John Meoli’s insights on the Os

[Pat Kelly]

Both reassuring and concerning to read this, the core insight: 

The outcomes of the games have been different because the team’s ERA was 3.13 on June 20, and is 5.14 since. That’s two full runs per game more, and crucially, more than they’ve scored in that period.

[Frobby]

So it’s primarily the pitching.  No kidding!   And mind you, 5.14 is the earned run average, not the average runs allowed.  The RA/9 is 5.49.   

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So it’s primarily the pitching.  No kidding!     

You do know that you just wrote up a long post and made up a stat to come to the same conclusion, right?

[Pat Kelly]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

So it’s primarily the pitching.  No kidding!   And mind you, 5.14 is the earned run average, not the average runs allowed.  The RA/9 is 5.49.   

Yep, it would help if the offense could compensate more which is what Hyde has been citing in post game interviews.  My general sense is the team is too tight with everyone trying to do more/too much.   That never works but hard to back off that mindset.  Young team, not a ton of players with post season track records - team leaders - Adley, Gunnar, Anthony all struggle in the clutch at times.   

[Too Tall]

Example - the other day - bases loaded no outs - down one run - eighth  inning - O'Hearn up - our best pinch hitter - takes a called strike two on a ball outside the zone - strikes out on a pitch he would generally not swing at. We end up plating one run to tie - that's all that the rest - heart of the order - could muster. Our offense all too often in the last 6 weeks. Add in the pitching woes and I say it's amazing we are where we are.

[BRobinsonfan]

43 minutes ago, Pat Kelly said:

 My general sense is the team is too tight with everyone trying to do more/too much.   That never works but hard to back off that mindset.   

Being too tight never works.  Yet year after year teams keep trying it. When will they ever learn?  Instead of a "Believe" sign in the club house, someone should put up a "Don't try to do too much" sign.   

[Sports Guy]

Honestly, these types of things get a little tiring at times. Meoli is right to point this out but (captain obvious talking here), it’s everything.  
 

We have aren’t hitting in clutch situations, our BP stinks and isn’t performing in high leverage situations, starting pitching is subpar and the defense is mediocre.

Again, it can all change and they could win the WS this year. It’s getting healthy, getting hot and being ready to go. 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, BRobinsonfan said:

Being too tight never works.  Yet year after year teams keep trying it. When will they ever learn?  Instead of a "Believe" sign in the club house, someone should put up a "Don't try to do too much" sign.   

I think they should go with the classic.

[eddie83]

 

[Roy Firestone]

45 minutes ago, Too Tall said:

Example - the other day - bases loaded no outs - down one run - eighth  inning - O'Hearn up - our best pinch hitter - takes a called strike two on a ball outside the zone - strikes out on a pitch he would generally not swing at. We end up plating one run to tie - that's all that the rest - heart of the order - could muster. Our offense all too often in the last 6 weeks. Add in the pitching woes and I say it's amazing we are where we are.

Have I mentioned the Orioles have trouble getting a Sacrifice Fly or moving runners? Perhaps I didnt.

[Frobby]

30 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

 

That is pretty interesting.  I think there’s a couple of important things to point out.  First, high leverage at bats are only 15% of all at bats, so it’s not like those low and medium leverage at bats are insignificant.  Second, the team’s sOPS+ in high leverage is 101, meaning the team’s performance in high leverage is a smidge above average compared to the rest of the league.   So it’s not that the O’s are bad in high leverage situations, there just not as above average in those situations as they are in the lower leverage spots.  

The fact that they’re worse this year than last year could be (1) random variation, (2) changes in personnel, or (3) a combination of both.  I’d opt for (3).   Our worst high leverage hitter is Cowser (.506 OPS), who barely played last year, but our second worst is Mullins (.526), who was nails last year (.946).  Our best high leverage hitter last year was Hicks (1.094), and the much-maligned Frazier was quite good (.829) - they’re both gone.  But guys like Santander (.955/.631) and Mountcastle (.931/.679) have dropped a long way.  So, it’s a mix of things, that could continue the way they’ve been going, or change at any time TBH.
 

Edited August 22 by Frobby

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Roy Firestone said:

Have I mentioned the Orioles have trouble getting a Sacrifice Fly or moving runners? Perhaps I didnt.

Seventh in the league in Sac Flies.

[Frobby]

Just now, Roy Firestone said:

Have I mentioned the Orioles have trouble getting a Sacrifice Fly or moving runners? Perhaps I didnt.

Have I mentioned that the Orioles are tied for 7th in MLB in sac flies?  Perhaps I haven’t.  

[Roy Firestone]

37 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Honestly, these types of things get a little tiring at times. Meoli is right to point this out but (captain obvious talking here), it’s everything.  
 

We have aren’t hitting in clutch situations, our BP stinks and isn’t performing in high leverage situations, starting pitching is subpar and the defense is mediocre.

Again, it can all change and they could win the WS this year. It’s getting healthy, getting hot and being ready to go. 

 

 

Shouldnt Webb be returning soon? The maybe Grod in a couple of weeks, if we are lucky.This team is trying to tread water until they get healthy again. Its a race against time , and I'm not sure they can win that race.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

That is pretty interesting.  I think there’s a couple of important things to point out.  First, high leverage at bats are only 15% of all at bats, so it’s not like those low and medium leverage at bats are insignificant.  Second, the team’s sOPS+ in high leverage is 101, meaning the team’s performance in high leverage is a smidge above average compared to the rest of the league.   So it’s not that the O’s are bad in high leverage situations, there just not as above average in those situations as they are in the lower leverage spots.  

The fact that they’re worse this year than last year could be (1) random variation, (2) changes in personnel, or (3) a combination of both.  I’d opt for (3).   Our worst high leverage hitter is Cowser (.506 OPS), who barely played last year, but our second worst is Mullins (.526), who was nails last year (.946).  Our best high leverage hitter last year was Hicks (1.094), and the much-maligned Frazier was quite good (.829) - they’re both gone.  But guys like Santander (.955/.631) and Mountcastle (.931/.679) have dropped a long way.  So, it’s a mix of things, that could continue the way they’ve been going, or change at any time TBH.
 

It’s always random variation, luck, etc…when things come together and you don’t cap it off with a title, it’s hard to get it back

Edited August 22 by Sports Guy