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I'm a little disappointed in AM

CumberlandFan

By CumberlandFan
in Orioles Talk

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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Holliday is young? Beltre and Lackey are young? What young proven talent are you refering to? FA's are almost always past their peak performance years and you are paying for their plateau and decline years. We are stockpiling young, 25 and under, talent so that we should have more than just one sucessfull SP. I would say that Jones and Reimold have already proven themselves serviceable and the real question is just how good they can be. Ditto Matusz. But these are issues of talent evaluation by duffers, so more latin aplies here. De gustibus non est disputandum.:laughlol:

To me the real question is why people are "banking" on this team to be 18 games better in 2012 even if AM does nothing else substantial to improve the talent on this team?The fallicy in this line of thought is that the Yankees, Boston and Tampa are not going to continue to increase their already far more talent laden clubs. None of them have shown that they are going to make moves to reduce their talent. So that train of thought just seems beyond stupid to me.

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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To me the real question is why people are "banking" on this team to be 18 games better in 2012 even if AM does nothing else substantial to improve the talent on this team?The fallicy in this line of thought is that the Yankees, Boston and Tampa are not going to continue to increase their already far more talent laden clubs. None of them have shown that they are going to make moves to reduce their talent. So that train of thought just seems beyond stupid to me.

It's because of their already impressive track record, flashes they've all already shown at the ML level. It's not a blind assumption that they will get better. They won't all, but I'd bet a lot more improve than regress.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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So that train of thought just seems beyond stupid to me.

That train is beyond stupid. You just don't comprehend what direction the train is traveling, or what station on the line you're standing at.

O5F Theories ------> Stupid ---------(Train) ------> Wisdom.

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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It's because of their already impressive track record, flashes they've all already shown at the ML level. It's not a blind assumption that they will get better. They won't all, but I'd bet a lot more improve than regress.

And I bet a lot more Yankee and Boston players will improve more than they regress and the sad fact remains that they are already WAY better right NOW!:(

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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Really, which ones, and why?

There are few if any Boston and Yankee players that I would not take that are manning their positions over the Orioles manning theirs including the entire starting rotation. Only Wieters would be a lock because of his age, although Martinez of Boston probably puts up better numbers.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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To me the real question is why people are "banking" on this team to be 18 games better in 2012 even if AM does nothing else substantial to improve the talent on this team?The fallicy in this line of thought is that the Yankees, Boston and Tampa are not going to continue to increase their already far more talent laden clubs. None of them have shown that they are going to make moves to reduce their talent. So that train of thought just seems beyond stupid to me.

I'm estimating a 10 win improvement from our core. That assumes that not all of them will improve. If they all played to their ceilings they would be worth a 25 game improvement IMO.

Ceilings:

Jones .900+ OPS

Markakis .900+ OPS

Reimold .850+OPS

Pie .850 OPS

Wieters .900+OPS

Matusz CY 20 W -3.00 ERA

Tillman 18-20 W -4.00 ERA

Bergy 12-16 W -4.00 ERA

Guthrie 12-15 W -4.00 ERA

Millwood 12-15 W -4.00 ERA

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scOtt Hangout Grand Counsel

scOtt

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And I bet a lot more Yankee and Boston players will improve more than they regress and the sad fact remains that they are already WAY better right NOW!:(

They're almost all vets, you know what you're going to get. Great production, no doubt, but no improvement.

We have a LOT of players who could make a big jump this year.

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Lucky Jim Hangout Grand Counsel

Lucky Jim

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There are few if any Boston and Yankee players that I would not take that are manning their positions over the Orioles manning theirs including the entire starting rotation. Only Wieters would be a lock because of his age, although Martinez of Boston probably puts up better numbers.

That's not what I asked. You said that "a lot more Yankee and Boston players will improve more than they regress". I asked which ones, and why.

So tell us: who will improve over their 2009 performance?

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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That's not what I asked. You said that "a lot more Yankee and Boston players will improve more than they regress". I asked which ones, and why.

So tell us: who will improve over their 2009 performance?

I would venture to say most if not all will do as well or improve. If not, their proactive GM's will replace them if they slump horribly by the AS break. You know full well how these winning non-payroll challenged evil empires operate.:rolleyes:

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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And I bet a lot more Yankee and Boston players will improve more than they regress and the sad fact remains that they are already WAY better right NOW!:(

If I were the MFY's I would prefer AJ to Granderson, Markakis to Swisher, BRob to Cano(short term) Reimold/Pie to ? LF, Wieters to Posada, Matusz to Hughes.

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Old#5fan Hangout Grand Counsel

Old#5fan

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If I were the MFY's I would prefer AJ to Granderson, Markakis to Swisher, BRob to Cano(short term) Reimold/Pie to ? LF, Wieters to Posada, Matusz to Hughes.

I think your Orange and Black bias is showing through (nothing wrong with that) but Cano is way better than Roberts. I saw a show on the MLB network where he was voted the top second baseman in the AL over the past five seasons and Roberts was like third. I think Markakis and Swisher and Matusz and Hughes are a wash.

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El Gordo Hangout Grand Counsel

El Gordo

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I think your Orange and Black bias is showing through (nothing wrong with that) but Cano is way better than Roberts. I saw a show on the MLB network where he was voted the top second baseman in the AL over the past five seasons and Roberts was like third. I think Markakis and Swisher and Matusz and Hughes are a wash.
I don't think the Yankees would agree with you.:rolleyestf:
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