Can the O's hit Lugo and Wacha?

[baltfan]

11 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The league adjusted to their hitting philosophy and they stopped hitting. They make no in game adjustments nor do they change the approach for the situation at hand. I don't care about their overall stats, I care about how they hit with RISP and in key situation where a productive out is imperative. The Orioles hitters do neither well and to me, it's an approach problem.

It seems we are the last team to come to the conclusion that with 2 strikes you need to focus on putting the ball in play.  Hyde also in the 9th has to put pressure on the pitcher.  It was criminal that he didn't pinch run with Holliday.  Distract Erceg a little.  Maybe steal 2nd and put even more pressure.  Relievers don't like runners in scoring position.  

[Oriolesfan1988]

3 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

G1 loser is 0/8 since the format became a permanent fixture in 2022. They were 2/8 in 2020 when there was a similar format due to an expanded playoff field. That year Oakland and San Diego both lost G1 at home, then came back to win the series. 

Still a small sample size IMHO. The team is hitting like crap, but I have a feeling they just need one game to shake this playoff monkey off their back. And I wouldn't be shocked to see that happen today.

[webbrick2010]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

It seems we are the last team to come to the conclusion that with 2 strikes you need to focus on putting the ball in play.  Hyde also in the 9th has to put pressure on the pitcher.  It was criminal that he didn't pinch run with Holliday.  Distract Erceg a little.  Maybe steal 2nd and put even more pressure.  Relievers don't like runners in scoring position.  

Perhaps because Erceg has not allowed a single stolen base or HR vs. the guys Elias picked up at the deadline

[Spy Fox]

2 minutes ago, Oriolesfan1988 said:

Still a small sample size IMHO. The team is hitting like crap, but I have a feeling they just need one game to shake this playoff monkey off their back. And I wouldn't be shocked to see that happen today.

I agree. 

I'm very dispirited, but I simultaneously feel this team has the talent to be very dangerous if they can get that first win under their belts. 

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, baltfan said:

It seems we are the last team to come to the conclusion that with 2 strikes you need to focus on putting the ball in play.  Hyde also in the 9th has to put pressure on the pitcher.  It was criminal that he didn't pinch run with Holliday.  Distract Erceg a little.  Maybe steal 2nd and put even more pressure.  Relievers don't like runners in scoring position.  

You mean the O'Hearn with 64th percentile sprint speed at 27.8 ft/sec? You mean the O'Hearn who is the 10th fastest Oriole on this team? 

So you take out O'Hearn and let's say they tie the game.

Now you have to bring in Santander from RF to play 1B, something he's barely done this year. So your hurt the defense to pick up a small amount of speed in the offchance someone hits a gapper?

It's not like they had Mateo on the bench where he can steal a base. Even if you put in Holliday, he's not exactly a huge base stealer and oh by the way, Erceg has never allowed a stolen base while he's been pitching in the major leagues. The only guy that tried was caught.

 

[baltfan]

3 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Perhaps because Erceg has not allowed a single stolen base or HR vs. the guys Elias picked up at the deadline

Even if you didn't think Holliday could steal, him being there puts pressure on the pitcher.  They sure weren't worried O'Hearn was going to go.  Holliday would also be harder to double off.  This is the playoffs in a 3 game series. You have to leverage your opportunity in the 9th.  What was the compelling reason not to put Holliday in?  Do you agree he was less likely to get doubled off, more likely to take 3rd on a single, and more likely to score on a double?

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Tony-OH said:

You mean the O'Hearn with 64th percentile sprint speed at 27.8 ft/sec? You mean the O'Hearn who is the 10th fastest Oriole on this team? 

So you take out O'Hearn and let's say they tie the game.

Now you have to bring in Santander from RF to play 1B, something he's barely done this year. So your hurt the defense to pick up a small amount of speed in the offchance someone hits a gapper?

It's not like they had Mateo on the bench where he can steal a base. Even if you put in Holliday, he's not exactly a huge base stealer and oh by the way, Erceg has never allowed a stolen base while he's been pitching in the major leagues. The only guy that tried was caught.

 

Yes, I would rather take my chances with Santander at first and the game tied.  Do you think Erceg was worried about O'Hearn stealing?  Do you think he would have been worried about Holliday?  Holliday's sprint speed is 29.4 ft/sec.  If he isn't on this team to pinch run, I don't know why he is here.  And if you aren't going to pinch run with him, then maybe bunt O'Hearn over.  It's the playoffs.  It's Erceg's first playoff game.  He missed in the middle of the zone a couple of times.  Make him more nervous.  You use a pinch runner here like you use your closer at home.  Make sure he gets in the game.

[Fiver6565]

Yeah I had the thought of putting Holliday in when O'hearn got to first base, but I kind of understand why they didn't. That being said, worrying about the defensive alignment in the event that you actually score a run is not a reason to not do it.  I'd rather be tied because of Holliday's extra speed allowing him to score (even if its only increasing that chance slightly) and have Tony at first, than have the game be over because they had to hold O'hearn or he got thrown out at the plate.

I mean, the idea that we were going to be able to get TWO hits to drive in the tying run was pretty implausible at that point of the game.  It was going to take either scoring from first on a double, or a SB followed by a clutch single (LOL like that was going to happen either).

Nothing matters if we can't hit anyway though.  This decision meant nothing at all given what happened (IE what didn't happen, just like it didn't happen all game, or for the entire 2nd half of the season).  We're all just tilting at windmills trying to find reasons that decision making cost us this game, when we all know its just crappy hitting, and absolutely nothing else that did.

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, LGOrioles said:

They had a .120 xBA as a team yesterday. They’re lucky they had 5 hits - they were that bad. And if Savant is correct? They had a 53% chase rate against Ragans. That’s just absolutely pathetic if true and shows they have zero ability to calm things down and perform under pressure. 

The daily O-Swing% readout for yesterday - Mountcastle 85.7% must have been 6 swings at 7 balls.     43.7% for the team 2nd worst to a presumably exhausted Atlanta unit given the weird circumstances for that club these last several days.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=5&month=0&ind=0&postseason=Y&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2024&season=2024&sortcol=2&sortdir=asc&team=2&qual=1&pagenum=1

[Just Regular]

A real kick in the arse would be if Roch's piece eventually revealing Adley's whatever is something like tweaked a trunk muscle during his power boost mode early on.

At a recent Birdland event, Eve spoke at a little length about the tradeoffs between contact and power.    She even ascribed to players generally a taste for it because "power gets paid" even though my feeling is the Orioles actively worked on drilling that skill into guys like Cowser and Norby who were high average college hitters.

Adley's greatest team success at Oregon State was with guys like Nick Madrigal and Steven Kwan in a contact oriented offense good enough to beat all the SEC monsters.    It is interesting seeing him evolve away from that this season.

[Ceciltrav]

The ball Mullins hit.  Was the wind blowing in yesterday because I thought it was gone off the bat?

[Sanity Check]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

You mean the O'Hearn with 64th percentile sprint speed at 27.8 ft/sec? You mean the O'Hearn who is the 10th fastest Oriole on this team? 

So you take out O'Hearn and let's say they tie the game.

Now you have to bring in Santander from RF to play 1B, something he's barely done this year. So your hurt the defense to pick up a small amount of speed in the offchance someone hits a gapper?

It's not like they had Mateo on the bench where he can steal a base. Even if you put in Holliday, he's not exactly a huge base stealer and oh by the way, Erceg has never allowed a stolen base while he's been pitching in the major leagues. The only guy that tried was caught.

 

I agree with every bit of this.

Plus, consider these factors.  Beside the point that Erceg has not given up a stolen base, Sal Perez is a stud catcher, with a stud arm.  The worst thing the Orioles could have done is put Holliday in try and steal.  That's a fools game.  Also, don't you kind want to the other team's first baseman to have to hold the runner, opening up more of a hole for Rutschman and Cowser on that side?  That's smarter baseball. 

The fact that our young studs really are not reliable in key situations is the problem here, and it's been that way for the entire 2nd half of the season for most of them.  People point to injuries as to why we didn't play well.  That's an excuse, and not a very good one.  The fact is, if you look at the stats for the guys who weren't hurt, that should tell you all you need to know.  They just weren't good enough for 2+ months, and are only in the playoffs on the strength of April and May performance, and some of June.  

To a man, including Gunnar, they all need to get better next season.  I guess we'll see who can step it up.  I wish I could have more confidence that the expected studs will figure it out, but my expectations are not very high.