Hmm… so about that qualifying offer to Santander?

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Santander is on pace to hit 40 home runs. Are you betting on a rookie to give you that next season as you compete for a World Series?

I disagree about Mayo and Basallo. IMO Webb is most certainly worth one. Besides if you don’t extend Burnes what’s the plan for the rotation?

I'm not betting Santander gives you that next season.

[RZNJ]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not betting Santander gives you that next season.

I’m not betting he gives you that this season.

[casadeozo]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

Santander is on pace to hit 40 home runs. Are you betting on a rookie to give you that next season as you compete for a World Series?

I disagree about Mayo and Basallo. IMO Webb is most certainly worth one. Besides if you don’t extend Burnes what’s the plan for the rotation?

Webb is not available. He’s also signed to a team friendly deal and they are very much in it. If they drop out he would be the last thing they sell

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

I’m not betting he gives you that this season.

Me neither but they did specify 2025.

[Bemorewins]

4 hours ago, btdart20 said:

You're missing the point to repeat your talking points.  Because the things you're saying out are indicators of why many believe they won't extend Santa.  Looking thru the HOU model lens, Santa isn't Altuve or Bregman who were extension worthy.  He's somewhere between Reddick and Springer.  

Trumbo is a good O' comp to the down stream troubles of poor portfolio management. 

You're case is built mostly on a short term horizon.  Can it happen?  Sure.  But there has to be other reasons.  The trade deadline might give a glimpse behind the green curtain regarding what they think about the next wave of prospects balanced with post-season planning.  Can HK be a Santa replacement in 2025+?  Mayo?  Basallo?  (With available talent in the seller market being another variable.)

Every stud was a prospect once.  And they carry portfolios...

I do not doubt that any of those 3 can give you credible production if/when Santander leaves. The problem as I see it is that we don’t have any Basallo/Mayo/Kjerstad level pitching talent to rely upon. We need pitching now and next year and beyond. And we don’t have any well to draw from within the org to get it. It has to come from somewhere.

[btdart20]

2 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I do not doubt that any of those 3 can give you credible production if/when Santander leaves. The problem as I see it is that we don’t have any Basallo/Mayo/Kjerstad level pitching talent to rely upon. We need pitching now and next year and beyond. And we don’t have any well to draw from within the org to get it. It has to come from somewhere.

And that's the draw for irrationally exuberance.  But that's another topic. We'll still make some type of deadline deal without it.

Santa gets a QO.  He rejects because a multi-year lower AAV will be on the table.  Will the O's be at that table still?  I doubt it.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

Given pitching injuries right now I wouldn’t trade Basallo or Mayo for any pitcher in the league. 

Sounds like you are good with the rotation “as is” or just making marginal moves?

[dystopia]

Just now, Bemorewins said:

Sounds like you are good with the rotation “as is” or just making marginal moves?

We don't need to trade Mayo or Basallo to get something of value back. You're underrating our prospects.

[Bemorewins]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm not betting Santander gives you that next season.

You might be right. This might be the career year? But even if he does what he did last year that would be okay as far as I’m concerned. IMO players Santander keep the floor high for our team.

[Bemorewins]

2 minutes ago, dystopia said:

We don't need to trade Mayo or Basallo to get something of value back. You're underrating our prospects.

You think Kjerstad gets us an ace like Webb or Gray?

[Bemorewins]

14 minutes ago, btdart20 said:

And that's the draw for irrationally exuberance.  But that's another topic. We'll still make some type of deadline deal without it.

Santa gets a QO.  He rejects because a multi-year lower AAV will be on the table.  Will the O's be at that table still?  I doubt it.

“Irrational exuberance” is trying to add meaningful pitching talent for this season and next? Okay cool.

[btdart20]

1 minute ago, Bemorewins said:

“Irrational exuberance” is trying to add meaningful pitching talent for this season and next? Okay cool.

If that's how you choose to spin it.  I'll give you more credit than that though.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

11 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

You think Kjerstad gets us an ace like Webb or Gray?

Neither of those guys is currently available.

[Bemorewins]

3 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Neither of those guys is currently available.

I don’t know who is available. Do you have a list of who is and who is not available? That way I won’t waste anymore of anyone’s time.

[24fps]

1 hour ago, Say O! said:

Data science decision making (even if risk averse) would indicate to QO as it is asset and ROI maximization.  Decline and its draft pick. If accepts (and Os view as potentially redundant piece), then can trade Santander for another asset w/o having to eat salary.

Seems a little convoluted. 

Santander won't be an asset after the last day of the season although I suppose there could be some legacy value if he's traded.  Otherwise there's no longer an investment to generate a return on.  Interestingly, the QO does offer an opportunity to gamble on an expired asset and to me, that's a better way to look at qualifying offers - as weird derivatives.  If Elias thinks Santander is worth a roster spot and tying up a significant percentage of next year's budget, then there isn't much risk and it's back to being a business decision. That's fine and he should leave it there.  But if he has a hunger for that draft pick like many on here do, then he's off into cowboy country pretty quickly and thankfully, I don't see that happening.

I don't think there's much value in these kind of compensatory draft picks.  Next year's pick for the O's would be around #35.  Checking the June draft from 1965-2023 you'll find there have been 3 players out of 58 who have put up more than 10 WAR over their entire careers - roughly 5%.  That's a pretty crappy success rate.  Then there's the carrying cost measured in years before you know the outcome of your already unlikely gamble - so it should be viewed as a consolation prize, not any kind of incentive.

Finally, if the O's think there's even the slightest chance of changing their minds about Santander, then it would be pretty dumb to offer a QO, have it accepted, then have to take $20 million off the table for God knows how long while trying to fix their mistake and put together the 2025 team.   The complexity of trading an expensive, unwanted player while finding an acceptable return elsewhere shouldn't be underestimated.

Elias' job is already complicated enough without unforced errors.