Optimal position player roster for second half and playoffs?

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Fun fact, Westburg is +8 OAA at 3rd and -6 at 2nd.  I'm a little surprised to see him so far down at 2nd, but he's looked pretty good at 3rd, and he's looking like an all star.  Between that and the fact that Holliday has 2nd reserved for him, it makes it really difficult to pencil in Mayo anywhere.  Maybe he can play RF?  Based on how he mashes you find room for him but we have a lot of crowded spots everywhere.

Which is why despite many reasons to keep him, there are also many reasons to look to trade Mountcastle.

[RZNJ]

30 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Fun fact, Westburg is +8 OAA at 3rd and -6 at 2nd.  I'm a little surprised to see him so far down at 2nd, but he's looked pretty good at 3rd, and he's looking like an all star.  Between that and the fact that Holliday has 2nd reserved for him, it makes it really difficult to pencil in Mayo anywhere.  Maybe he can play RF?  Based on how he mashes you find room for him but we have a lot of crowded spots everywhere.

I agree that Westburg has looked better at 3B but I think he’s an average or better 2B over time.  He was last year.  He dropped a popup and made 2-3 other errors at 2B over a short time, hence the minus 6 OAA.

Mayo’s bat as a 3B, just provides so much more value, providing the defense is close to average.

[CaptainRedbeard]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

The fact that this team is obliterating team and MLB records for home runs without a guy who very well could end up the best power hitter on the team at some point is pretty amazing. 

Mayo might be the best prospect in this system. Really Holliday, Mayo and Basallo all could lay claim to the best prospect in the system. 

If the Orioles play Cowser (or even Holliday) in CF, the BOTTOM of the lineup will be comprised of, for the foreseeable future:

Westburg, 25, former top ~25 prospect, second year player, 140 wRC+, likely all star;

Cowser, 24, former top ~25 prospect, rookie, 116 wRC+, likely top 3 ROY;

Kjerstad, 25, current top ~25 prospect, 150 wRC+ in AAA this year;

Mayo, 22, current top ~10 prospect, 154 wRC+ in AAA this year;

Holliday, 20, #1 overall prospect, 140 wRC+ in AAA this year;

Basallo, 19, current top ~10 prospect, 124 wRC+ in AA this year.

Because in addition to these players, you have a just turned 23 year old, former #1 overall prospect playing SS and leading the league in WAR in his second season, and a 26 year old, former #1 overall prospect playing C and in his third season and on pace for his third 5-6 WAR season in a row. 

These 8 players collectively also offer so much positional flexibility and defense value that the 9th player can be a DH. There’s two catchers and two shortstops. Not a single player has hit arbitration yet, and Adley is the only one with only 3 years of control AFTER this season and not 4+. It is simply absurd, and pretty much unprecedented.

[btdart20]

Holliday has to force his way back into the 2024 conversation IMO.  I tend to think Elias thinks he pushed the kid too far and the jump from AAA  to MLB was too big (for now).  

C - Adley, McCann

IF - Mounty, Westburg, Gunnar, Mayo, Mateo, O'Hearn

OF - Mullins, Santa,  Cowser, HK

Hays probably gets the last roster spot as a RHH balance.

[sportsfan8703]

6 hours ago, RZNJ said:

1B Mountcastle

2B Westburg

SS Henderson

3B Mayo

C Rutschman

LF Cowser

CF Mullins

RF Santander

DH O’Hearn

McCann, Mateo, Hays, Kjerstad

Cowser plays CF on the road with Kjerstad in LF and Cedric sits.   At home Mountcastle sits against RHP, with O’Hearn at 1B and Kjerstad at DH.  Also 1-2 games a week in RF with Santander at DH.

 

 

Spot on. In a 3 game series that gives us two potential roster spots we could use for bats. Holliday and a third catcher in Basallo. In a 5/7 game series we’d only have one extra spot. In that case, I’d take Holliday. But… in an all hands on deck situation, it might make more sense to go with Basallo as a 3rd catcher. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Bemorewins said:

Tony, do you think that Mayo has Judge upside when it comes to power? That’s the only guy besting Gunnar right now. Or do you think that this is an outlier power season for Gunnar?

At 22-years old, Aaron Judge slashed .308/.419/.486/.905 and hit 17 home runs in 563 PAs  between A-ball and AA.

At 22-years old, Coby Mayo is slashing .314/.384/.647/1.031 with 17 home runs in 232 PAs.

Gunnar is amazing, and he very well may end up a perennial 40+ homer guy, but nobody in AAA or higher as more raw power than Coby Mayo and this is the first year he's really tapping into it consistently.

Coby Mayo is ready to mash MLB pitching right now. In two years, unless he's injured, I would suspect he'll be among the league leaders in home runs. 

Watching pitchers try to navigate a lineup that includes, Gunnar, Adley, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, and in a not too distant future Samuel Basallo is going to be fun to watch.  

 

 

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Which is why despite many reasons to keep him, there are also many reasons to look to trade Mountcastle.

Are you thinking Mountcastle as a throw-in for some pitching?   He might have value to a team like Texas or Houston that might be looking to reload for 2025 or 2026.  I'm totally down with trading him if he can help us get someone meaningful.  The absolutely dreadful state of first basemen means he should have some value. 

 

I'd feel better getting Mayo some MLB at bats before looking to deal Mountcastle, to make sure he doesn't look overwhelmed up here.

 

 

 

  

 

[Hallas]

5 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

At 22-years old, Aaron Judge slashed .308/.419/.486/.905 and hit 17 home runs in 563 PAs  between A-ball and AA.

At 22-years old, Coby Mayo is slashing .314/.384/.647/1.031 with 17 home runs in 232 PAs.

Gunnar is amazing, and he very well may end up a perennial 40+ homer guy, but nobody in AAA or higher as more raw power than Coby Mayo and this is the first year he's really tapping into it consistently.

Coby Mayo is ready to mash MLB pitching right now. In two years, unless he's injured, I would suspect he'll be among the league leaders in home runs. 

Watching pitchers try to navigate a lineup that includes, Gunnar, Adley, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, and in a not too distant future Samuel Basallo is going to be fun to watch.  

 

 

Are you worried about Mayo falling on his face like Holliday or do you think he's polished enough to make the jump?

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

15 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

At 22-years old, Aaron Judge slashed .308/.419/.486/.905 and hit 17 home runs in 563 PAs  between A-ball and AA.

At 22-years old, Coby Mayo is slashing .314/.384/.647/1.031 with 17 home runs in 232 PAs.

Gunnar is amazing, and he very well may end up a perennial 40+ homer guy, but nobody in AAA or higher as more raw power than Coby Mayo and this is the first year he's really tapping into it consistently.

Coby Mayo is ready to mash MLB pitching right now. In two years, unless he's injured, I would suspect he'll be among the league leaders in home runs. 

Watching pitchers try to navigate a lineup that includes, Gunnar, Adley, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, and in a not too distant future Samuel Basallo is going to be fun to watch.  

 

 

That's the crazy part even with Adley, Gunnar and Westburg doing their thing. The organization has barely scratched the surface when it comes to the player talent that will eventually be on the 26 man roster. This lineup might look like an all star team all on it's own by 2026.

Edited Sunday at 19:07 by OsFanSinceThe80s

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, Hallas said:

Are you thinking Mountcastle as a throw-in for some pitching?   He might have value to a team like Texas or Houston that might be looking to reload for 2025 or 2026.  I'm totally down with trading him if he can help us get someone meaningful.  The absolutely dreadful state of first basemen means he should have some value. 

 

I'd feel better getting Mayo some MLB at bats before looking to deal Mountcastle, to make sure he doesn't look overwhelmed up here.

 

 

 

  

 

I don’t think he’s a throw in at all.  I think he can be a central figure in a trade but I do think it would need to be a contender/contender type thing..like when I suggested the Pirates trade where him and Bednar were the key pieces.

[Tony-OH]

Just now, Hallas said:

Are you worried about Mayo falling on his face like Holliday or do you think he's polished enough to make the jump?

I would be absolutely shocked if Mayo had a huge learning curve at the MLB level. I said coming into this season that he was ahead of Holliday in being ready and he's ahead of him now. That's not a knock on Holliday, it's how good Mayo is right now.

The Orioles are winning and Elias doesn't like to lose players, so guys like Urias and Hays are guy that could step into a Jimenez "pot hole" or be guy used in conjunction with prospects to net am impact reliever. Now, I know neither Urias or Hays have much trading value, but they could fill a short term need for someone. 

Elias may want Urias around to be a late inning defensive 3B if Mayo struggles at all and right now, Hays doesn't have much value other than left field against left-handed pitching, and Kjerstad hits left-handers pretty good.

For now, Elias may be fine with keeping Mayo down unless an injury opens things up. It's sucks for him and the fans, but it makes sense from an org depth stand point.

[Hallas]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I would be absolutely shocked if Mayo had a huge learning curve at the MLB level. I said coming into this season that he was ahead of Holliday in being ready and he's ahead of him now. That's not a knock on Holliday, it's how good Mayo is right now.

The Orioles are winning and Elias doesn't like to lose players, so guys like Urias and Hays are guy that could step into a Jimenez "pot hole" or be guy used in conjunction with prospects to net am impact reliever. Now, I know neither Urias or Hays have much trading value, but they could fill a short term need for someone. 

Elias may want Urias around to be a late inning defensive 3B if Mayo struggles at all and right now, Hays doesn't have much value other than left field against left-handed pitching, and Kjerstad hits left-handers pretty good.

For now, Elias may be fine with keeping Mayo down unless an injury opens things up. It's sucks for him and the fans, but it makes sense from an org depth stand point.

I think Westburg playing his way into a full time 3rd baseman has something to do with that too.  If Westburg looked like a + defender at 2nd there would be a more obvious spot for Mayo.  But even accounting for some weird plays that cost Westburg at 2nd he's still been grading below average there.

 

[Bemorewins]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

At 22-years old, Aaron Judge slashed .308/.419/.486/.905 and hit 17 home runs in 563 PAs  between A-ball and AA.

At 22-years old, Coby Mayo is slashing .314/.384/.647/1.031 with 17 home runs in 232 PAs.

Gunnar is amazing, and he very well may end up a perennial 40+ homer guy, but nobody in AAA or higher as more raw power than Coby Mayo and this is the first year he's really tapping into it consistently.

Coby Mayo is ready to mash MLB pitching right now. In two years, unless he's injured, I would suspect he'll be among the league leaders in home runs. 

Watching pitchers try to navigate a lineup that includes, Gunnar, Adley, Mayo, Kjerstad, Cowser, Westburg, Holliday, and in a not too distant future Samuel Basallo is going to be fun to watch.  

 

 

I appreciate the comparisons of the two/three players and highly value your opinion.

That is awful high praise that you are giving Mayo. You are not the first evaluator who I have heard "special" expectations from for him. I hope he becomes everything you say!

[Jagwar]

I want to see Mayo up as much as anybody. But any swap of Urias for Mayo is a value bet on defense for offense at 3B. And (like Holliday, Gunnar, Cowser, Kjerstad, Stowers, et al) there is no guarantee that Mayo will even immediately offer offensive value in his adjustment to big league pitching. 

Would the O's have to trade, release or slip Urias through Waivers?

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Hallas said:

I think Westburg playing his way into a full time 3rd baseman has something to do with that too.  If Westburg looked like a + defender at 2nd there would be a more obvious spot for Mayo.  But even accounting for some weird plays that cost Westburg at 2nd he's still been grading below average there.

 

Westburg's defense at 2B has fallen off according to most metrics, so that could be part of the concern. Right now, Elias may not want to theoretically downgrade defense at 3B and 2B. I feel like Westburg would be better at 2B if he played there full-time, or at least I'm hoping so.