Trading for Tarik Skubal

[Roll Tide]

12 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Zero people have said not to upgrade the rest of the rotation.  No idea why people keep saying that as if that will be the rotation next year. It’s a non sensical argument.

And guess what, we don’t even know that Burnes will be as good next year.  It’s always a could be..every year.

Okay …but going into next season expecting Grayson to be your number 1 is beyond stupid. For 3 straight seasons Burnes has had 28 starts or more,…almost certainly 4 with this year. 
 

Pitchers are all at a risk of injury … but I’d rather risk on Burnes as opposed to a hefty price for oft injured guys like Skubal and Crochet…neither can currently be counted on for much more than 100 innings if your looking at their history. 
 

Im fine if we can get a fair deal on one of those. And he’s our 2 or 3 next year. Not resigning Burnes if you can would be stupid and cheap. 

[Sports Guy]

9 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Okay …but going into next season expecting Grayson to be your number 1 is beyond stupid. For 3 straight seasons Burnes has had 28 starts or more,…almost certainly 4 with this year. 
 

Pitchers are all at a risk of injury … but I’d rather risk on Burnes as opposed to a hefty price for oft injured guys like Skubal and Crochet…neither can currently be counted on for much more than 100 innings if your looking at their history. 
 

Im fine if we can get a fair deal on one of those. And he’s our 2 or 3 next year. Not resigning Burnes if you can would be stupid and cheap. 

Yes I agree if you don’t understand aging curves, talent, etc…thinking Grayson could be a 1 next year is very stupid.

[OnlyOneOriole]

14 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Okay …but going into next season expecting Grayson to be your number 1 is beyond stupid. For 3 straight seasons Burnes has had 28 starts or more,…almost certainly 4 with this year. 
 

Pitchers are all at a risk of injury … but I’d rather risk on Burnes as opposed to a hefty price for oft injured guys like Skubal and Crochet…neither can currently be counted on for much more than 100 innings if your looking at their history. 
 

Im fine if we can get a fair deal on one of those. And he’s our 2 or 3 next year. Not resigning Burnes if you can would be stupid and cheap. 

I completely agree and I would love for him to be an O for the next 5 years.  And hey, it isn't my money being spend on him.  That being said I doubt the Os do it and I can't say I really blame them.  The way starters are getting injured and the money that they are now getting?  For a smaller market team like the Os it is probably too much of a risk.  

That being said Burnes seems to have the type of delivery that makes him less injury prone compared to others. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes I agree if you don’t understand aging curves, talent, etc…thinking Grayson could be a 1 next year is very stupid.

I am sure the Os will trade for a solid #1 either in the next few weeks or the off season.  Or sign one.  But they are going to need more than just one starter.  Consider whomever they trade for or sign as Burnes replacement.  They still need at least one more. 

[Greg Pappas]

I'm guessing Burnes signs for 6/228. That's $38m per year.  More years would not be a shock and/or less $ per year would also not be surprising.

Edited July 20 by Greg Pappas

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I am sure the Os will trade for a solid #1 either in the next few weeks or the off season.  Or sign one.  But they are going to need more than just one starter.  Consider whomever they trade for or sign as Burnes replacement.  They still need at least one more. 

Obviously they need more than 1 starter…but they don’t have to have a #1 starter.  The Rangers are the most recent example of not needing that.

Now, do you need guys to perform at a high level?  Absolutely but you don’t need to be a #1 starter to do that

[OnlyOneOriole]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Obviously they need more than 1 starter…but they don’t have to have a #1 starter.  The Rangers are the most recent example of not needing that.

Now, do you need guys to perform at a high level?  Absolutely but you don’t need to be a #1 starter to do that

I agree.  That is what I meant.   A #1 and then a 3 or a 4. 

[banks703]

24 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm guessing Burnes signs for 6/228. That's $38m per year.  More years would not be a shock and/or less $ per year would also not be surprising.

I don’t think he gets that many dollars. I would be surprised if someone commits that many years to him. Maybe NYY, NYM or LAD. I suppose any of the Cali teams could throw stupid money at him but the recent albatross mega contracts to FA pitching seems to have scared those with money. He’s going into FA as the best starter to hit the market since Cole and some could argue that his last six years have been better than Cole’s were. It’s always possible that someone goes that length but I’m thinking he’s going to get something with higher AAV and less years. Perhaps something like 3/120. 

[StottyByNature]

27 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

I completely agree and I would love for him to be an O for the next 5 years.  And hey, it isn't my money being spend on him.  That being said I doubt the Os do it and I can't say I really blame them.  The way starters are getting injured and the money that they are now getting?  For a smaller market team like the Os it is probably too much of a risk.  

That being said Burnes seems to have the type of delivery that makes him less injury prone compared to others. 

I agree that Burnes is durable but the steady decline of his swing-and-miss stuff is what would keep me from trying to sign him.  He peaked at 13.3 K/9 in 2020 and has dropped every year to his current 8.4.  He's obviously still an ace, but I think it's more likely that we are getting his last peak year than it is that he will continue at this level for 4+ years.  His FIP is a full run higher than his current ERA.  Even though it's not our money, it is the type of move that can really hamstring an organization.  

If we have the money to throw at a Burnes extension it should be instead used on a Henderson one.  

[Sports Guy]

37 minutes ago, banks703 said:

I don’t think he gets that many dollars. I would be surprised if someone commits that many years to him. Maybe NYY, NYM or LAD. I suppose any of the Cali teams could throw stupid money at him but the recent albatross mega contracts to FA pitching seems to have scared those with money. He’s going into FA as the best starter to hit the market since Cole and some could argue that his last six years have been better than Cole’s were. It’s always possible that someone goes that length but I’m thinking he’s going to get something with higher AAV and less years. Perhaps something like 3/120. 

I think this sounds good and all but no chance that’s all he is getting. He will get a mega deal of 200+ million and 5+ years.

[G54377]

Yea, handing out Burnes 200+ million as this ownerships first big deal could very well end up a disaster. We'd like to believe we are getting this Corbin Burnes for 4+ years but his steady decline is concerning. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, G54377 said:

Yea, handing out Burnes 200+ million as this ownerships first big deal could very well end up a disaster. We'd like to believe we are getting this Corbin Burnes for 4+ years but his steady decline is concerning. 

I don’t know that I would call it a steady decline. I mean, he does have a sub 2.5 ERA but I would say he shows signs that this Corbin Burnes isn’t the Burnes we will see in a few years.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Eventually we should get a decent LH SP since we built the darn wall. Means got hurt. I appreciate what Elias was trying to do with Irvin, but it didn’t work out. 

Povich?    I kind of regard Cade Povich as a better Cole Irvin similar to how Kyle Gibson was a better Jordan Lyles.

It doesn't feel impossible Povich and McDermott if still here acclimate somewhat close in time kind of like Kremer and Bradish were.    I'm interested in both cases to see if they can meet basic five and dive cromulence in the first part of a season.

[Allan Bryant]

2 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

I'm guessing Burnes signs for 6/228. That's $38m per year.  More years would not be a shock and/or less $ per year would also not be surprising.

If Burnes told you that 6/228 is his willingness to sign and stay with Orioles, would you do that deal ?  
For me , it’s very high dollar signing but I would rather do that than mortgage our farm system for one or two pitchers 

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

If Burnes told you that 6/228 is his willingness to sign and stay with Orioles, would you do that deal ?  
For me , it’s very high dollar signing but I would rather do that than mortgage our farm system for one or two pitchers 

How okay are you paying $38 million for, let's say, a 3.75 ERA pitcher in a few years? Not saying he will be that, just have to keep that kind of thing in mind.