The 2024 Trade Deadline

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Starters vs. relievers - some of the fun watching is Elias I think really does have a blank canvas for games 3 and 4 of the playoffs.

Burnes and Grayson even without Bradish still give a nucleus better than some other playoff clubs, and to be Raysian is just to Arm Barn your way through the rest of it.

If we get pushed to an AL wildcard game 3, there's no third pitcher on the roster I don't really have someone up in the bullpen behind even if for exaggeration's sake they yield a couple 1st inning baserunners.      Today's roster, maybe Dean Kremer and Cade Povich just both warm up in the pregame.

Hopefully we outrun the Yankees and then there's nothing too tough to think about until ALDS Game 3, should the injury gods spare the big two.

I would rather be Astrosian than Raysian as to be Raysian is probably going to end in postseason failure/disappointment every single time. We might get a few banners being Astrosian…lol

[sportsfan8703]

3 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I would rather be Astrosian than Raysian as to be Raysian is probably going to end in postseason failure/disappointment every single time. We might get a few banners being Astrosian…lol

Houston sold their soul though on top of having a once in mlb history trade go down with Verlander.  Roberto Osuna's DV.  Spider Tack.  Trash Cans.  They literally won at all costs.  

[Bemorewins]

12 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Houston sold their soul though on top of having a once in mlb history trade go down with Verlander.  Roberto Osuna's DV.  Spider Tack.  Trash Cans.  They literally won at all costs.  

Well, minus the cheating and DV part. I want the to set the bar for banners, not for being “almost good enough”.

[Just Regular]

I doubt Elias would be much moved to act a week before the deadline when asks by Sellers still skew high but I guess it is worth noting the Orioles play their Marlins series July 23-25.

Who Tanner Scott and AJ Puk and Burch Smith and Vinny Nittoli play for in any given 3-game series probably doesn't make a game of difference, and the division probably won't come down to 1 game.

 

[Sports Guy]

 

[Can_of_corn]

10 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

 

I think it's possible that he knows the O's aren't willing to sign a pitcher to the type of contract it would take to keep Burnes.

Edited July 18 by Can_of_corn

[Greg Pappas]

Using the MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Trade Candidates list and write-ups that was mentioned somewhere in a thread earlier, here is a quick list of guys that could be viable trade targets (in no particular order):

• RH Reliever Lucas Erceg (29), A's -- Formerly an infield prospect with the Brewers, he only converted to the mound in 2021. The 6’3″ righty may be new to pitching in pro ball, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at his 3.09 ERA, 27.6% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate, 50% grounder rate and 0.84 HR/9. Erceg is averaging 98.4 mph on four-seamer and 98.5 mph on his sinker, coupling those fastballs with a mid-80s slider and low-90s “changeup.” At 29, he’s four years older than Miller despite having similar service time and identical windows of club control. The asking price won’t be as high as Miller, who’s simply been a more dominant reliever, but it’s also hard to believe the A’s plucked Erceg from Milwaukee in exchange for only cash last year. His trade value has exploded since then.

• LH Starter Tyler Anderson (34), Angels -- Anderson is headed to his second All-Star Game at age 34. That’s largely a reflection of the veteran southpaw’s excellent 2.81 ERA over 112 innings. This is the kind of production the Halos envisioned when they signed him to a three-year, $39MM free agent deal over the 2022-23 offseason. Anderson’s first season in Orange County was much tougher, as he allowed well over five earned runs per nine. All 29 other teams passed on the chance to take on the remainder of Anderson’s contract via waivers last August.  While the run prevention and the All-Star nod have raised Anderson’s stock over the past few months, he probably has less trade value than fans might anticipate. Anderson has mediocre strikeout (16.8%) and walk (10.3%) rates. He’s averaging a career-low 89.2 MPH on his fastball. There’s certainly value in the kind of stability Anderson has provided, though teams aren’t likely to surrender much prospect capital if they’re also taking on his $13MM salaries for the next year and a half.

• RH Reliever Dylan Floro (33), Nationals -- Rental relievers are always in demand, and Floro has both pitched well. The 33-year-old is earning $2.25MM and has pitched to a 2.06 ERA with a 20.5% strikeout rate and 6.4% walk rate. He’s not going to last the whole season without allowing a home run, as is currently the case, but even with some HR/FB regression, Floro has looked solid.

• RH Reliever John Brebbia (34), White Sox -- After an awful stretch in mid to late May, Brebbia has been the Sox’ best reliever and quietly been one of the best relievers in the game. That might generate a few eye rolls, but it’s not hyperbole. Since June 1, he’s posted a 0.98 ERA with a gaudy 37.5% strikeout rate and 5.6% walk rate. It’s only 18 1/3 innings, but Brebbia has his season ERA down to 4.38, and the K-BB profile is genuinely interesting (29.6 K%, 5.9 BB%). He’s on a one-year, $5.5MM deal with a mutual option for 2025. Mutual options are almost never exercised, so he’ll be treated as a pure rental and perhaps a deceptively attractive one.

• RH Closer Pete Fairbanks (30), Rays -- Fairbanks has been Tampa’s closer for a while now, with 25 saves last year and 15 so far this year. But his track record as an excellent reliever goes back farther than that. Since the start of 2020, he has tossed 170 1/3 innings with a 2.75 ERA, 33% strikeout rate and 10.1% walk rate. He and the Rays signed a modest extension in January of 2023, one that pays him $3.666MM over the 2023-25 seasons with a club option for 2026. That option has a $7MM base salary but incentives and escalators, as well as a $1MM buyout. The Rays don’t need to trade him with that extra control but it would be in their M.O. to make him available before the contract expires.

• RH Closer Kyle Finnegan (32), Nationals -- Under club control through the 2025 season, Finnegan, the Nationals’ closer, is earning a $5.1MM salary.  After struggling with walks early in the season, the hard-throwing Finnegan has reined in his command and pitched brilliantly. Over his past 32 innings, Finnegan touts a 1.69 ERA, 28.3% strikeout rate and 5.8% walk rate. He’s saved 23 games already this year (after saving 28 last year) and averaged 97.2 mph on his heater. Finnegan does have a propensity for pitch clock violations, one of which led to a lamentable walk-off loss to the Rockies this season when it occurred with the bases loaded. Be that as it may, he’s a viable leverage option based on his repertoire and results.

• LH Starter Yusei Kikuchi (33), Blue Jays -- Kikuchi is one of the top rental starters on the market. After a dominant showing in March/April/May, he hit a roadblock in June. He’s bounced back with four runs and an 18-to-2 K/BB ratio across 13 innings (two starts) in July. Kikuchi has a flat 4.00 ERA this season but a strong 26.1% strikeout rate and outstanding 5.4% walk rate. Since incorporating a new-look curveball into his arsenal last June, Kikuchi has a 3.77 ERA, 27.1% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate and 40.8% grounder rate in 212 1/3 innings. That’ll play in any rotation.

•  RH Starter Erick Fedde (31), White Sox -- He reached the majors in 2017, pitched in parts of six seasons as a National while posting a mid-5.00s ERA, and went to reinvent himself in the Korea Baseball Organization. Reinvent himself he did. Fedde posted a flat 2.00 ERA in South Korea, won KBO MVP honors and returned to North American ball on a two-year, $15MM contract with the South Siders. It’s perhaps the best move of rookie GM Chris Getz’s tenure to date.  Brandishing a new split-changeup and harder, more horizontal sweeper than the slider he used in D.C., Fedde has burst back onto the MLB scene as not just a serviceable back-end starter but a playoff-caliber arm. In 111 1/3 innings, he’s pitched to a 2.99 ERA with a 21.6% strikeout rate (just shy of league-average) and a terrific 6.6% walk rate. He’s kept the ball on the ground at a 46.5% clip, avoided hard contact very nicely, and left little doubt that he can help any contender down the stretch. Fedde’s deal is evenly distributed. He’s earning an eminently affordable $7.5MM both this year and next. He’s gone from MLB afterthought to bona fide deadline trade chip who should net the White Sox a legitimate top prospect (plus some secondary pieces).

• LH Closer Tanner Scott (30), Marlins -- Speaking of which: a flamethrowing closer who’s an impending free agent on a last place team? Scott might be the most quintessential trade candidate on the summer market. He’s not as good as his 1.42 ERA, as that belies a grisly 14.9% walk rate. Command has long been an issue for Scott, but he did walk a career-low 7.9% of hitters just last year while fanning more than a third of his opponents. Scott throws gas, keeps the ball on the ground and misses bats at a plus rate. His $5.7MM salary isn’t exorbitant. The Marlins are going to trade him, barring an injury. It’s just a question of where.

• RH Closer/Reliever Carlos Estevez (31), Angels -- Estevez should draw plenty of trade interest coming off his Reliever of the Month honors in June. The Angels closer is amidst a streak of 13 straight scoreless appearances. Aside from a rough couple weeks in mid-April, he’s been a force at the back of the Los Angeles bullpen. Estevez owns a personal-best 2.79 ERA across 29 innings. He’s striking out 26.2% of opponents while walking fewer than 4% of batters faced. After saving 31 games a year ago, he’s 16-19 in locking down the ninth inning this season. Estevez is playing on a $6.75MM salary and will head back to free agency next winter.

Edited July 18 by Greg Pappas

[Roll Tide]

@Greg Pappas I mentioned Brebbia as a second player in a Crochet or Fedde deal. I think he would be a nice addition. 

[Sports Guy]

Erceg was a favorite of mine in the offseason and he has continued to look very good.  The BB rate is the one issue.

[interloper]

10 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

 

It's just an educated guess and nothing that we all haven't been saying here all year. 

[webbrick2010]

What's are all the GMs wating for. Lets make some deals all ready!

[25 Nuggets]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Erceg was a favorite of mine in the offseason and he has continued to look very good.  The BB rate is the one issue.

So Erceg is to Miller as Fedde is to Crochet?

The Orioles could get Erceg and Fedde for a heckuva lot less than the other two.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

So Erceg is to Miller as Fedde is to Crochet?

The Orioles could get Erceg and Fedde for a heckuva lot less than the other two.

Yea that’s a good way of looking at it.

Maybe you get 80% of the production for 50% of the cost?

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

So Erceg is to Miller as Fedde is to Crochet?

The Orioles could get Erceg and Fedde for a heckuva lot less than the other two.

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea that’s a good way of looking at it.

Maybe you get 80% of the production for 50% of the cost?

Could definitely see Elias taking this route. And it would be a pretty defensible route if you kept your top 3. 

That said, boy, it sure seems like the move is to roll into the postseason with the most talent you can get. And you can get more talent than anyone in the game. 

Going to be interesting. 

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Erceg was a favorite of mine in the offseason and he has continued to look very good.  The BB rate is the one issue.

Erceg would be a big pickup.  Miller would cost one of the big 3 and be a no go for that reason for me.  Any guesses what Erceg would cost?