Surprise! Eaton getting rocked

[df1570]

Is three hours a day not enough of a platform to grind your ax?

SJ asked me questions and responded to something I wrote.

Holy cow, I'm not allowed to reply?

Yesterday when I didn't reply in eight minutes someone got mad and accused me of dodging him.

Sheesh.

This is a tough f***ing league.

[Fairfax Bird]

BTW Randy Wolf just hurled 6 shutout innings wth 6 K's against the the team with the best offense in the AL yesterday...

Hamilton was the only one to get a hit off him.

I know, it's just ST. I'm sure Adam Eaton will do the same thing his next start...

Randy Wolf wasn't going to sign with us. In order for a deal to be made both sides need to agree.

[Fairfax Bird]

SJ asked me questions and responded to something I wrote.

Holy cow, I'm not allowed to reply?

Yesterday when I didn't reply in eight minutes someone got mad and accused me of dodging him.

Sheesh.

This is a tough f***ing league.

This is an act isn't it? I mean this isn't really what you are like is it? I live in Westminster now and lived in Northern Virginia so basically I don't get WNST, but is this what your show is like? Is it like the Rush Limbaugh of sports, just a lot of meaningless screaming?

I'm amazed that you call yourself a journalist and you have 3 hours a day to talk sports. There are literally thousands of people on this site who have a better understanding of baseball and how to build a franchise. I guess you and the owner of the station are like two peas ...

[JBugaboo]

Another pitcher who may not have wanted to sign with us... but this is the guy I wanted the Orioles to get:

http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1160697&srvc=home&position=1

Not that his situation is that much different from Rich Hill. It's just that this guy looks great and Hill is hurt again.

Brad Penny signed a 1 yr deal, and relatively cheap at that.

[JBugaboo]

I'm amazed that you call yourself a journalist and you have 3 hours a day to talk sports. There are literally thousands of people on this site who have a better understanding of baseball and how to build a franchise. I guess you and the owner of the station are like two peas ...

Drew and Nestor are two knowledgable people (actually quite nice) who cannot stand losing an argument.

Come to think of it, Rush Limbaugh is a knowledgable person who cannot stand losing an argument... he ends up spewing stuff out of his mouth a lot too. Maybe there is a connection after all?

[df1570]

This is an act isn't it? I mean this isn't really what you are like is it? I live in Westminster now and lived in Northern Virginia so basically I don't get WNST, but is this what your show is like? Is it like the Rush Limbaugh of sports, just a lot of meaningless screaming?

I'm amazed that you call yourself a journalist and you have 3 hours a day to talk sports. There are literally thousands of people on this site who have a better understanding of baseball and how to build a franchise. I guess you and the owner of the station are like two peas ...

It's not 3 hours a day. It's 4 hours a day.

Don't worry, though. The Orioles say I only have one listener. My damage-ability is pretty slim given that note.

I agree with you on one point. I'm starting to think there ARE thousands of people here on the OH who have a better understanding of baseball, marketing and how to build a franchise than the folks who have been running the club at OPACY.

We agree on that.

[SrMeowMeow]

It's not just wins, but QS as well. Wolf had 18 QS last season out of 33. That's 18 games when he pitched 6 innngs or more and gave up 3 runs or less.

Had we signed Moyer, we would have had another 19 QS performer on our team.

And Braden Looper had 15 QS last season out of 33. So if we had signed two of those players there's 33-37 games and then you add Jeremy Guthrie's 19 out of 30 and you have 52-56 good chances for the Orioles to win by the first three members of their rotation.

Last year Baltimore only got 60 QS out of their entire pitching staff only better than Texas' 54. The Rays and Red Sox got 82 each so around 80-85 should be our goal...

As for our retreads, Adam Eaton had 10 out of 19 last season and Hendrickson had 4 out of 19.

Now the Eaton figure shocked me a little, so maybe there is some hope there... But Hendrickson is just a horrible choice for the rotation no matter how you look at it. Had we signed Wolf I think we could have got 15 QS out of him at least and possibly more considering he got better as his arm strength returned. Uehara and Hill hopefully could provide 12-15 each.

So I guess as long as Uehara and Hill are productive, this won't be a terrible rotation even if Eaton is in it. But if Hendrickson has to be put in at all for whatever reason, look out. Still a pitcher like Wolf or Moyer could have got 15-17 QS or more in most likely with less question marks unlike Hill and Uehara who could realistically only combine for 20 depending on health/performance.

Right now we are looking at about 70 QS for our rotation as it consists now if everyone performs to potential and like last season...

So just to clarify, you really do think the difference between Eaton and Wolf is between five and eight wins?

[BaltimoreTerp]

I agree with you on one point. I'm starting to think there ARE thousands of people here on the OH who have a better understanding of baseball, marketing and how to build a franchise than the folks who have been running the club at OPACY.

We agree on that.

Epic fail in comprehension.

[SrMeowMeow]

So the reason this guy can't just get bent and banned is because that's what he wants? or something?

[Mackus]

BTW Randy Wolf just hurled 6 shutout innings wth 6 K's against the the team with the best offense in the AL yesterday...

Hamilton was the only one to get a hit off him.

I know, it's just ST. I'm sure Adam Eaton will do the same thing his next start...

I've already said you can make a decent case to prefer Wolf over Uehara.

But signing two guys to multi-year deals would be a very poor decision. You've gotta realize that. I don't even like the deal for Uehara for two years very much.

And there is no way Wolf would accept a 1-year deal to play here. We would've needed to offer an extra year and more money per year to get him to come here.

So, to sum up your arguments:

Wolf over Uehara - maybe

Wolf and Uehara both for 2 years - terrible

Wolf would accept a 1-year deal here - impossible

[Mackus]

So the reason this guy can't just get bent and banned is because that's what he wants? or something?

Probably because he hasn't broken any board rules.

[waroriole]

So the reason this guy can't just get bent and banned is because that's what he wants? or something?

I think he's funny. In a laughing at you way as opposed to a laughing with you way. Also, it's funny how some people just keep feeding his fire.

[JTrea81]

I've already said you can make a decent case to prefer Wolf over Uehara.

But signing two guys to multi-year deals would be a very poor decision. You've gotta realize that. I don't even like the deal for Uehara for two years very much.

And there is no way Wolf would accept a 1-year deal to play here. We would've needed to offer an extra year and more money per year to get him to come here.

So, to sum up your arguments:

Wolf over Uehara - maybe

Wolf and Uehara both for 2 years - terrible

Wolf would accept a 1-year deal here - impossible

How is having two pitchers giving us 30 QS combined terrible? As I said, we need to get to that 80-85 QS#. Are we so sure that Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman will all be ready in 2010 and that the Orioles won't try to sign any Hendrickson types if they aren't?

Besides you can always trade Guthrie, Wolf or Uehara to make room for the other guys. It's not like these guys aren't moveable, unless you have no confidence in MacPhail being able to trade them or wanting to...

[Fairfax Bird]

How is having two pitchers giving us 30 QS combined terrible? As I said, we need to get to that 80-85 QS#. Are we so sure that Matusz, Arrieta and Tillman will all be ready in 2010 and that the Orioles won't try to sign any Hendrickson types if they aren't?

Besides you can always trade Guthrie, Wolf or Uehara to make room for the other guys.

I would love to see ANYTHING in print that gives you the slightest inclination that Wolf was ever interested in coming here. He flat out wanted to pitch on the west coast. He wasn't coming here. You can stomp your feet for him all you want but the Orioles would have had to throw stupid money at him for him to come here. Stupid as in we would be stupid to throw that much at a mediocre pitcher.

[SilentJames]

You don't read very well. Or else, you're just combative to be combative.

I wrote - today, in fact - that I wouldn't have given Lowe $60 million. So going on and on about that is kind of senseless because I wouldn't have given him $60 million. That said, I don't run the Orioles. MacPhail does. Someone in Atlanta felt him worthy of $60 million. As you all like to say, "they're the baseball people -- they must know what they're doing."

I never even got to discuss Lowe's situation with Andy when I brought it up in person. His face turned gray when he realized it was me and he mumbled the "age demographic" line and scurried over to the soda table where he remained under the protective eye of one of the team's PR folks.

I would have pressed him though for the REAL answer. "Did you want Lowe but was he too expensive?" Or, "Did you have no interest in him at all...think he doesn't have it any longer no matter what the cost?" Or, "Did you contact him but the combination of age and price was too much?"

Obviously, I didn't get to ask that because he's under an order from the higher-ups to not speak with me. That does the fans a lot of good -- those seeking to hear the club explain how and why they make decisions about personnel that the fans bankroll by going to the games.

Who knows, if on day one of free agency the O's would have courted Lowe and offered him 3 yrs for $32 mm, he might have taken it. I have no idea. No one does. He may have wanted to go to Atlanta all along.

We'll never know the answers because the team doesn't field any tough questions and certainly won't answer them.

The same questions apply for Garland, essentially. "Why not?" in other words.

Further proof you don't read: I never said give Garland 3-4 years...for a "declining pitcher". He got ONE year from Arizona. Did Andy offer him 2 years and $15mm for his services? That's what I suggested. I think that would have been fair. He'll have a better resume and record in 20 starts with the D'Backs than Hendrickson, Hill and Eaton combined. That is, if Hill ever gets to pitch.

Ultimately, this isn't really even about Lowe and Garland -- those are just two names I threw out there because they do have quality. Far, far more quality than anyone we're trotting out there this year with the possible of 17-career-wins Guthrie. Throw out any other two names you want and bring them in, as long as they can get people out and aren't giving up three home runs in one inning or have an ERA of 6.59 by mid June.

You can bet your (rear end) Derek Lowe and/or Jon Garland wouldn't have a 6.59 ERA after 12 starts this year, I don't care if they pitch in Ripken Stadium.

So, it's not about names of pitchers.

It's about the team's decision to put the entire franchise and the fan base on hold for one, two or three years -- or however long it takes for these rock star young pitchers to come up, get acclimated and start getting people out on a regular basis in games that matter.

What's everyone supposed to do until 2011 when these kids come up and become Steven Tyler, Robert Plant and Steve Perry? Is everyone just supposed to flock out to the ballpark to watch the team go 60-102? And enjoy it...because they get a free t-shirt or a bobblehead or a free ticket on their birthday?

They could have signed a couple of pitchers in the off-season - of quality (yes, they would have cost money...they have PLENTY of it...that's why they started the TV network, remember?) - to bridge the gap between now and rock-star-arrival just so the team is semi-competitive and the fans somewhat get their money's worth.

Instead, this COULD be a train wreck if the starting pitching collapses and it didn't have to be this way. The fans deserve better. That's probably my whole point. The fans deserve better. MUCH better, in fact.

So the real issue remains THIS: What should the fans do this season? SJ, you - despite some of your reading issues - strike me as a very smart guy. Explain to me why the fans should go out and support the team with their money when you take into consideration the following: not bringing your best 25 guys to the majors in April -- signing these turd re-treads -- giving your left field job away to a guy without as much as a try-out and, most importantly, essentially admitting you've been jaking it throughout the last couple of off-seasons as it relates to improving the team, instead leaning on this gem: "When the team starts to get good, then we'll improve it by spending the people's money we've been taking for the last few years."

If your answer is, simply, "yes, the fans should go to the games and support the team" -- then just say that. It's an acceptable answer.

ON Lowe:

Lowe got a four year $60 million deal. And you are saying that he might have come here if the Orioles had offered him less? Does that make any sense at all? If anything the Orioles would have had to offer him more. Moreover, Why would we want him when he is pushing 40 in a division that is like comparing the SEC to the WAC as far as offensive ability.

You can't just say "I don't care if he was pitching in Ripken Stadium" the world doesn't work that way, Dodger Stadium, in fact many stadiums in the NL west are EXTREME pitcher's parks. The fact that Lowe's ERA was almost two runs per game HIGHER away from Dodger Stadium and his batting average against was near .300 away from Chavez Ravine DOES mean something. Especially when he would be moving to a division that favors hitters, with stronger offenses and smaller hitter-friendly parks.

To ignore that is to ignore the reality of Derek Lowe.

On Garland:

Once again you seem to be ignoring Garland's decline over recent years. So I won't even bring that up again. yes he got a one-year deal in Arizona. Do you think there was a REASON that Garland was only able to get a one-year deal? And the Orioles did talk to Garland, there were talks and the Orioles did not like what they saw. You know what, about two dozen other teams did not like what they saw with Garland. Garland might have said that he had no desire to play in Baltimore.

Now, where did Garland go, AH the same place Lowe went after he started declining and getting shelled in the AL East. He went to the NL West, where at least half of the division is routinely in the bottom third of Runs Scored in the majors.

This is from Rotoworld:

Diamondbacks signed RHP Jon Garland, who had been with the Angels, to a one-year, $6.25 million contract with a mutual option for 2010.

The mutual option is worth $10 million and the Diamondbacks can buy it out for $2.5 million. If Garland declines the option himself, he'll get $1 million. It seems unlikely that Arizona will want to pay him $10 million for 2010, so the deal basically becomes a one-year, $8.75 million contract for a guy who had a 4.90 ERA and 90/59 K/BB ratio in 196 2/3 innings last season. Garland has been very durable, starting 32 or 33 games in seven straight seasons, but he's an expensive innings eater for a team that supposedly had budget problems.

From FoxSports scouting report

Pitching

Garland has a solid sinking fastball in the low-90s but has been unable to complement it with another plus pitch. His curveball can be a good pitch, but he does not command it well enough. He does not do a good job of changing speeds and winds up in too many hitters' count, which helps explains how a sinkerballer could give up the fourth-most home runs in the AL.

Garland would cost five times as much, and be much harder to dump midway through the year when/if (most likely when) He isn't making a solid case for you right now, I know ST means nothing but it is hard to defend some of those numbers, especially when baseball people have been predicting his decline for awhile

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/stats/sortable_player_stats.jsp?c_id=ari

And what you still seem not to be getting is that the "rockstars" as you so derisvely call them, well some of them could be up here THIS year. And locking into a ML deal with the likes of Garland or Lowe means that they CAN'T come up here because we are committed to those guys and we can't let them go without eating three times the money we have to eat while getting similar production from Hendrickson and Penn.