Please practice your catching, House

[Dr. FLK]

This is probably a true statement, but I feel you fall back on this far too often. All the available evidence -- statistical, anecdotal, and inferential -- is that House would be a very poor defensive catcher by major league standards. And I will agree with you that the statistical evidence also shows that House would be a very good hitter for a back-up catcher, certainly way better than Paul Bako. So it basically becomes a defense vs. offense trade-off. How you weigh that trade-off depends on a lot of things, but mostly, how bad will his defense be and how good will his offense be.

Can we start with this question: assume House would allow one extra SB per game. What is that worth? Then we can go from there.

Honestly, I'd take that trade off compared to Bako's pathetic offense. I feel like some people (not saying you Frobby) have no idea just how bad he is.. The man has 7 RBIs. 7. That's 1 RBI every 20 ABs. He has an OPS of 566. I'm pretty sure my 4th grade niece could come close to that. And, with RISP, he's even worse. How does a 391 OPS with RISP sound? And yes, that's OPS...not OBP. This has to be one of the worst offensive seasons I have ever watched. And, if all I have to give up is 1 extra SB and a pass ball now and then to replace this pathetic excuse for a hitter with a potentially solid hitter...sign me up.

[Frobby]

Honestly, I'd take that trade off compared to Bako's pathetic offense. I feel like some people (not saying you Frobby) have no idea just how bad he is.. The man has 7 RBIs. 7. That's 1 RBI every 20 ABs. He has an OPS of 566. I'm pretty sure my 4th grade niece could come close to that. And, with RISP, he's even worse. How does a 391 OPS with RISP sound? And yes, that's OPS...not OBP. This has to be one of the worst offensive seasons I have ever watched. And, if all I have to give up is 1 extra SB and a pass ball now and then to replace this pathetic excuse for a hitter with a potentially solid hitter...sign me up.

Well, this is what I am asking. I really want to know, from our sabermetricians, how bad do they think defense has to be to make up for 100-200 points of OPS. Can we have some metrics here?

[Dr. FLK]

Well, this is what I am asking. I really want to know, from our sabermetricians, how bad do they think defense has to be to make up for 100-200 points of OPS. Can we have some metrics here?

I'd say a 100 point difference is being pretty conservative. Bako is horrendous.

[DrungoHazewood]

This is probably a true statement, but I feel you fall back on this far too often. All the available evidence -- statistical, anecdotal, and inferential -- is that House would be a very poor defensive catcher by major league standards. And I will agree with you that the statistical evidence also shows that House would be a very good hitter for a back-up catcher, certainly way better than Paul Bako. So it basically becomes a defense vs. offense trade-off. How you weigh that trade-off depends on a lot of things, but mostly, how bad will his defense be and how good will his offense be.

Can we start with this question: assume House would allow one extra SB per game. What is that worth? Then we can go from there.

This is something we have a very good idea about. Here's the 2007 Run Expectancy Matrix:

#	YEAR	RUNNERS	EXP_R_OUTS_0	EXP_R_OUTS_1	EXP_R_OUTS_21.	2007	000	0.52681	0.28144	0.109052.	2007	003	1.39815	0.98806	0.393313.	2007	020	1.16461	0.71666	0.35354.	2007	023	2.13081	1.44391	0.627295.	2007	100	0.91272	0.53155	0.23436.	2007	103	1.80339	1.20412	0.507587.	2007	120	1.48621	0.88028	0.465378.	2007	123	2.31803	1.57854	0.79511

From this you can figure out the average value of a stolen base, based on real 2007 major league data. For the purposes of this exercise let's assume the runner is stealing 2nd base (it looks like the value of stealing third is pretty similar anyway, and I really don't want to get into all the permutations of stealing with other runners on). With no one out the difference between a runner on 1st and a runner on 2nd is about 0.25 runs. With one out that's 0.18 runs. With two outs that's 0.12 runs. So on average that's about 0.18 runs/game.

On the offensive side of things BP has a stat called marginal lineup value. It measures the difference between the player in question and an average player, in runs per game played. As of today Paul Bako's value is -0.213. This means a team that scores 5.00 runs per game would score about 4.8 per game substituting Bako for their average-hitting catcher. Ramon Hernandez is sitting at 0.005, meaning in 2007 he's been almost exactly an average-hitting catcher. Hernandez, as we all know, is not having a particularly good year, putting up a .696 OPS. But even at that, his offense more than makes up for the estimated number of runs you'd lose by allowing an extra stolen base every game.

My assumption is that JR House would OPS .696 pretty easily. His career minor league OPS is .870, while Hernandez' was .837 (although that's not apples-to-apples since Hernandez has been in the majors since he was 24). House's 2007 weighted mean PECOTA is for a .765, which seems to match up fairly well with his .828 in an extreme pitcher's park in Norfolk.

[rolliefingers]

I believe I read somewhere that one's OPS at Norfolk's stadium is almost a 1:1 translation to ML performance - the logic being that the park is such an extreme advantage to pitchers that it approximates the difference between hitting AAA pitching and hitting ML pitching, in neutral parks.

Is that true? And if so, House sports an .839 OPS at Norfolk this season, better than on the road. So, whatever that's worth...

[Frobby]

This is something we have a very good idea about. Here's the 2007 Run Expectancy Matrix:

#	YEAR	RUNNERS	EXP_R_OUTS_0	EXP_R_OUTS_1	EXP_R_OUTS_21.	2007	000	0.52681	0.28144	0.109052.	2007	003	1.39815	0.98806	0.393313.	2007	020	1.16461	0.71666	0.35354.	2007	023	2.13081	1.44391	0.627295.	2007	100	0.91272	0.53155	0.23436.	2007	103	1.80339	1.20412	0.507587.	2007	120	1.48621	0.88028	0.465378.	2007	123	2.31803	1.57854	0.79511

From this you can figure out the average value of a stolen base, based on real 2007 major league data. For the purposes of this exercise let's assume the runner is stealing 2nd base (it looks like the value of stealing third is pretty similar anyway, and I really don't want to get into all the permutations of stealing with other runners on). With no one out the difference between a runner on 1st and a runner on 2nd is about 0.25 runs. With one out that's 0.18 runs. With two outs that's 0.12 runs. So on average that's about 0.18 runs/game.

On the offensive side of things BP has a stat called marginal lineup value. It measures the difference between the player in question and an average player, in runs per game played. As of today Paul Bako's value is -0.213. This means a team that scores 5.00 runs per game would score about 4.8 per game substituting Bako for their average-hitting catcher. Ramon Hernandez is sitting at 0.005, meaning in 2007 he's been almost exactly an average-hitting catcher. Hernandez, as we all know, is not having a particularly good year, putting up a .696 OPS. But even at that, his offense more than makes up for the estimated number of runs you'd lose by allowing an extra stolen base every game.

My assumption is that JR House would OPS .696 pretty easily. His career minor league OPS is .870, while Hernandez' was .837 (although that's not apples-to-apples since Hernandez has been in the majors since he was 24). House's 2007 weighted mean PECOTA is for a .765, which seems to match up fairly well with his .828 in an extreme pitcher's park in Norfolk.

Thank you. This is the type of analysis I find very helpful. As I posted earlier in the thread, there is a lot more to playing catcher than preventing SB's, but at least we now have some idea of what preventing SB's is worth.

[RShack]

From Trembley's comments it seems that this may not be a universal opinion in the organization. Maybe I'm wrong, but when Trembley says "I tried to get you here earlier" he's saying that he'd rather have House than the really old guy who can't hit a lick.

I think we can all agree that the most obvious motivation for DT's statement is that he likes House' bat.

I don't know why you would think that it implies that he likes House' defensive play, which is his demonstrated weakness. I don't know why you would think that he prefers House to other C's. Given how the O's roster has looked for some time, it seems more plausible that he prefers to have House' bat over carrying multiple no-hit IF'ers. Did I miss something? Is there something, anything, that indicates DT likes House as a ML C?

I think the best indicator of DT's opinion of him as a C will be how much DT plays him there... unless you subscribe to the theory that DT's hands are tied, that the Warehouse has decided to micromanage DT's lineup cards.

[Sports Guy]

I think we can all agree that the most obvious motivation for DT's statement is that he likes House' bat.

I don't know why you would think that it implies that he likes House' defensive play, which is his demonstrated weakness. I don't know why you would think that he prefers House to other C's. Given how the O's roster has looked for some time, it seems more plausible that he prefers to have House' bat over carrying multiple no-hit IF'ers. Did I miss something? Is there something, anything, that indicates DT likes House as a ML C?

I think the best indicator of DT's opinion of him as a C will be how much DT plays him there... unless you subscribe to the theory that DT's hands are tied, that the Warehouse has decided to micromanage DT's lineup cards.

Why?

This is a guy who has kept Fahey over Knott....Thinks Luis Hernandez should play everyday.

All it shows is DT's continued overemphasis on defense while ignoring the huge offensive differences.

[Since'54]

This is probably a true statement, but I feel you fall back on this far too often. All the available evidence -- statistical, anecdotal, and inferential -- is that House would be a very poor defensive catcher by major league standards. And I will agree with you that the statistical evidence also shows that House would be a very good hitter for a back-up catcher, certainly way better than Paul Bako. So it basically becomes a defense vs. offense trade-off. How you weigh that trade-off depends on a lot of things, but mostly, how bad will his defense be and how good will his offense be.

Can we start with this question: assume House would allow one extra SB per game. What is that worth? Then we can go from there.

I'd start with another question: What in the world do we have to lose by playing him and finding out whether he's a major leaguer? There could be a huge upside to letting him catch and letting the results speak for themselves..

[RShack]

I think the best indicator of DT's opinion of him as a C will be how much DT plays him there...

Why?

This is a guy who has kept Fahey over Knott....Thinks Luis Hernandez should play everyday.

All it shows is DT's continued overemphasis on defense while ignoring the huge offensive differences.

Different issue. I was talking about indicators of DT's opinion. You're talking about whether DT has a bozo opinion.

[Sports Guy]

Different issue. I was talking about indicators of DT's opinion. You're talking about whether DT has a bozo opinion.

They are the same issue.

If DT likes Bako behind the plate more, that's what he will do.

He values that more.

[rolliefingers]

I'd start with another question: What in the world do we have to lose by playing him and finding out whether he's a major leaguer? There could be a huge upside to letting him catch and letting the results speak for themselves..

The Orioles have done all the evaluation they need to do. They're the professionals, so leave it to them. MOVE ALONG NOW, NOTHING TO SEE HERE.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'd start with another question: What in the world do we have to lose by playing him and finding out whether he's a major leaguer? There could be a huge upside to letting him catch and letting the results speak for themselves..

That's what a lot of us have been saying for a long time. This is a 75-ish win team, with Paul Bako filling the role of backup catcher. Absolute worst case JR House catches a dozen games, allows 25 steals, they lose a few of those games they might not have with Bako, probably win a few with his bat they wouldn't have, and you figure out you probably want a different #2 catcher for '08. No real harm, and you have actual, real major league games for JR House to base opinions on.

That's all I've been asking of the Orioles for years - take these guys who're playing well in the minors and give them a chance. Every year August and September is junk time for the O's, playing out the string with any number of players who clearly won't be around the next time the O's crack .500. It won't hurt a thing to let the Houses and Knotts try.

[Frobby]

That's what a lot of us have been saying for a long time. This is a 75-ish win team, with Paul Bako filling the role of backup catcher. Absolute worst case JR House catches a dozen games, allows 25 steals, they lose a few of those games they might not have with Bako, probably win a few with his bat they wouldn't have, and you figure out you probably want a different #2 catcher for '08. No real harm, and you have actual, real major league games for JR House to base opinions on.

That's all I've been asking of the Orioles for years - take these guys who're playing well in the minors and give them a chance. Every year August and September is junk time for the O's, playing out the string with any number of players who clearly won't be around the next time the O's crack .500. It won't hurt a thing to let the Houses and Knotts try.

I think House will get his AB, it's just a matter of whether he's used at backup C or at DH. Gibbons' injury opens an opportunity for him even if he never dons the mask.

[Sports Guy]

I don't have any issue with what you're suggesting here, but lets not get confused as why you're suggesting it. You want to see him play because YOU want to be able to decide if he is capable or not. The Orioles have seen him play catcher a kazillion times between ST and the minors this year. I'm sure they have a very solid foundation for their opinions. Please don't act as if playing him at catcher in the majors will provide them information on whether he is capable defensively or not and act as if they are just ignoring this possibility at all. It just isn't true.

As fans, WE want to see him play to decide for ourselves. There is nothing wrong with that. There is something wrong with acting like the Orioles are ignoring the option and have no idea of his capability.

There is also something wrong that you think the Orioles are right in their opinion.

They may very well be but again, why they deserve any benefit of the doubt is beyond me.