The 2024 Trade Deadline

[bpilktree]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

That’s a way to interpret the data. Another way is that Burnes and Grayson have been saving the rotation. 

It’s not just 19 run game though. 14 to Astros, 8 to Astros, 10 to Guardians, 11 to Rangers, 9 to Cubs. The last 4 times through the rotation we have had at least one blowup/no -competitive start going back to June 21 (first game against Astros).

I hope that you are right about who will be pitching in the playoffs. Normally you need four starters for a 7 game series.

Thankfully the Yankees pitching has been worse. Rodon has gone back to being the terrible guy that he was last year. Gil has regressed big time since that Dodgers start, and Cole has been a mess since his return.

You usually do give up some high scoring games because like I said you don’t have 5 good starters and 7-8 good bullpen guys.  Most teams have a couple good starters and about 5 solid bullpen guys the other guys are not great and give up runs.  When you are behind you pitch your C level guys in the pen.   In the last month The Phillies who lead mlb in ERA have had 11 games in their last 25 games where they gave up 6 runs or more.  In that timespan we have done it 9 times.  The Yanks have done it 12 times. The Guardians 9 times.   The Dodgers 10 times.  

I always say if you get half your starts from your 1-3 type pitchers and win 2 out of 3 of their starts.  Then the other half of the games with your back end rotation guys you win half the games you win 95 games which is a great season.  Right now we have 46 of the 91 starts just over half from Burnes, GRod, Bradish, and Means all who I consider top of the rotation guys.  We are 33-13 in there starts or .717 win percentage.  The back end guys we are 24-21 or .533.   I am pretty confident they add at least a number 3 starter to pencil in the rotation by July 31st and he just has to be a decent starter not elite.  

[Greg Pappas]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree said:

You usually do give up some high scoring games because like I said you don’t have 5 good starters and 7-8 good bullpen guys.  Most teams have a couple good starters and about 5 solid bullpen guys the other guys are not great and give up runs.  When you are behind you pitch your C level guys in the pen.   In the last month The Phillies who lead mlb in ERA have had 11 games in their last 25 games where they gave up 6 runs or more.  In that timespan we have done it 9 times.  The Yanks have done it 12 times. The Guardians 9 times.   The Dodgers 10 times.  

I always say if you get half your starts from your 1-3 type pitchers and win 2 out of 3 of their starts.  Then the other half of the games with your back end rotation guys you win half the games you win 95 games which is a great season.  Right now we have 46 of the 91 starts just over half from Burnes, GRod, Bradish, and Means all who I consider top of the rotation guys.  We are 33-13 in there starts or .717 win percentage.  The back end guys we are 24-21 or .533.   I am pretty confident they add at least a number 3 starter to pencil in the rotation by July 31st and he just has to be a decent starter not elite.  

Yeah, we are currently on a 101 win pace.  

[sportsfan8703]

Fedde with a good start today. Only threw 90 pitches. I bet the CWS hope to deal him before his next start post ASB. 

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Your post was factually inaccurate on multiple accounts.  

Yes, I've checked their July ERA.  I've also checked their monthly ERA for the last 9 months and they are remarkably consistent.  They allowed half their ERs on the month in two outings.  You don't think those numbers will normalize?  I tend to think they will return to the mean.  Maybe I'm wrong, but again - they been consistent for 9 months straight, so I see no need to go into panic mode.  

It's no surprise that the worst stretch of baseball they've played this year resulted in allowing 6 runs per game.  You are saying that this is the new normal and they will continue to play this poorly?   I don't see that.  I see it for what it is.  A SSS during a bad stretch of baseball.  That tends to happen in a 162-game season. 

Your post was meant to be insulting. Like I didn’t know what I was talking about or was making things up. 

But as the facts that I provided showed the ERA jumped from May to June. I believe it was around 2.84 for May and 3.73 for June and now it’s at around 6 for the month of July so far.

The starters who comprised much of the last 9 months have changed. Currently we are being carried by Burnes and to some degree Grayson. Suarez looks like he has gotten himself righted. Kremer is a box of chocolates  and number 5… Well when you combine Irvin with Povich you get almost a negative 1.0 WAR, needless to say that is below league average and not good.

I get that we don’t agree about the team’s pitching but you don’t have to be condescending and claim I’m not being accurate or making stuff up. 

[emmett16]

2 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Your post was meant to be insulting. Like I didn’t know what I was talking about or was making things up. 

But as the facts that I provided showed the ERA jumped from May to June. I believe it was around 2.84 for May and 3.73 for June and now it’s at around 6 for the month of July so far.

The starters who comprised much of the last 9 months have changed. Currently we are being carried by Burnes and to some degree Grayson. Suarez looks like he has gotten himself righted. Kremer is a box of chocolates  and number 5… Well when you combine Irvin with Povich you get almost a negative 1.0 WAR, needless to say that is below league average and not good.

I get that we don’t agree about the team’s pitching but you don’t have to be condescending and claim I’m not being accurate or making stuff up. 

It was not meant to be insulting.  
 

You stated our pitching staff is now depleted and performing poorly because we lost Means & Bradish.  My first point was to show they have, in fact, not contributed much this year.  Means similarly didn’t contribute much last year. 
 

The second point was to show that they are, in fact, not playing .500 since the Astros series.  They are 8-6 since that series.  
 

The final point was to show there has not been a massive drop off in pitching in June as you stated.  
 

I agree the numbers are not good in July 10 days into the month.  I Imagine they will normalize. 
 

Sorry you took offense. 

[G54377]

As far as Fedde goes, I really have a hard time getting over trading for a guy that was straight garbage for basically his entire 20's. He goes to the KBO and finds a magic genie? What happened?

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, G54377 said:

As far as Fedde goes, I really have a hard time getting over trading for a guy that was straight garbage for basically his entire 20's. He goes to the KBO and finds a magic genie? What happened?

He learned how to throw a sweeper.

 

[G54377]

8 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He learned how to throw a sweeper.

 

Ah yes I see that on his statcast. Do we believe he can sustain this?

[eddie83]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Fedde with a good start today. Only threw 90 pitches. I bet the CWS hope to deal him before his next start post ASB. 

I don’t know that will happen but in “general” I don’t think there will be too many options better than him. That doesn’t mean he will definitely be good but I don’t see many quality options in this market. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

13 minutes ago, G54377 said:

As far as Fedde goes, I really have a hard time getting over trading for a guy that was straight garbage for basically his entire 20's. He goes to the KBO and finds a magic genie? What happened?

Fedde is throwing his change up a lot more now (from 4% to 20% of the time) and the spin rate on his change up has increased. The spin rate is 1,708 RPM this compared to 1,516 in 2022.

I also share your concern that the Orioles will trade for Fedde and he reverts back to his Nats performance. I'll trust Elias and Sig to decide if he's worth it or not.

 

 

[Frobby]

11 hours ago, wildcard said:

He was not a major league pitcher and was due to go for TJ surgery.    

Steve Pearce was sold by the Yankees to the Orioles in 2012, traded from the Rays to the Orioles in 2016 and from Toronto to Boston in 2018.   All intra-division deals.   

[Osornot]

Right now we have Burnes and Grayson. IMO we are boxed in this year - hold your nose and be willing to go with short-term and rentals.   We need SP and BP.

Forget Crochet - he has garnered almost as many threads as Cease did - that is sad and I have never been too impressed with Cease. Fedde?

[Just Regular]

I've hoped for awhile for Jorge Mateo to get to be the Giants SS, with Elias and Farhan agreeing on something helpful to Baltimore.

Logan Webb just took some ERA damage after Brett Wisely couldn't knock down a bad hop ball.    Wisely is the rare bird who has been getting regular MLB shortstop run who was not a minor league shortstop, not a move many can do.

They aren't out of the NL race because no one is, and Jorge Mateo might be one of the world's 30 or 40 best shortstops this summer.

[Roll Tide]

From Roch

Quote

Any new rumors on the trade front?
Same old ones. There’s talk of a possible reunion with Marlins All-Star lefty Tanner Scott. The Orioles have talked to the White Sox about starter Garrett Crochet. The asking price apparently is high, as you’d expect. The controllability through 2026 brings tremendous appeal, especially with the Orioles proceeding next year without the elbow-surgery trio. But Crochet’s innings need to be managed carefully this summer and the Orioles don’t need another excuse to dig into their bullpen.

 

[sportsfan8703]

7 hours ago, G54377 said:

As far as Fedde goes, I really have a hard time getting over trading for a guy that was straight garbage for basically his entire 20's. He goes to the KBO and finds a magic genie? What happened?

Learned to throw the sweeper. His splitter got better. Fedde looks likes a taller Bradish. Just 2-3 mph slower with his FB, but Fedde throws a sinker. 

Big dude. Big frame. 6’4”. 

Watch his highlights on YouTube. He pitched a good game yesterday.