Grow the Bats? Grow the Arms? Both? Neither?

[DocJJ]

A previous GM for the O's (I forgot who) once said the plan was to grow the arms and buy the bats.   This seemed like a good strategy at first.  Pitching is extremely expensive especially if you are trying to sign them as free agents.  I think this strategy failed, however, because of the rate of attrition of major league pitchers.  Many get injured.  Some never develop their secondary pitches or good control and command.  

 

The new MO seems to be to grow the bats and use surplus to acquire pitching.   So far, the results seem promising...  Thoughts?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, DocJJ said:

A previous GM for the O's (I forgot who) once said the plan was to grow the arms and buy the bats.   This seemed like a good strategy at first.  Pitching is extremely expensive especially if you are trying to sign them as free agents.  I think this strategy failed, however, because of the rate of attrition of major league pitchers.  Many get injured.  Some never develop their secondary pitches or good control and command.  

 

The new MO seems to be to grow the bats and use surplus to acquire pitching.   So far, the results seem promising...  Thoughts?

Other teams seem to be able to grow the arms.

 

[Moose Milligan]

I just don’t know why this horse keeps getting beat to death. 
 

Yes, the Orioles are fairly adept at drafting position players and bats. 
 

I’m hoping they’ll buy some pitching soon. Regardless, this is one of the top teams and the top front offices in the game. That doesn’t excuse that they haven’t done a bang up job on drafting and developing pitching but it’s clear that they know what they’re doing. 

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Other teams seem to be able to grow the arms.

 

I don't have any doubt this team can, too. But they haven't given themselves much opportunity from a numbers standpoint. 

That said, I think this is the first year we're really seeing some guys developing from the last few drafts. Plenty of interesting guys, but they're all pretty much below the AAA level. 

Re: the OP, the GM was Andy MacPhail and his head and heart were in the right place, but ultimately we can see now that was kind of a flawed premise. Position players stay healthier, they have less variance and risk, and they play every day. It just makes sense to make them a majority of your draft. 

Edited Monday at 21:39 by interloper

[EddeeEddee]

10 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

A previous GM for the O's (I forgot who) once said the plan was to grow the arms and buy the bats.   This seemed like a good strategy at first.  Pitching is extremely expensive especially if you are trying to sign them as free agents.  I think this strategy failed, however, because of the rate of attrition of major league pitchers.  Many get injured.  Some never develop their secondary pitches or good control and command.  

 

The new MO seems to be to grow the bats and use surplus to acquire pitching.   So far, the results seem promising...  Thoughts?

I think it was Andy MacPhail who said grow the arms and buy the bats.  The O's had some bad luck with that strategy when guys like Adam Loewen and Hayden Penn were derailed by injury.  Obviously others just never panned out.  

But I'm thinking they never took the strategy to its potential when they chose not to target and develop players from the Caribbean countries -- pitchers or position players.  Not to say that strategy definitely would have worked out if they had a greater presence in the Caribbean then, but they must have missed out on many promising arms.

 

  

[now]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Other teams seem to be able to grow the arms.

 

Sure... and then the arms fall off. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, now said:

Sure... and then the arms fall off. 

Right, because folks aren't trying to add more offense to the game.  Because no one can develop pitchers.

I guess no one can develop hitters either.

 

[Flash- bd]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just don’t know why this horse keeps getting beat to death. 
 

Yes, the Orioles are fairly adept at drafting position players and bats. 
 

I’m hoping they’ll buy some pitching soon. Regardless, this is one of the top teams and the top front offices in the game. That doesn’t excuse that they haven’t done a bang up job on drafting and developing pitching but it’s clear that they know what they’re doing. 

Exactly. Whatever your interpretation of the strategy, the results speak for themselves. 

To quote myself from a couple weeks ago...

We won 103 games last season with the lowest payroll in baseball. We are on an even better pace for next season and given the reasonably expected trajectories of our talent in the organization things look only likely to get better and better.

In a sports world where financial capability, especially in a non salary cap system, has an extremely strong correlation to success, that is just absolutely brilliant. Sometimes I wonder if people have taken the time to really step back and appreciate what an achievement it is to not only be in the shape that this organization is, but simply the mere fact of going 148-81 in our last season and almost a half, with the lowest payroll in baseball.

I guess someone can probably think of a strategy that allows the team with the lowest or second lowest payroll in the sport to win more than 100 games a season, but if they do, they certainly aren't here nor probably in the MLB at the moment, so I'm going to just go ahead and say that their strategy is working. 

 

Edited Monday at 23:05 by Flash- bd

[Can_of_corn]

14 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

Exactly. Whatever your interpretation of the strategy, the results speak for themselves. 

To quote myself from a couple weeks ago...

We won 103 games last season with the lowest payroll in baseball. We are on an even better pace for next season and given the reasonably expected trajectories of our talent in the organization things look only likely to get better and better.

In a sports world where financial capability, especially in a non salary cap system, has an extremely strong correlation to success, that is just absolutely brilliant. Sometimes I wonder if people have taken the time to really step back and appreciate what an achievement it is to not only be in the shape that this organization is, but simply the mere fact of going 148-81 in our last season and almost a half, with the lowest payroll in baseball.

I guess someone can probably think of a strategy that allows the team with the lowest or second lowest payroll in the sport to win more than 100 games a season, but if they do, they certainly aren't here nor probably in the MLB at the moment, so I'm going to just go ahead and say that their strategy is working. 

 

So Cleveland?

The team that has a better winning percentage and lower payroll?

 

 

Edited Monday at 23:20 by Can_of_corn
Oops not more wins currently.

[Flash- bd]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So Cleveland?

The team that has more wins and a lower payroll?

The same Cleveland that is equal with us on games now (52-30 vs our 53-31) and was 25 GB of us last season? 

We're only 25 games better than them in that sample. If they close that over the next 3-4 years I'll eat my words.  

Given the level of talent in our organization, I'd be surprised if they close it at all. 

What's for sure, is if you talk about the last season and a half of baseball, no organization has done better compared to payroll than this one. And the arrow points up in terms of trajectory, when you still have the no. 1 farm system in baseball. 

Edited Monday at 23:23 by Flash- bd

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Flash- bd said:

The same Cleveland that is equal with us on games now (52-30 vs our 53-31) and was 25 GB of us last season? 

We're only 25 games better than them in that sample. If they close that over the next 3-4 years I'll eat my words.  

We can keep going back to 2019 if you want? 

The O's aren't the only ones doing more with less, they aren't the only ones that are competent.

[Flash- bd]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

We can keep going back to 2019 if you want? 

The O's aren't the only ones doing more with less, they aren't the only ones that are competent.

I don't see anyone doing it better. Find me a better season and a half stretch with a lower payroll wrt to competition in the last 5 years. And as noted, the arrow still points upwards. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Flash- bd said:

I don't see anyone doing it better. Find me a better season and a half stretch with a lower payroll wrt to competition in the last 5 years. And as noted, the arrow still points upwards. 

Heh, that's some fair criteria you set. 

I don't see anyone doing it better (over an 18 month window, with lower payroll and only using the last five years)!

You should be posting about historic stats on Twitter.

There are a thousand ways to skin a cat.

Elias has done a great job, that doesn't diminish what some other people in the industry have accomplished.

I think Elias gets tons of flowers on this site, a huge amount.  I think we hear daily about it. 

I think the National media has given him his flowers.

I think it's nonsense to think he is somehow being overlooked by anyone.

How much more look at me do you want?

 

[Frobby]

Both.  From Fangraphs yesterday:

“A problem contending teams often have to solve in order to be sustainably great is how to keep the pitching flowing while their position player core is in place. The Orioles aren’t going to have that problem. There are so many interesting pitchers in this system that it was tough to include them all. There’s an org we’re aware of whose scouts need to write a full report on a player if he touches 95 in front of them. If you’re a scout from that team covering Baltimore, you’ve had to write up more than 80 pitchers based on their peak velo alone. The retaining wall of arms is strong in the upper levels, giving the Orioles the pitching depth to contend amid injuries.”

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/baltimore-orioles-top-45-prospects-2024/

Meanwhile, our major league pitching staff has the third best ERA in MLB.   

I’m honestly pretty tired of people saying we haven’t paid enough attention to the pitching.   
 

 

 

[drjohnnyfever1]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I just don’t know why this horse keeps getting beat to death. 
 

Yes, the Orioles are fairly adept at drafting position players and bats. 
 

I’m hoping they’ll buy some pitching soon. Regardless, this is one of the top teams and the top front offices in the game. That doesn’t excuse that they haven’t done a bang up job on drafting and developing pitching but it’s clear that they know what they’re doing. 

...and yet when everyone was clamoring for a trade for a #1 and we acquired Burnes, when no one was really expecting THAT, we had a staff lined up - that if it had been and remained healthy - was a top SP staff in the league.  I'm not sure how one comes to the conclusion that they need to explain something.  They, indeed, had depth enough in the farm and from acquisitions - both in waivers and FA's - to consider a 6 man rotation - a luxury.

For me, their error is not in picking, identifying, or developing pitchers - it is in the area of realistic expectations in rehab or recovery in pitchers.  We banked a lot on pitchers a lot of us were surprised such a big role was being expected of them.