2010 Draft... Could the O's pull another surprise?

[Greg Pappas]

Fair question- after the Hobgood pick last year. Could Joe Jordan sign another surprise "slot" guy and skip over the perceived chance at a premiere talent like Taillon or Machado? If so, whom might he take a stab at?

Perhaps he goes with a guy that would not be perceived as a risky pick, and tabs a 'safe' collegian like Zack Cox, Christian Colon, or Drew Pomeranz?

It's tough to know for sure, but I think he'll skip the surprises this year. Time will tell.

[cmwebb24]

You want a shock, with a "safe" collegian... Wimmers.

Far-fetched, but not as far-fetched as you might think.

Many believe he's safer than Pomeranz, and I know Cleveland at 5 is seriously considering him.

[Greg Pappas]

You want a shock, with a "safe" collegian... Wimmers.

Far-fetched, but not as far-fetched as you might think.

Many believe he's safer than Pomeranz, and I know Cleveland at 5 is seriously considering him.

Wimmers is a good pitcher, and would certainly fall into that 'surprise' pick. I don't see it happening, but then again, I was thrown a vicious curve last draft.

[QBsILLEST1]

After last year, I'm not sure I can be surprised. I guess I'll be surprised if they actually take Taillon if he's there.

I agree, BUT, Joe Jordan I think sees the value in Taillon here. He realizes that the kid is a special talent. He has arguably the best FB in his class, yet he also knew he had to learn other pitches to become a successful MLer, so he came up with a devastating curve which I have also heard tabbed as the best curve of his class(of prep arms). Then, this year he unleashes a new pitch, the slider which is considered a plus offering. He also has a changeup with again above average ML potential.

We didn't take Matzek last year which rubbed many the wrong way, but we have to remember, our organization takes intangibles into account quite heavily. Matzek apparently rubbed JJ the wrong way as far as character is concerned and he didn't think Matzek was worth the $7M or so bonus demand. Furthermore, Matzek had much more value wrapped up in projection of his stuff and his frame. So, he didn't have quite as good present day stuff as Taillon, but it projected to be somewhat similarly.

The fact that Taillon has the present stuff that every scouting director drool, rather than projected to have that tremendous stuff, he is a bit safer in that aspect, which makes for a better investment and may also help push JJ toward Jamo.

And to answer the thread topic, yes I could see a surprise looming, but I certainly hope not. Being how similar this draft is to the 09 draft with the large amount of quality HS kids who will drop due to bonus demands, anything is possible....

[PBR Street Gang]

I think Jordan's job is on the line with this draft. If his top picks don't pan out immediately I'd look for a head to roll.

[Arthur_Bryant]

I think Jordan's job is on the line with this draft. If his top picks don't pan out immediately I'd look for a head to roll.

How do draft picks pan out immediately?

[Stotle]

I just don't see this draft being one where the pick should be up for much debate at #3.

1. Harper

2. Taillon

3. Whitson

4. The rest

Machado gets Taillon pub from a lot of evaluators, so throw him up with Taillon if you'd like, but the rest is a clear step behind. In my opinion, this is a draft with a clear top 3 (or 4 if you'd like); it's really hard for me to picture there being a reasonable "signability" pick at 1:3, particularly with no second rounder to pay for.

[Stotle]

Are those the consensus top 3? I don't recall Whitson being a consensus top three to this point. All along there's been a consensus top 2.

No, I said, "in my opinion this is a draft with a clear top 3 (or 4 if you like)."

The idea of a consensus top 3 is not reality -- there is a lot more variation in pro evaluation than most fans would believe. But, yes, Whitson is a clear #3 for me, and I know of at least two orgs that are very high on him (for whatever that is worth).

[cmwebb24]

Agree with Stotle. I'd fringe a bit from extending it to four, keeping it at three listed as I'm not as high on Pomeranz and Machado. While clear doesn't mean consensus by any means the divide is sharp enough to say "thats the top 3".

Hammed it up pretty good the last week with scouts, after you get past the "clear 3" you basically have a free for all that you just hope the dominoes fall in your way. The variability on where the next I don't know 7-12 are on draft boards is a bit insane. Example, I know one team that has Allie in their top five, I know another that doesn't have him in their top 35 (regardless of signability)

Might as well get use to it. I don't see 2011 providing much more of a clear picture as well, although 2011 is due to the insane amount of talent, unlike this year where there is a lot of "we like him, don't love him"

[allstar1579]

Agree with Stotle. I'd fringe a bit from extending it to four, keeping it at three listed as I'm not as high on Pomeranz and Machado. While clear doesn't mean consensus by any means the divide is sharp enough to say "thats the top 3".

Hammed it up pretty good the last week with scouts, after you get past the "clear 3" you basically have a free for all that you just hope the dominoes fall in your way. The variability on where the next I don't know 7-12 are on draft boards is a bit insane. Example, I know one team that has Allie in their top five, I know another that doesn't have him in their top 35 (regardless of signability)

Might as well get use to it. I don't see 2011 providing much more of a clear picture as well, although 2011 is due to the insane amount of talent, unlike this year where there is a lot of "we like him, don't love him"

Yeah, that's how it is for me too. Top 2 I love, then a couple players I like, and then some I just don't at all. If we were picking at #10 I could have a couple different answers, but I'm just not sold on most of them at #3. You can lump together Machado, Castellanos, Cole, Whitson, McGuire and a few others and draw out of a hat almost.

Allie I think a lot of it has to do with some teams still projecting him as a starter and some projecting him as a RP, I'm not a huge fan as a starter, and then as a closer you have to say, where is his stuff now, compared to where Drew Storen for example was at this age, and can he handle being a closer? You don't draft many HS arms as a RP in the first round.

[RVAbird]

After last year, I'm not sure I can be surprised. I guess I'll be surprised if they actually take Taillon if he's there.

No inside info here or anything, but just from the whispers I've heard around the scouting/blogging community I get the impression that Taillon is Jordan's guy.

I think if he's there he's ours. If he goes #2 things get much more interesting, and I'll be pretty disappointed.

[cmwebb24]

I've seen Allie twice this year. Still unsure what to make of him personally.

I just threw his name out there as an example of how uncertain things are this year. You could throw about 15 other names that are still incredibly hard to pencil in. With hard being a good 20 to a round difference in where they go.

I've been asked to do a mock, I can't. It's just too frustrating this year.

[cmwebb24]

No inside info here or anything, but just from the whispers I've heard around the scouting/blogging community I get the impression that Taillon is Jordan's guy.

I think if he's there he's ours. If he goes #2 things get much more interesting, and I'll be pretty disappointed.

The sentiment is there definitely and it's the one to place money on, but as you mention if he goes 2, good luck.

To me, while it would be a shot in the arm to get Jamison, if I were an O's fan what Jordan does with his other top 5 picks would be where I give up or continue supporting him. While the draft isn't heavy up front with stars, it is deep enough to add great value through round 5, especially with the college bats, which this system is in dire need of.

This is a year to grab someone to make up for a Miclat or Hudson who to me at the time didn't warrant a selection that high, and really haven't done much to project hope for the O's offensively.

You can get away with a surprise in round one this year, especially if Taillon is gone. I don't think he can afford a surprise from 3-5, and that is where he needs to hit.

[Stotle]

I just don't see this draft being one where the pick should be up for much debate at #3.

Well, this is what you said, which kind of seems like everyone would agree on #3, if the choice was one of Harper, Taillon, or Whitson. If it's just your opinion and it's not widely held (consensus) then it would up for debate, wouldn't it?

I know this post is going to tick you off which is what usually happens in this type of instance. I'm not doing it to tick you off. There is a different meaning to how you said it in one post and how you are saying it now, unless I missed something in between.

If I personally think those three are the clear top three, then my feelings are that I don't see how the pick can be much of a debate. I acknowledge that Machado is listed by some as a top 5, so I threw his name in as well. I acknowledge that evaluators have names all over the board, every which way (some think there isn't a hitter worth taking until around pick 15; some think there are three bats that are surefire top 5). But that doesn't mean I don't personally feel like this is a straightforward situation.

EDIT -- I generally type my opinion, as I don't think you can accurately gauge consensus amongst the organizations in the draft. All you have to do is peak in on names that are "floating" around the likes of ESPN's Draft page and Jim Callis's coverage to see that there is a WIDE disparity in evaluation with this class. One team with a top 10 pick doesn't even think there will be a talent available worth slot...

[allstar1579]

I've seen Allie twice this year. Still unsure what to make of him personally.

I just threw his name out there as an example of how uncertain things are this year. You could throw about 15 other names that are still incredibly hard to pencil in. With hard being a good 20 to a round difference in where they go.

I've been asked to do a mock, I can't. It's just too frustrating this year.

Yeah, I followed you, was a good example. Renaudo and Harvey could be another...potential versus lack of results, although I never really liked Renaudo that much and never really had a good reason for it.

I've kinda sat back and just watched more this year instead of trying to weigh, compare and opine as much as I have the past couple years. My early favorites were Cole, Castellanos, Taillon and Y. Cabrera, so I've really just kinda been watching to see how they turn out, following everyone would be maddening this year.

As you said, if JT is gone at #3, it gets dicey. Personally I'd just take the risk on Castellanos, he'd sign for slot if he's projected more 10-15, and then try to scoop some talent in 3-5 near the 7-figure range.