Taking a look at some early mock drafts...

[ChaosLex]

Obviously a bunch of crap but they're still fun to look at.

1 Washington Stephen Strasburg RHP San Diego State University 6'4" 220

2 Seattle Dustin Ackley 1B/OF University of North Carolina 6'1" 184

3 San Diego Alex White RHP University of North Carolina 6'3" 193

4 Pittsburgh Matt Purke LHP Klein HS, Texas 6'3" 170

5 Baltimore Grant Green SS USC 6'3" 180

6 San Francisco Mychal Givens SS H.B. Plant HS, Fla. 6'1" 185

7 Atlanta Donavan Tate OF Cartersville HS, Ga. 6'3" 205

8 Cincinnati Kyle Gibson RHP University of Missouri 6'6" 195

9 Detroit Ryan Jackson SS University of Miami 6'3" 180

10 Washington (Compensation for failure to sign Aaron Crow) Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley HS, Ca. 6'3" 185

http://www.mlbdraftsite.com/

Draft#:1

Washington

Stephen Strasburg

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:RHP

Drafted From:San Diego State

Draft#:2

Seattle

Dustin Ackley

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:CF/1B

Drafted From:UNC

Draft#:3

San Diego

Tyler Matzek

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:LHP

Drafted From:Capistrano Valley HS (Calif.)

Draft#:4

Pittsburgh

Donovan Tate

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:CF

Drafted From:Cartersville HS (GA)

Draft#:5

Baltimore

Grant Green

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:SS

Drafted From:USC

Draft#:6

San Francisco

Kyle Gibson

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:RHP

Drafted From:Missouri

Draft#:7

Atlanta

Alex White

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:RHP

Drafted From:UNC

Draft#:8

Cincinnati

Aaron Crow

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:RHP

Drafted From:Fort Worth Cats

Draft#:9

Detroit

Matt Purke

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:LHP

Drafted From:Klein HS (Tex.)

Draft#:10*

Washington

Brett Jackson

Ht/Wt:/ lbs

Position:OF

Drafted From:California

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2009

1st Overall - The Washington Nationals

Stephen Strasburg (RHP), San Diego State

Previous Mock: Same

Strasburg is still the top guy, thanks to his impressive showing in Beijing and in his dominant start to the season. Strasburg has a strong pitchers build, with a fastball that sits in the high 90’s, touching 100 on occasions. His fastball has good movement on it as well. He keeps his velocity deep into games, and his command is solid. He also has two other quality pitches in his changeup and his slider. He has great command over his stuff and has a great mound presence. However, there are some red flags coming up on Strasburg recently, mainly in his mechanics and pitching motion. Driveline Mechanics did a study on Strasburg, and found his mechanics to be troubling. The comparison that they came up with was of Mark Prior, which isn’t a great comp to pull up. They predict that he’ll probably lose velocity in time, and eventually have to have a major shoulder injury. Overall, he’s a solid prospect, and if he really is the ticking time bomb that Driveline Mechanics described him as, he’ll probably be useful until Scott Boras takes him to free agency. Now that Leatherpants is gone, Mike Rizzo is likely in charge. Rizzo never shied away from high priced talent in Arizona, and this isn’t going to change in Washington. He’ll get taken with the top pick and should rise really quickly. There’s even talk that he could start for whoever picks, and in my opinion, he could.

2nd Overall - The Seattle Mariners

Alex White (RHP), North Carolina

Previous Mock: Grant Green (SS), USC

Grant Green’s start to the season has me dropping him from the Mariners, who will instead take the next best pitcher in the draft. White isn’t quite as polished as Strasburg is, but he too has solid stuff. White throws in the low 90’s and is able to touch 95. Also in his favor is that his fastball has plenty of sink to it. He throws a slider that is just as effective, and has an average breaking ball, I think a changeup. He works quickly and his delivery is solid. There are some questions if he’s an ace, but overall, he should at least be a solid Number Two.

3rd Overall - The San Diego Padres

Grant Green (SS), USC

Previous Mock: Alex White (RHP), North Carolina

Green has had a inconsistent start to the season that so far sees his bat and his glove take a step back. So, he will likely fall, probably to San Diego at three. Normally, Green is an excellent defender with good range and soft hands. He’s a quality athlete and while he lacks elite speed, he is an effective base runner. He lacks significant power, and doesn’t walk real often. It’s possible he could be a 20-20 guy if he’s able to tap into his power potential, but right now, with him having trouble getting his bat and glove alive, he’s going to start dropping.

4th Overall - The Pittsburgh Pirates

Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats

Previous Mock: Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri

I considered whether or not to go with Crow’s upside or Gibson’s safety here. I figured, the hell with it, and went with Crow this time around, not that Gibson’s done anything to drop him. Selected with the 9th overall pick by Washington, Crow, his negotiators, and the Washington Front Office all had a comedy of errors that resulted in Crow returning to the draft. I’ve used to think that his delivery makes him a ticking time bomb, but he does repeat the delivery well. The success of pitchers like Tim Lincecum has made it a bit easier to take a shot on guys with unusual deliveries. Crow has great stuff. He throws a fastball with good movement that clocks in the high 90’s. He couples it with a bastard slider and a changeup that rates around average. He pounds the strike zone, but his command is a bit off because of his funky delivery. Still, the tools are there for him to be a potential big leaguer, possibly a good two, or even a one if the changeup and command improve. We’ll see what happens once the American Association starts up in May.

5th Overall - The Baltimore Orioles

Donovan Tate (OF), Georgia High School

Previous Mock: Mychal Givens (SS/RHP), Florida High School

Tate is one of the best raw athletes in the system. He’s got all of the five tools and good bloodlines (dad was Donovan Tate). He’s also a highly regarded football recruit, so it’s going take a lot to buy him out to baseball. He’s got some potential as a pitcher, as he throws 95, but his future is in the outfield. He’s got good pitch recognition and massive power potential. He has the speed, arm and rage for him to be an elite defensive centerfielder. What he does lack, however, is plate discipline. So he does have some risk to him, but his potential is through the roof. All in all, he’s got more upside than Givens, which makes him a good pick here.

6th Overall - The San Francisco Giants

Dustin Ackley (CF/1B), North Carolina

Previous Mock: Same

Ackley is possibly the best hitter available in this draft. However, despite his good plate discipline and solid speed, he’s still been limited to first base due to recovery from Tommy John. However, he is slowly transitioning back to the outfield and has even begun displaying a power spike recently. He’s rising, and it’s possible that Ackley will break into the Top Five in the next mock. He’d be perfect for San Francisco, though keeping an eye on his defensive play continues to bear watching.

7th Overall - The Atlanta Braves

Tyler Matzek (LHP), California High School

Previous Mock: Donovan Tate (CF), Georgia High School

Atlanta’s pick with it’s highest pick in years, so why not make it count. They do have their choice of the remaining college pitchers, like Gibson and Kendrall Volz, but I think they’ll got with the top high school lefty in the draft, Matzek. At six three, he shows lots of projection, but already has three pitches that project to be above average pitches. He throws around 90, touching 94 at times, while mixing in a curveball that is a borderline plus pitch. He also shows a solid slider and an idea of a changeup. Overall, he’s got the potential to be a Number Two Starter and is thought to be a relatively safe pick in terms of bust potential. Some rate Matthew Purke as the better arm, but Matzek is a bit safer, with little drop off.

8th Overall - The Cincinnati Reds

Kyle Gibson (RHP), Missouri

Previous Mock: Aaron Crow (RHP), Fort Worth Cats

There are several options that the Pirates could go for. Aaron Crow is a solid option here, though he would be just a slight overdraft. They could also go for the top high school athletes in Donovan Tate or Mychal Givens. However, I think that they’ll draft Crow’s former teammate Kyle Gibson. Due to Aaron Crow’s dominance, a lot of people forgot about Gibson. Gibson has a low 90’s fastball with some sink. He also throws a slider and a changeup, both of which are solid pitches as well. His command is average and his impressive height (6′6″), gives his stuff extra sink and movement. However, the same problem I had with Crow is the same problem I have with Gibson: the delivery. While Crow had that funky chicken wing type delivery, Gibson has a delivery similar to another big leaguer: Tim Lincecum. Like Lincecum, Gibson seems to slingshot the ball, but like Lincecum, he repeats the delivery well. Of the two, while Crow has the better velocity, Gibson is the more complete pitcher, so I would take him. Matthew Purke is also an option here.

9th Overall - The Detroit Tigers

Matt Purke (LHP), Texas High School

Previous Mock: Andy Oliver (LHP), Oklahoma State

The Tigers are fortunate in this mock, as they’ll likely be getting either Purke or Aaron Crow. In this mock, I’ve got them taking Purke. The other top lefty pitcher in this draft, Purke has a power pitcher’s frame at 6-4, and throws a big fastball that sits in the low 90’s, clocking as high as 94. One nice think about his fastball is that it has good sink. His breaking stuff isn’t far along right now, as his slider and curve could be quite solid once they are refined. He also throws a Vulcan changeup, but like many high school pitchers, he doesn’t use it much. His delivery draws a lot of disagreements. Some say it’s effortless, others say that it’s a reliever’s delivery. He also lacks control over his stuff, which hurts him further. Still, he’s a quality-pitching prospect with loads of projection, provided he harnesses his impressive stuff.

10th Overall - The Washington Nationals (Compensation For Aaron Crow)

Matt Davidson (3B), California High School

Previous Mock: Matt Graham (RHP), Texas High School

This one was a tough one, and with the Nationals are back on the board, and they will have their choice between the top college lefty or the beginnings of the top of the prep class. With Strasburg already in the fold, the Nationals might choose one of the prep bats in an effort to keep some money free to sign some other guys in the lower rounds. That doesn’t mean they won’t get a top talent. Matt Davidson is the top prep bat in this draft. He is a big kid that might not remain at the hot corner, but his bat is good. His best tool is his bat, his power potential in particular, which is among the highest among the prep bats in this drat class. In addition, he also makes decent contact and has shown the beginnings of some plate discipline. There have been some reports that he has improved his defense to the point where he’s tolerable, and could be acceptable in time. So, Davidson is my pick here…for now anyway.

http://morisato.realsportsbloggers.com/2009/04/15/morisatos-2009-mlb-mock-draft-version-20/

[Stotle]

Obviously a bunch of crap but they're still fun to look at.

http://www.mlbdraftsite.com/

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft-2009

http://morisato.realsportsbloggers.com/2009/04/15/morisatos-2009-mlb-mock-draft-version-20/

Some of these aren't bad, but I question how much HS/college baseball these guys have recently been watching. A lot of the players are slotted too high and a handful are might be slotted a round or two (or three) high.

[ChaosLex]

#1. Washington Nationals

Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State

#2. Seattle Mariners

Grant Green, SS, USC

#3. San Diego Padres

Dustin Ackley, CF/1B, UNC

#4. Pittsburgh Pirates

Alex White, RHP, UNC

#5. Baltimore Orioles

Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats

#6. San Francisco Giants

Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA)

#7. Atlanta Braves

Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri

#8. Cincinnati Reds

Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)

#9. Detroit Tigers

Robbie Shields, SS, Florida Southern

#10. Washington Nationals

Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee

http://leftcoastbias.mlblogs.com/archives/2009/01/mlb_mock_draft_2009_ii.html

1. Washington – RHP Stephen Strasburg (San Diego State): With a struggling pitching rotation and Strasburg being the best player in this year’s draft overall, this is a no-brainer.

2. Seattle – RHP Alex White (North Carolina): Fellow Tar Heel Dustin Ackley would be very tempting as he would provide much-needed relief at first base and in the outfield; but pitching is the focus right now, so White would be the better pick.

3. San Diego – 1B/OF Dustin Ackley (North Carolina): Replacing centerfielder Mike Cameron with Jim Edmonds will haunt them if the don’t draft Ackley. Edmonds just doesn’t have the range.

4. Pittsburgh – RHP Aaron Crow (Fort Worth Cats): Following the loss of Jason Bay in the three-team trade during this past season, the Pirates may be tempted to take outfielder Donovan Tate; but Crow would be my pick.

5. Baltimore – SS Grant Green (USC): I would be very tempted to take a guy like Matt Purke, but at this point, Green is just too good to pass on. Especially when Green has exploded this past year.

6. San Francisco – LHP Matt Purke (Klein HS, Texas): Once again, I strongly consider taking Donovan Tate, but I can’t pass on Purke, who has great command of his pitches and throws deep into games.

7. Atlanta – OF Donovan Tate (Cartersville HS, Georgia): While the Braves have a top outfield prospect in Jordan Schaefer, Tate is too good to pass on and Tate just can’t go any lower.

8. Cincinnati – RHP Kyle Gibson (Missouri): Coming off of a troubling season from the Red’s pitching, Gibson, who has good offspeed pitching and solid command, should provide some relief.

http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/seattle_seahawks_rule/2008/10/18/2009_MLB_Mock_Draft

1. Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State

2. Seattle Mariners - Alex White, RHP, UNC

3. San Diego Padres - Grant Green, SS, USC

4. Pittsburgh Pirates - Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats

5. Baltimore Orioles - Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, UNC

6. San Francisco Giants - Donovon Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA)

7. Atlanta Braves - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri

8. Cincinnati Reds - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA)

9. Detroit Tigers - Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX)

10. Washington Nationals* - Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State

http://www.sports2debate.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=20:version-10&catid=20:mlb-mock-draft&Itemid=26

1. Washington - Steven Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State - This is an obvious choice. I expect negotiations into mid-July and a month in the Majors.

2. Seattle - Dustin Ackley, 1B-CF, North Carolina - You know it's a tricky draft when there's no one that profiles as a true #2 pick. Ackley has added good pop this year, and while he hasn't been able to get back out to center field, there's still some chance of that happening in the long-term. Having a John Olerud-type first baseman isn't bad either.

3. San Diego - Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capistrano Valley HS (CA) - Matzek is the most polished of the high-profile high school pitchers, but he doesn't necessarily have the best arm. That being said, he'll probably go highest due to his advanced arsenal and extensive history.

4. Pittsburgh - Alex White, RHP, North Carolina - White has been on the prospect radar for quite awhile now, and his junior year has been good enough to keep him in the top 5. Pittsburgh has a histroy with college pitchers, and one can only hope the huge workload at UNC won't catch up to him.

5. Baltimore - Aaron Crow, RHP, Ft. Worth Cats - Crow is one of the unknowns at this point, as he hasn't even taken the mound yet in Indy ball. On pure stuff, he's second behind Strasburg, but the layoff might hurt him. However, it's a weaker draft than 2008, so he'll likely slot higher with a solid run in Ft. Worth.

6. San Francisco - Grant Green, SS, USC - Green was projected as high as #2 entering the season, but fielding problems and a lack of development in the power department has hurt him. Granted, he's still one of the hottest hitters in college baseball at the moment, but it will take some hard work to guarantee a top 5 spot come June.

7. Atlanta - Donovan Tate, OF, Cartersville HS (GA) - This almost seems too obvious. The Braves have an affinity for players from their own state, and the only question here to me is whether they go with Tate or a high school arm. They're very proficient selecting high school arms in the later rounds, so I think they go with the huge upside of Tate, signing him away from his UNC commitment.

8. Cincinnati - Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri - Gibson has been better than any college pitcher not named Strasburg this year, and that has launched him firmly into the top ten. However, he's not very refined for a college pitcher, and lingering questions about his mechanics means he's behind White and Crow, at least for now.

9. Detroit - Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX) - Miller might have the best pure arm of any high school pitcher in the 2009 draft, and Detroit's not shy with its love of flamethrowers like him. He's got true ace potential, but with less refinement than his high school counterparts expected to go in Round 1.

10. Washington - Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia - I know, I know. Poythress is not a top ten talent. However, with Strasburg's bonus and Poythress' huge coming out party this year, this is a solid pick for a team that might want quick returns. Poythress isn't on the level of an Alonso or Smoak, but I can easily see him being as good as David Cooper, who went #17 overall last year in a deeper draft.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2009/4/14/837665/2009-amateur-draft-mock-1

1.1 Washington Nationals - Stephen Strasburg

High card in the deck

Twenty mil sounds about right

More hype than Barack

1.2 Seattle Mariners - Dustin Ackley

Z’s first draft as boss

Will defense dictate the pick?

No, instead Gwynn twin

1.3 San Diego Padres - Aaron Crow

Pads secret code

Yes, “the Crow flies at midnight”

Sorry, that was lame

1.4 Pittsburgh Pirates - Grant Green

Recent failures sting

Imagine this young core group

Green, Wieters, Upton…

1.5 Baltimore Orioles - Alex White

O’s new strategy

Slay East goliaths on mound

White needs his slingshot

1.6 San Francisco Giants - Donovan Tate

First prep player popped

Same tools as Carlos Beltran

Football? Zero chance

1.7 Atlanta Braves - Tyler Matzek

Home state player gone

Choice of prep port or starboard

Can’t beat the upside

1.8 Cincinnati Reds - Kyle Gibson

A perfect marriage

Groundballs and overworked arm

Fits ballpark, Dusty

1.9 Detroit Tigers - Shelby Miller

Grab righty and pray

System as down as GM

Cars and Dombrowski

1.10 Washington Nationals - James Paxton

Signability

Target rising college guy

Hey, I’d sign for slot!

http://baseballdraftreport.wordpress.com/2009/04/17/quick-friday-top-ten-mock/

[hoosiers]

What a wide range of opinion after SS.

It's difficult to believe Green will make it past the Padres or Pirates. And I think Ackley will be gone.

As we surmised last week, I think we will be chosing from among most of Matzek, Crow, Purke, Gibson and White.

[allstar1579]

These just absolutely crack me up this time of year. First off, most of these guys don't scout, don't watch baseball, and don't know what they are talking about. They have a website, have some baseball knowledge, and just roam the web taking a composite of all the mock drafts they can find, shifting players around so it looks like they know what they are doing.

I've seen tons of them with Givens in the top 10 and then just as many with him going at like 27 or 28.

I've yet to see one with Davidson in the first round (ok, you can argue that one, but the kid's got game) and if these guys weren't just all basically copying each other to get names, and then inserting them in different orders, you'd see his name on a couple of them.

It also amuses me that people are still putting Tate in the top 5, over Ackley, when even in the worst case, you can say they are even for BPA at a certain pick, where the edge would go to Ackley because of Tate's commitment to UNC and playing football there.

Also...what is this crap about Gibson having an overworked arm? The guy has never been a starter for an entire year before this season, and was even a closer a couple years ago.

[crawdad]

What a wide range of opinion after SS.

It's difficult to believe Green will make it past the Padres or Pirates. And I think Ackley will be gone.

As we surmised last week, I think we will be chosing from among most of Matzek, Crow, Purke, Gibson and White.

Pittsburgh is going either pitching or Ackley. Green seems like true value at that position, but they also have Mercer and Cunningham at short right now. Both profile as average SS. Pitching makes more sense to me because they also have 1B and CF relatively filled for a while. They really need some pitching help and it seems there will be guys of equal value there.

San Diego? SS is a weakness in their system. I also think starting pitching is as well. I also think Ackley is the perfect kind of DePodesta/Alderson type of guy. I just doubt Green getting picked up here. I think you would have to love him with so many other options available. He just isn't the kind of guy SD targets early.

So . . . Pittsburgh . . . I'd be somewhat shocked.

San Diego . . . I'd be surprised, but they do have need. I think they would be better served selecting Ackley or a SP then target a high school SS in the 2-4 round area.

[wickedwitch]

Also...what is this crap about Gibson having an overworked arm? The guy has never been a starter for an entire year before this season, and was even a closer a couple years ago.

It's not necessarily crap. Gibson and other Missouri pitchers frequently reach high pitch counts during one game.

[allstar1579]

It's not necessarily crap. Gibson and other Missouri pitchers frequently reach high pitch counts during one game.

I'll give you that, but overall he hasn't pitched a lot of innings there in his career, and the college season is shorter than the pros, once it's over, he'll have his time to recoup and be perfectly fine.

It's not like he throws 150 pitches a day, on back to back days. Not to mention he's a big kid and added a lot to his frame this past season, I'm sure he can handle his workload right now.

[crawdad]

I'll give you that, but overall he hasn't pitched a lot of innings there in his career, and the college season is shorter than the pros, once it's over, he'll have his time to recoup and be perfectly fine.

It's not like he throws 150 pitches a day, on back to back days. Not to mention he's a big kid and added a lot to his frame this past season, I'm sure he can handle his workload right now.

Some notes:

1) you can have long term usage problems, game long usage problems, and inning long usage problems.

2) chronic conditions can originate from a single incident and often do as opposed to repeated use situations.

3) player size is a characteristic that does not seem to be well correlated to pitch counts and injuries.

[allstar1579]

Some notes:

1) you can have long term usage problems, game long usage problems, and inning long usage problems.

2) chronic conditions can originate from a single incident and often do as opposed to repeated use situations.

3) player size is a characteristic that does not seem to be well correlated to pitch counts and injuries.

True, you are correct, but for a guy that has decent mechanics, a healthy range of muscle to help protect some of the more freak injuries, and has had no usage abuse in the past why is this an issue all of a sudden?

It's like people are just looking for reasons to debunk guys, and I think this one is kind of weak. With the amounts of throwing they condition themselves to do playing HS, travel teams, showcases, and so on, I don't tend to worry about 21 year old kids who haven't even hit 250 IP after HS yet.

[hoosiers]

San Diego? SS is a weakness in their system. I also think starting pitching is as well. I also think Ackley is the perfect kind of DePodesta/Alderson type of guy. I just doubt Green getting picked up here. I think you would have to love him with so many other options available. He just isn't the kind of guy SD targets early.

SD has no need for Ackley at 1B with AGon and a top 1B prospect. If they want Ackley in CF, fine, but I doubt they draft a 1B.

I would be shocked if Pittsburgh went with a HSer. I think they take Green or a college SP.

[crawdad]

SD has no need for Ackley at 1B with AGon and a top 1B prospect. If they want Ackley in CF, fine, but I doubt they draft a 1B.

I would be shocked if Pittsburgh went with a HSer. I think they take Green or a college SP.

Right. If SD drafts Ackley, they have no interest in him being a 1B.

[allstar1579]

SD has no need for Ackley at 1B with AGon and a top 1B prospect. If they want Ackley in CF, fine, but I doubt they draft a 1B.

I would be shocked if Pittsburgh went with a HSer. I think they take Green or a college SP.

Yeah I think PIT is shooting for their chance to make some waves in the next year or so, so a guy like Crow who could join Snell and Maholm makes some sense. White hasn't shown me enough to be more than 10-15 range honestly. I could see Leake and Minor maybe going fringe 10, but as far as the top college arms there I'd say Gibson or Crow has to be the pick. I could see them taking Green, but I think apples and oranges there will be equal value for BPA there with one of the pitchers and they'll go that way.

[wayne25]

This is a nice thread and I appreciate whatever work went into it. Even if the mocks are off, I still get nuggets of info on some of the players. thanks

[ChaosLex]

The mock draft that has me puzzled is the one that has us taking Donovan Tate.

Don't get me wrong, I like Tate. I just find it hard to believe that we'd take him over Strasburg, White, Gibson, Matzek, Purke, Ackley or Green.

I seem to recall asking either Stotle, TyWright, Greg Pappas, or another one of our draft experts if Tate has the same upside as Heyward, and I was told, "no, they're not even in the same ballpark." Therefore, why on earth would we use our No. 5 pick on another "toolsy" ballplayer that plays a position we're already deep in? :scratchchinhmm: