Baseball Reference Odds have Orioles at MLB best 19.4% to win World Series

[OsFanInOhio]

Before the bradish and Coulombe injuries, you could’ve sold me on this maybe being the case. After, it’s hard to see us materially ahead of the Phillies (once they get Turner and ralmuto back) and the dodgers (again assuming betts and Yamamoto back healthy. 
it does help that we have the prospect capital to go get the help we need, but we will see how much we do. 

[Hallas]

Btw I believe Fangraphs changed their playoff odds formula to gradually weight an elo system more as the season goes on.  This means that in season results will be weighted higher as the season goes forward.

 

If the O's are still crushing their enemies and seeing them driven before you at the end of July then the unstable ZIPS projections for our rookies and journeymen will be less meaningful by then.

[Just Regular]

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

If the O's are still crushing their enemies and seeing them driven before you at the end of July then the unstable ZIPS projections for our rookies and journeymen will be less meaningful by then.

The lamentations of the Yankees are best in life.

[TopGunnar]

We’re not even close to a World Series team with the back end of pitching staff. 

[DrungoHazewood]

13 hours ago, e16bball said:

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs has multiple “projection modes.”

The default method (called “Fangraphs”) seems to heavily weight their preseason projections into the recipe. This is the mode in which the Yankees are projected to finish more strongly than the Orioles — and in which we only have the referenced 8% chance of WS glory. Which is due in large part to the fact that before the season, Fangraphs had them winning the division and the Orioles well behind.

They have a couple other modes that are also based on preseason projections, and I think they’re just too sticky as it relates to those projections. Yes, if you think Gunnar Henderson is going to regress to his projected 121 wRC+ and the combination of Santander/Westburg/Cowser/O’Hearn is collectively going to provide below-average hitting (as per The Bat X), then the air probably is going to come out of our balloon. But what living, breathing human actually believes those things after watching the first half of this season? So what’s the value in forming a forward-looking projection system around what appear to be badly erroneous guesses from months ago?

Unsurprisingly, those systems all favor the Yankees as well. Much easier to make aggressive preseason projections of success for guys with many years of track record like the old heads on the Bronx Bummers.

The Season-to-Date mode that only uses this year’s data (and not the preseason projections) is my favorite, because I didn’t put much stock in the FG projections in February and I sure as hell don’t put any in them now. In this mode, the Orioles are projected to finish with 105 wins, a 62.3% chance to take the division, and a 17.4% chance to raise the trophy.

Sadly, though, all of these models have missed the memo (somewhat widely circulated here) that the Orioles have a 0% chance of winning the World Series unless they add 2-4 high-end pitchers to the roster — so I suppose they’re all flawed to some extent. 

I think if any of us were being realistic and serious about developing a projection system we would have to give substantial weight to previous year performances. Even in mid-June we're well below the thresholds where many current year numbers are more signal than noise. If it were me I'd probably equally weight this and last year's performances for most players, and give some weight to years prior to 2023.

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, TopGunnar said:

We’re not even close to a World Series team with the back end of pitching staff. 

Neither were last year's D'backs, but there they were in the Series and they didn't have half the O's lineup or front line players. The idea that the best teams have few or no weaknesses is rarely true, and the idea that the best teams always win the Series is certainly not.

Edited Saturday at 10:43 by DrungoHazewood

[Number5]

15 hours ago, Just Regular said:

The lamentations of the Yankees are best in life.

Neighbah

[ledzepp8]

3 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Neither were last year's D'backs, but there they were in the Series and they didn't have half the O's lineup or front line players. The idea that the best teams have few or no weaknesses is rarely true, and the idea that the best teams always win the Series is certainly not.

This can’t be. I have it on good authority from internet orioles fans, that unless you’re built like the 27 Yankees, you can’t possibly get to and/or win the World Series. 

[glenn__davis]

So just to make sure we all understand this...

The Orioles according to these odds have the best chance of any team to win the World Series - and they are overwhelming favorites to NOT win.