Should Mullins go back to leadoff in 2025 vs RHP?

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The full $15-20 million wouldn't be guaranteed in my scenario, but $5 million of it would be, and I could see some appeal in that for a guy who has stuggled to the point of looking like a potential non-tender candidate at times in recent years and hasn't made a ton of money overall in his career as a late-blooming 13th round pick. 

Like I said though, I don't even know if I would offer him that deal, and I doubt the Orioles would do it with Cowser looking as good as he has in CF and Bradfield hopefully arriving by sometime in 2026 anyway, I just think he'd potentially be open to it. 

So you are saying he would be ok with giving up more long term money/security because of a 5M buyout?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

So you are saying he would be ok with giving up more long term money/security because of a 5M buyout?

If it is there for him next offseason.

It may not be though if he has a crappy 2025, which is certainly possible based on his brutal months-long slumps of recent years and declining defense.

 

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

If it is there for him next offseason.

It may not be though if he has a crappy 2025, which is certainly possible based on his brutal months-long slumps of recent years and declining defense.

 

Ehh, much more risk for him than not with that type of deal.

He will be able to get more than a 1/5 deal in 2026 unless he blows out a knee or Achilles or something like that.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Ehh, much more risk for him than not with that type of deal.

He will be able to get more than a 1/5 deal in 2026 unless he blows out a knee or Achilles or something like that.

Mullins looked like a pretty strong non-tender candidate as recently as July or August of this year and his defense and baserunning is more good than great now, so he could absolutely play his way into a 1 year, $2-3 million dollar prove-it deal for 2026.

For a guy that doesn't have a ton of career earnings, locking in another guaranteed $5 million for him and his family right now could be pretty appealing, but maybe it isn't. Neither of us really know the answer at the end of the day.

 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Mullins looked like a pretty strong non-tender candidate as recently as July or August of this year and his defense and baserunning is more good than great now, so he could absolutely play his way into a 1 year, $2-3 million dollar prove-it deal for 2026.

For a guy that doesn't have a ton of career earnings, locking in another guaranteed $5 million for him and his family right now could be pretty appealing, but maybe it isn't. Neither of us really know the answer at the end of the day.

 

He would get more than that but just going with what you said, you are basically saying he could/would give up multiple years and tens of millions of dollars for the security of a couple of million dollars.

That just doesn’t make sense.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

He would get more than that but just going with what you said, you are basically saying he could/would give up multiple years and tens of millions of dollars for the security of a couple of million dollars.

That just doesn’t make sense.

Just because you personally, subjectively disagree does not mean that it "doesn't make sense" objectively. There is absolutely no guarantee that a lucrative multiyear deal is waiting for him next offseason, but there is certainly reason to think that it may not be, so he might see value for him and his family in locking in as much money as he can right now since he has not banked a ton of money thus far in his career.

 

[wildcard]

I know many O's fans love Cedric.  And that is fine.   But Cedric has put up a 710 to 721 OPS for the last 3 years.    And while his defense is great not too many players with that OPS gets a 15m salary or a 5m buyout.

If you step back and realize that Cedric as good as he is on defense is a platoon player with a 710 to 721 OPS he is likely to consider a club option at 11M for 2026 with a 1M buyout IMO.

If you think differently please show the players with a 15m salary and that OPS.   That would be interesting.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I know many O's fans love Cedric.  And that is fine.   But Cedric has put up a 710 to 721 OPS for the last 3 years.    And while his defense is great not too many players with that OPS gets a 15m salary or a 5m buyout.

If you step back and realize that Cedric as good as he is on defense is a platoon player with a 710 to 721 OPS he is likely to consider a club option at 11M for 2026 with a 1M buyout IMO.

If you think differently please show the players with a 15m salary and that OPS.   That would be interesting.

Dansby Swanson got himself 9 figures with a career 95 OPS+ because, like Cedric, he plays a premium defensive position well.

And Cedric would only get the hypothetical $15 million for 2026 being discussed if he earned it because that is how club options work. To get him to even consider giving the Orioles a club option though, you would have to make it worth his while, and a $1 million dollar buyout definitely does not do so.

 

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The more pressing question is should Mullins be back with the team.

Yes. Why is this even a pressing question let alone a question at all?

He's been worth 6, 3.6, 1.9, and 2.3 fWAR over the last 4 years. He's 30, final year, plays solid to excellent defense, still has plenty of speed (averaged nearly 30 SB the last 4 years), great clubhouse guy, can actually hit righties well and he'll probably end up around $9-$10m. Think you play it back w/ Cowser and Mullins in LF/CF and spend your money on a replacement Santander (O'Neill?) and another OF. 

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

Dansby Swanson got himself 9 figures with a career 95 OPS+ because, like Cedric, he plays a premium defensive position well.

 

 

I don't know if this explains the Dansby Swanson contract accurately.  Yes, he plays a premium defensive position and does it fairly well, but he was just coming off back to back seasons with 25 and 27 homers.  There was a thought that his bat was finally coming around.  He was a 1st overall pick, teams will always gamble on a guy like that, especially if there's a whiff that he could reach his full potential.  

[Moose Milligan]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Yes. Why is this even a pressing question let alone a question at all?

He's been worth 6, 3.6, 1.9, and 2.3 fWAR over the last 4 years. He's 30, final year, plays solid to excellent defense, still has plenty of speed (averaged nearly 30 SB the last 4 years), great clubhouse guy, can actually hit righties well and he'll probably end up around $9-$10m. Think you play it back w/ Cowser and Mullins in LF/CF and spend your money on a replacement Santander (O'Neill?) and another OF. 

Because SG has wanted to trade him for years.  

IMO, I think Mullins is here to start the season but whether or not he's here for a full season hinges on what Bradfield does in the minors.

[DrinkinWithFermi]

2 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Yes. Why is this even a pressing question let alone a question at all?

He's been worth 6, 3.6, 1.9, and 2.3 fWAR over the last 4 years. He's 30, final year, plays solid to excellent defense, still has plenty of speed (averaged nearly 30 SB the last 4 years), great clubhouse guy, can actually hit righties well and he'll probably end up around $9-$10m. Think you play it back w/ Cowser and Mullins in LF/CF and spend your money on a replacement Santander (O'Neill?) and another OF. 

Bringing up his 6 WAR season here is kind of silly since it is plainly apparent that it was a massive outlier that is most likely never going to happen again. I would have stuck to the most recent 3 years, which are far more indicative of what to expect from him next year.

That said, he is a nice complimentary piece for the Orioles right now and there is no good reason to run him out of town before free agency.

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I don't know if this explains the Dansby Swanson contract accurately.  Yes, he plays a premium defensive position and does it fairly well, but he was just coming off back to back seasons with 25 and 27 homers.  There was a thought that his bat was finally coming around.  He was a 1st overall pick, teams will always gamble on a guy like that, especially if there's a whiff that he could reach his full potential.  

He was simply the first guy that came to mind, and while it's true that he'd been trending upward offensively, there were plenty of people (myself included whenever he was brought up here as a potential FA target) who were skeptical of his ability to sustain that level of offense. 

I don't think the Cubs take that gamble if he was an average (or even slightly above) defender at SS. The fact that his floor was an elite defender at a premium position with at least a league average-ish bat is probably what convinced them to take the plunge, which I feel is fairly analogous to the league-wide perception of Cedric.

[wildcard]

Swanson should not be in any discussion about Cedric.   

In 2022 Swanson had 766 OPS with the Braves.   The Cubs signed him to a 7/177m contract and his production has fallen to a 701 OPS in 2024.   I don't think most people would say that looks like a good contract right now.

There is nothing about Swanson's situation that makes him a good comp for Cedric IMO.

Edited 1 hour ago by wildcard

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

There is nothing about Swanson situation that makes him a good comp for Cedric IMO.

See

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

The fact that his floor was an elite defender at a premium position with at least a league average-ish bat is probably what convinced them to take the plunge, which I feel is fairly analogous to the league-wide perception of Cedric.

My point was that league average-ish hitters that play excellent defense at premium positions do get paid well.

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

See

My point was that league average-ish hitters that play excellent defense at premium positions do get paid well.

Do get paid foolishly at times.   Not smartly.