the jackpot with David Rubenstein.    MVO.

Absolutely. And I should have mentioned him as well.

I’ll feel even better if they announce some extended contracts in the front office, starting with Elias.

[Gunnar]

Everything except Kimbrel.

[OriolesMagic83]

Westburg and Irvin.  Westburg can be added to the core going forward.  I think most of us, me included wanted to put Irvin in the bullpen when we talked about the rotation.  After the trade for Burnes, Irvin was definitely there.  When Means and Bradish started the year on the IL, it was how long until Irvin can go to the bullpen.  Right now it's hard to say Irvin is less than #2 on the rotation.

[Royle]

BBRef has Westburg leading the majors in Win Probability Added (WPA).

[Philip]

Honestly, I think the best way to illustrate this embarrassment of riches is to turn the question around, and ask what are the biggest disappointments.

Aside from Holliday’s temporary setback, it’s mainly crickets.

Injury problems, but none insurmountable, Kimbrel not being his 25-year old self, but not insurmountable, Hyde’s lineups causing head scratches, but not preventing a 26-12 record, and so on.

For me the biggest disappointment is the awful broadcasting and camera work.

And I can live with that.

[Filmstudy]

Assuming it can only be 1 player, Westburg would be tops with Cowser a close second.

But to me, the most significant step forward has been the starting rotation solidifying for 5+ spots which includes trade for Burnes, Irvin emergence, GRod dominance, Kremer, Bradish health, Means, and even Suarez spot starts.

Worst developments are the dropoffs in play from Mullins, Santander, and Hays.

[Filmstudy]

Blocked out Holliday as one of the big disappointments as well.

Any of the 4 (Mullins, Santander, Hays, and Holliday) may play their way out of disappointment status the rest of the way.

 

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, Filmstudy said:

Blocked out Holliday as one of the big disappointments as well.

Any of the 4 (Mullins, Santander, Hays, and Holliday) may play their way out of disappointment status the rest of the way.

 

My guess is at least two of them will.  Don’t ask me which two.  

[Cuellar35]

For me it is the development of our starting pitchers becoming a true top 5 rotation, especially at the depth.  It seems the one thing most "experts" thought might be the Birds weakness this year was our starting pitching depth.  Over the past few weeks they have definitely carried us.  Despite his start last night I was at the game in Cincinnati last Saturday night.  Means was masterful with his ability to throw first pitch strikes. The anti Ubaldo Jimenez!

[waroriole]

I expected this from Westburg. I didn’t expect Gunnar to look like the MVP yet though. 

[Billy F-Face3]

I love Jordan Westburg. I wish I had the time to look up my earliest posts about him to see how glowing I was when he was on the minors. This offseason I posted I thought Irvin would stick in the rotation.

So far, so good.

[Billy F-Face3]

52 minutes ago, waroriole said:

I expected this from Westburg. I didn’t expect Gunnar to look like the MVP yet though. 

Same. This describes my mentality on the topic very well. Gunnar is well ahead of schedule.

[Warehouse]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

It’s still early, and Westburg could hit some cold spells, but as I watch him play every day, I don’t think there’s anything flukey going on here. 

 

His K% of 19.9% is a bit flukey relative to his whiff rate of 32.7%, his CSW% of 28.4%, his SwStk% of 14.6%, his CStr% of 13.8%. Over a full season, no player has ever had plate discipline metrics that looked like that and achieved a K% in the teens (some have had single digit CStr% and gotten decent K% despite high whiff rate.

Really, this discrepancy is entirely drive by March/April. Westburg had a 17.6% K% despite a 34.6% whiff rate.  How? Well, he had an unusually low foul rate with less than 2 strikes.  Additionally, he had a huge split in his whiff rate with less than 2 strikes vs with two strikes.  This could just have been a really great 2 strike approach, but there wasn’t any evidence of this from past years.

So what has happened in May so far? Well, his foul rate with less than 2 strikes has normalized. Now, this normalization has also decreased his whiff rate to 27.7%. Additionally, the gap between whiffing with less than two strikes and two strikes has completely closed.  His K% in May has been 26.3% and his xwOBA has been .291.

Westburg’s K% has outperformed his contact peripherals going back to his time in the minors and he is also likely to improve as he gains more experience.  He won’t end the year with a K% this low though; 22%-25% is more realistic to hope for.